June ‘24 Yankee

[Saxon Warrior]

I'm working up the strength to update the Willie Mullins Diary and Gordon Elliott Diary with all their 140-ish horses they ran at the Festival with their race results.

Also would mean reworking stats on their horses in each race, each horses race routes through the season, and stats on where some of the Grade 1 races winners come from (regardless of the winning trainer).

Also have to strip out the form stats etc of the 11th year (2014) to keep trends at 10 years 2015-2024 (not 2014-2023)

When I do that work, something tumbles out of the woodwork as I'm doing it, or strengthens the case of something I already like.

I tend to blank out how long it takes each summer to do this, immediately after I've done it.
As its such a tricky, time-consuming, piece of work.

But, my wife is away for 3 days, so maybe that opens a door to crack on with that work from tomorrow, for 3 days.

...and see how far I can get with it.

With a break one evening to visit the Cinema for the latest Planet of the Apes film, with a mate.

...and yes, there were one or two from Punchestown and Aintree worth consideration.

[JackieMoon33]

….certainly the two threads I was suggesting, indeed I might know the Yankee already

I'd be very wary of my thread in terms of potential targets. I couldn't say with any certainty which discipline any of them will be running under as some will take in bumpers and some might go straight hurdling. That's before I even try and predict what trip they might take in if they do go hurdling.

The one horse we do share is Kopek Des Bordes although I think we'll differ in terms of what race we think he may end up in. Saxon is in the Gallaghers camp but I've begun to lean towards the Supreme, although not with great conviction.

[Exar Essay]

I'd be very wary of my thread in terms of potential targets. I couldn't say with any certainty which discipline any of them will be running under as some will take in bumpers and some might go straight hurdling. That's before I even try and predict what trip they might take in if they do go hurdling.

The one horse we do share is Kopek Des Bordes although I think we'll differ in terms of what race we think he may end up in. Saxon is in the Gallaghers camp but I've begun to lean towards the Supreme, although not with great conviction.

Two for the Supreme. That is where the owners "hope" he ends up too, but we all know owners' thoughts matter zilch at Closutton.

[Eggs]

I'd be very wary of my thread in terms of potential targets. I couldn't say with any certainty which discipline any of them will be running under as some will take in bumpers and some might go straight hurdling. That's before I even try and predict what trip they might take in if they do go hurdling.

The one horse we do share is Kopek Des Bordes although I think we'll differ in terms of what race we think he may end up in. Saxon is in the Gallaghers camp but I've begun to lean towards the Supreme, although not with great conviction.

…..Kopek was one I took as well as Minella Premium because they were widely supported. Threads like yours contain terrific reference material, a bit like a jigsaw when there’s an accumulation of detail. You’re highlighting potential for next season. It’s a bit of a lottery when it comes to target, but it’s why there could be a little value in odds on offer.

i do get a sense most posters are after safer options, two I took from Saxon’s Punchestown thread are ile Etait Temps 14-1 (Ry) and Sixandahalf (MNH) both 14-1. Again, both would come with an element of risk.

Good discussion, keep thoughts coming and hopefully MoM pops in to provide his view.

[HesTheOne]

I'm working up the strength to update the Willie Mullins Diary and Gordon Elliott Diary with all their 140-ish horses they ran at the Festival with their race results.

Also would mean reworking stats on their horses in each race, each horses race routes through the season, and stats on where some of the Grade 1 races winners come from (regardless of the winning trainer).

Also have to strip out the form stats etc of the 11th year (2014) to keep trends at 10 years 2015-2024 (not 2014-2023)

When I do that work, something tumbles out of the woodwork as I'm doing it, or strengthens the case of something I already like.

I tend to blank out how long it takes each summer to do this, immediately after I've done it.
As its such a tricky, time-consuming, piece of work.

But, my wife is away for 3 days, so maybe that opens a door to crack on with that work from tomorrow, for 3 days.

...and see how far I can get with it.

With a break one evening to visit the Cinema for the latest Planet of the Apes film, with a mate.

...and yes, there were one or two from Punchestown and Aintree worth consideration.

The mammoth work begins Thought the latest Ape movie was a very good watch by the way!

[Eggs]

….still no sign of MOM, hopefully all is ok and he can give us his steer. Until then, keep the thought coming.

Do we stay with same group of almost certain targets, do we take a bit of a punt or do we mix it up a bit?

[Saxon Warrior]

The mammoth work begins Thought the latest Ape movie was a very good watch by the way!

Enjoyed the Apes film very much

And over the last 3 days, I managed to update all of the Cheltenham races in the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott Diaries (incl one long marathon input session on it until 3am last night)

Always pleased to finish that work.

[Eggs]

Enjoyed the Apes film very much

And over the last 3 days, I managed to update all of the Cheltenham races in the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott Diaries (incl one long marathon input session on it until 3am last night)

Always pleased to finish that work.

…..I’m sure I speak for all in thanking you for that effort, & not forgetting Mrs Sax for giving you the opening to complete it

[Spectre]

….still no sign of MOM, hopefully all is ok and he can give us his steer. Until then, keep the thought coming.

Do we stay with same group of almost certain targets, do we take a bit of a punt or do we mix it up a bit?

I'd say after getting most of the main horses onside, and with little happening right now it might be worth getting a proper each way haymaker onside this month and next. Maybe selections at 16/1+?

Kopek could be interesting perhaps? The Arkle would be weak if Ballyburn doesn't go there. Better Days Ahead or Stellar Story for the NH Chase. Surely one or the other will be Elliott's for that? A Gold Cup non-stayer like L'homme Presse perhaps dropping to the Ryanair a la Protektorat, Or a second season chaser that that might be better up in trip for the Ryanair like a current personal favourite of mine Found A Fifty.

Going through the markets there are lots of possibles, and I could name at least a dozen that could be interesting for this. Others will have more horses to add to the list.. Maybe build a list and have a vote?

Either way, there's no current suggestion, so I think you should make whatever call you want to Eggs. Otherwise the month will just drift past us.

[JackieMoon33]

I'd say after getting most of the main horses onside, and with little happening right now it might be worth getting a proper each way haymaker onside this month and next. Maybe selections at 16/1+?

Kopek could be interesting perhaps? The Arkle would be weak if Ballyburn doesn't go there. Better Days Ahead or Stellar Story for the NH Chase. Surely one or the other will be Elliott's for that? A Gold Cup non-stayer like L'homme Presse perhaps dropping to the Ryanair a la Protektorat, Or a second season chaser that that might be better up in trip for the Ryanair like a current personal favourite of mine Found A Fifty.

Going through the markets there are lots of possibles, and I could name at least a dozen that could be interesting for this. Others will have more horses to add to the list.. Maybe build a list and have a vote?

Either way, there's no current suggestion, so I think you should make whatever call you want to Eggs. Otherwise the month will just drift past us.

I never do an ante post multiple with horses less than 12/1, although I sometimes have to be flexible given some of the muck prices the bookies put up these days.

[Saxon Warrior]

Like JackieMoon33 has said, I would rarely get interested in a long range "out of season" yankee/multi unless the prices were double-figures.

Too many instances of shorties not making races they were meant to have big chances of winning, and usually feels more gutting when they don't make it, c/w any longshots.

Once the season gets going, everything has debuted, then the picture is clearer, but through the summer Im all for taking swings at things.

[Istabraq]

Once the season gets going, everything has debuted, then the picture is clearer, but through the summer Im all for taking swings at things.

Agree with this.
I've been off the ball for a few weeks and may well have missed crucial updates but the whole 'review' thing casts doubt on whether races will exist or whether their conditions will alter, this makes this years task much tougher.
I know the BHA do little at pace and can't be trusted to implement any worthwhile change but if they are serious about improving the festival which means changes to multiple races, it makes ante post punting for 2025 tough.
You might think staple races like the Arkle, BANC etc won't change and their conditions won't, but any major shake up of the Turners or NH Chase could change the face of the staple races.
The whole novice in handicap discussion, if someone has the balls to call that then every novice race changes hugely.
Tough few months ahead I think...

[Lobos]

Spot on Ista. Can't believe that any changes will be implemented for 2025 but we all know the BHA are tossers and don't give a shit re punters. As you say, if big changes are made to the races you quote then there will be a horrible knock on effect which will only disadvantage punters.

Best to just stick to the Championship races if anything.

It's the reason this forum has been so quiet. Everything is up in the air.

[Istabraq]

Spot on Ista. Can't believe that any changes will be implemented for 2025 but we all know the BHA are tossers and don't give a shit re punters. As you say, if big changes are made to the races you quote then there will be a horrible knock on effect which will only disadvantage punters.

Best to just stick to the Championship races if anything.

It's the reason this forum has been so quiet. Everything is up in the air.

Sadly punters, the very people who fund the sport, are a long way down the list of priorities at BHA HQ....

[somer1]

Still happy to go with a Sax/Jackie Moon yankee. Prices are shit and cant keep doing the same races can we?