September ‘24 Yankee

[Quevega]

I'd argue that fast accurate jumping is more crucial over the shorter trip on the tighter track.

I'd argue that there's no argument and what you've said is pretty factual.
Could easily be something Mullins mentions in a stable tour with a view to possibly stepping El Fab up in trip.
One obvious thing the longer trip provides for a slightly sketchy jumper is a little more time to get over any mistakes, but realistically any mistake at grade one level against good horses then you're up against it anyhow.
I think it will depend on how each horse runs before Cheltenham as to the race they compete in I reckon.
Neither offer any value as a bet right now IMO.

[Saxon Warrior]

It's a good debate to have on here but like Impaire Et Passe and Ballyburn, Paul will want both rides.

So I'd say they are likely to be split.

He's got Il Etait Temps too as a potential Ryanair pick.

I'm sure there will be others too as the season progresses

It would be important for Willie to get his QMCC horses sorted far more than the Ryanair, so the season will determine that.

Personally I'd be thinking GW will end up in the QMCC if all goes well. Quite possibly El Fab too,.

Particularly if he has a couple of decent ones for the Ryanair. (Il Etait Temps would be one of those as of now).

Nothing stopping us having Gaelic in the Ryanair as a fallback position type pick though

I don't think everything we've backed in prior months has been nailed on for a specific race, so this would be just another one along the way - if picked.

We've got him in the QMCC already I think

[Odin]

I'd argue that fast accurate jumping is more crucial over the shorter trip on the tighter track.

Normally yes, but there's an additional fence in the last mile on the New course vs the Old course which I'd argue makes the jumping more important for 2.5mile Ryanair vs the 2mile QMCC

[Istabraq]

Nothing stopping us having Gaelic in the Ryanair as a fallback position type pick though

Worth noting that a few go NRNB from 1st Jan for championship races plus Ryanair, obviously there'll be very little value when that happens but when you're playing yankees one non runner takes out 7 of the 11 bets....

[Exar Essay]

It's just my opinion, but I think it's highly unlikely that Gaelic Warrior ends up in the Ryanair without his price being bigger in the interim.

Willie knows he goes well on the old chase course so why risk a change? Also, we know the record Arkle winners have in the QMCC.

The only way I see Gaelic not ending up in the QMCC is if he is soundly beaten at least once by El Fab or one of Willie's others. Even then, Willie may give him the benefit of the doubt given what happened at the DRF last year. He'd be a great 'joker' for Willie to play in case it goes wrong for El Fab again as it did this year.

If he is beaten so soundly that he ends up in the Ryanair, he'll surely be more than 7/1 at some point and we'd have more information to hand (and probably NRNB).

[Black Dog]

Normally yes, but there's an additional fence in the last mile on the New course vs the Old course which I'd argue makes the jumping more important for 2.5mile Ryanair vs the 2mile QMCC

It's getting to the last mile that was the problem . Anyway I think Gaelic, El Fabiolo, Il etait temps and Energumene are all Champion Chase runners first and foremost until Willie decides they're not,and that's how I've played it so far,with the exception of Energumene (injury and age).

[Saxon Warrior]

Worth noting that a few go NRNB from 1st Jan for championship races plus Ryanair, obviously there'll be very little value when that happens but when you're playing yankees one non runner takes out 7 of the 11 bets....

That is a good point Istabraq

I suppose we need to determine if we put "second pick" races into a Yankee, at all, given the fallout of not even running in the race decimates the chance to make a profit.

Depends what the majority want, I suppose, to take a risk or if they want to find and back genuine Plan A horses (or a strong opinion on what Plan A is), in this group bet discussion.

At this point I dont think there much chance at all that the Ryanair is Plan A for Gaelic Warrior.

[Istabraq]

I’m just waiting for irony of all ironies and he gets sent to the Stayers, i’ll be torn between laughing, crying and launching myself off the lev 5 balcony….

[Odin]

Now I'm absolutely baffled I see things so differently to everyone else

Ah well, at least it sparked some conversation

[Kautostar]

I can’t see el fabiolo being stepped up in trip he’s a fast 2miler imo who admittedly has a mistake in him which happened at the worst possible moment last season. The Sandown race was never going to play to his strengths and probably wasn’t totally over that mistake both mentally and physically at the point. Willie just wanted a runner for prize money for the trainers championship. He’s got unfinished business in the champion chase.
I expect Gaelic warrior may target the tingle creek and then take it from there but he’d be my idea of the Ryanair winner at this stage.

[Istabraq]

I can’t see el fabiolo being stepped up in trip he’s a fast 2miler imo who admittedly has a mistake in him which happened at the worst possible moment last season.

Yep, I’d suggest the longer the race, and the more obstacles he faces, the more his chances reduce….

[HoldenTheReins]

Yep, I’d suggest the longer the race, and the more obstacles he faces, the more his chances reduce….

Could see GW bowl out in front like Allaho and put them to bed early

[Black Dog]

Now I'm absolutely baffled I see things so differently to everyone else

Ah well, at least it sparked some conversation

Doesn't mean you're wrong. When all's said and done we're all trying to second guess Willie.

[Zachx02]

Could see GW bowl out in front like Allaho and put them to bed early

Exactly how I see it, Vautour route with him going KG on the way there

[fatherjohn]

looking at what willie tends to do with his best 2m novice chasers theres not much precedent for him sending them up trip next season to the ryanair.

the exception was duc de genievres but he never went onto win the ryanair. probably because he couldnt believe hed won an arkle.

min and un de sceaux both did well in arkle and went onto win the ryanair but both were aimed at qmcc the first year after the arkle. I can't find any arkle winner from willie than won the ryanair the following year.

its not like any horse is the same as those before it but I do think willie will give the arkle winner the option to stay at 2m for qmcc as that is what he has done with his better arkle horses before.