June ‘24 Yankee

[Eggs]

….still no sign of Mom, hope all is ok and he will be back this month. In the meantime, I’ve had a look through the Diary section and picked out some considerations.


Kopek des Bordes (25-1 Sup/Bally although 33-1 Bally with Sky): W Mullins. Saxon reckons his was the ‘best bumper performance of the season’, whilst Jackie Moon said ‘a good thing for next year’. Saxon highlighted ‘Gallagher’ as most likely target whilst Jackie prefers to sit on the fence regarding distance.

Minella Premier (33-1 Sup, 25-1 Gall); Ranked 1st in Jackie’s 4yo PTP list. Won very well, bought for £400k and sent to Nicky Henderson & consequently posters thought Supreme might be more likely.

Can’t see 1st and 2nd in Jackie’s 5yo PTP list priced up. I won’t name them here as I know a couple of FJs have also highlighted them and I don’t want to alert too many.

i picked a few out of Saxon’s recently updated Mullins/Elliott Cheltenham Stats thread (terrific stuff in there, particularly on strong race trends for next season). Also, his Punchestown review (ones he highlights in red are worth a 2nd look):

Mystical Power Arkle (12-1 available)
Impaire et Passe Turn (10-1)
Fact to File GC (4-1)
Il Etait Temps Ry (14-1)
Sixandahalf MNH (14-1); ‘Not sure I was impressed with any horse as much as this mare’. Note; she has also run on the flat this summer. She is with G Cromwell.

Maybe a bit to discuss, keep the suggestions coming.

[Saxon Warrior]

i picked a few out of Saxon’s recently updated Mullins/Elliott Cheltenham Stats thread (terrific stuff in there, particularly on strong race trends for next season). Also, his Punchestown review (ones he highlights in red are worth a 2nd look):

Mystical Power Arkle (12-1 available)
Impaire et Passe Turn (10-1)
Fact to File GC (4-1)
Il Etait Temps Ry (14-1)
Sixandahalf MNH (14-1); ‘Not sure I was impressed with any horse as much as this mare’. Note; she has also run on the flat this summer. She is with G Cromwell.

Maybe a bit to discuss, keep the suggestions coming.

With the proviso that Mystical Power (Arkle) is an excellent trend, but only if Willie/JP decide to send him novice chasing and not their initial thoughts to go Champion Hurdle instead

I wouldn’t put a penny on Mystical Power for anything a.t.m.

[HoldenTheReins]

With the proviso that Mystical Power (Arkle) is an excellent trend, but only if Willie/JP decide to send him novice chasing and no their initial thoughts to go Champion Hurdle instead

I wouldn’t put a penny on Mystical Power for anything a.t.m.

A Galileo over fences? Does that not offput anyone? Pretty sure they said CH is the aim but things could change.

[Eggs]

A Galileo over fences? Does that not offput anyone? Pretty sure they said CH is the aim but things could change.

…yep, I just highlighted him from the diary as he fits trends but he’s one we’d be likely to ignore for the Yankee.

Keep the thoughts coming.

[Eggs]

…..general view is throwing a few risky darts at this months wager. I’ll nominate Kopek des Bordes, highlighted by others in my post above and given a mention by Spectre in this thread.

The thoughts then turn to potential target. Run once, winning his 2m Fairyhouse bumper very impressively by 13L, easy to see why he’s getting a few mentions in the diary section. The firms take differing views on Supreme or Gallagher, PP shorter for Gall whereas Sky are a standout 33-1 Gall, 25-1 Sup.

I’ll suggest Gallagher, 25-1 widely available but see what others think.

[Saxon Warrior]

…..general view is throwing a few risky darts at this months wager. I’ll nominate Kopek des Bordes, highlighted by others in my post above and given a mention by Spectre in this thread.

The thoughts then turn to potential target. Run once, winning his 2m Fairyhouse bumper very impressively by 13L, easy to see why he’s getting a few mentions in the diary section. The firms take differing views on Supreme or Gallagher, PP shorter for Gall whereas Sky are a standout 33-1 Gall, 25-1 Sup.

I’ll suggest Gallagher, 25-1 widely available but see what others think.

I suppose if there isn't consensus on target, but is a desire to have the horse in the Yankee.....

Then as the prices for Gallagher and Supreme are close to parity 25/33s, then half stakes Yankee on each race - for those that arent convinced of race target.

The odds help to make that call.

He did rip that sales race to bits that Brighterdaysahead won the year before.

Loved the fact that even as a 4yo making his debut in April, that Willie still stuck him in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown.

Happy with that entry
Even happier he didn't take it up.

[Eggs]

I suppose if there isn't consensus on target, but is a desire to have the horse in the Yankee.....

Then as the prices for Gallagher and Supreme are close to parity 25/33s, then half stakes Yankee on each race - for those that arent convinced of race target.

The odds help to make that call.

He did rip that sales race to bits that Brighterdaysahead won the year before.

Loved the fact that even as a 4yo making his debut in April, that Willie still stuck him in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown.

Happy with that entry
Even happier he didn't take it up.

….good steer, especially if we don’t have a Supreme selection.

On the subject of impressive bumper winners, do you consider Sixandahalf’s performance to be superior to Maughreen’s? One is 14-1 MNH whilst the other is 3-1.

Bit of a theme if we go with the 2 most impressive bumper winners.

[JackieMoon33]

I've only included the odd comment on Kopek Des Bordes as I wanted to keep him fairly low key, but also he's a horse that I'm very undecided on where he may end up and we're not likely to get any sort of steer from the yard for a while now. As I mentioned recently, I'm probably leaning towards the Supreme at present but not with any great conviction. Exar Essay had word to that effect too. If I was backing him at present, I think I'd reluctantly included him for both races.

To add further weight behind KDB, Willie and Harold snapped up his half brother (by Tunis) at the recent Arkle store sale for 210k, which was the top lot.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/3420-general-chat?p=461827#post461827

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/members-only-cheltenham-antepost-diaries/463016-jackie-moon-horses-to-follow?p=463358#post463358

[JackieMoon33]

One last thing I'd add to balance things up, those Sales bumpers have limited entries so quite often the depth is lacking somewhat and you can get results that often flatter the winner. Given this years renewal was also run on heavy, it could have exaggerated KDBs ability. The second horse home was from Nigel Twiston Davies and had already failed to win after three attempts. We may have had Brighterdaysahead win the previous renewal but it's a pretty average roll call over the last ten years.

[Saxon Warrior]

One last thing I'd add to balance things up, those Sales bumpers have limited entries so quite often the depth is lacking somewhat and you can get results that often flatter the winner. Given this years renewal was also run on heavy, it could have exaggerated KDBs ability. The second horse home was from Nigel Twiston Davies and had already failed to win after three attempts. We may have had Brighterdaysahead win the previous renewal but it's a pretty average roll call over the last ten years.

Sales races can be hit and miss, thats probably expected, for predicting Graded winners

But excluding Kopek and Pats Pick who was injured long term after his win in the race, then the last 8 winners have gone on the next season to...

2 were Grade 1 winners the next season
1 was a Grade 2 winner
1 was a Listed winner
3 more were competitive in Grade 1 races
1 that Won a Maiden Hurdle

So all 8 winners that won the 4yo sales race and ran the next season included
4 Black Type race winners
3 others competitive in Grade 1s
1 MdnH winner

So I'd say the winners have been largely well above average.

I've no worries on the quality of the race in the last decade - for winners, at least.


The last decade winners were as follows

Nect seasons performances after the win

● Moon Racer - Won Champion Bumper Grade 1

● Castle Sforza - 4th Champion Bumper (on next start, a year later!)

● Forge Meadow - a Grade 2 Mares NovH win

● Red Jack - won MdnH, 5th Royal Bond Grade 1

● Pats Pick - injured and out for 601 days after

● Uhtred - Won Listed Bumper (then injured for a year)

● Dark Raven - 3rd DRF Grade 1 NovH, 6th Supreme, died in Aintree Grade 1 NovH

● Icare Desbois - Won a MdnH

● Brighterdaysahead- Won Grade 1NovH Aintree, 2nd Mares NovH at Cheltenham

● Kopek Des Bordes - TBC

[JackieMoon33]

It can hit and miss, but it's a 4yo Sales Bumper m, so thats probablt expected, for predicting Graded winners

But excluding Kopek and Pts Pick who was injured long term after his win in the rave, then the last 8 winners have gone on to have

2 Grade 1 winners the next season
1 Grade 2 winner
1 Listed winner
3 that were competitive in Grade 1 races
1 that Won a Maiden Hurdle

So I'd say the winners have been largely above average.

I've no worries on the quality of the rave in the last decade - for winners, at least.


The last decade winners were as follows

Nect seasons performances after the win

● Moon Racer - Won Champion Bumper Grade 1

● Castle Sforza - 4th Champion Bumper (on next start, a year later!)

● Forge Meadow - a Grade 2 Mares NovH win

● Red Jack - won MdnH, 5th Royal Bond Grade 1

● Pats Pick - injured and out for 601 days after

● Uhtred - Won Listed Bumper (then injured for a year)

● Dark Raven - 3rd DRF Grade 1 NovH, 6th Supreme, died in Aintree Grade 1 NovH

● Icare Desbois - Won a MdnH

● Brighterdaysahead- Won Grade 1NovH Aintree, 2nd Mares NovH at Cheltenham

● Kopek Des Bordes - TBC

There are no festival novice hurdle winners and only one placed horse in that list though. That should be the benchmark we're looking at in this context and only Brighterdaysahed is worthy of being mentioned.

[Saxon Warrior]

….good steer, especially if we don’t have a Supreme selection.

On the subject of impressive bumper winners, do you consider Sixandahalf’s performance to be superior to Maughreen’s? One is 14-1 MNH whilst the other is 3-1.

Bit of a theme if we go with the 2 most impressive bumper winners.

No I dont Eggs

Maughreen's Bumper win was really really good, was given a 121 RPR, and was the best Mares Bumper debut of the season.
She's a 5yo, recovered from injury, and I hope could be a special horse for Run4Home and his crew.

Sixandahalf's only a 4yo, and debuted about 10 weeks later, with an impressive staying on runner-up spot, to a now Black Type winner, who ran up a 4 win sequence in Bumpers. That horse (Familiar Dreams) had ran 6 Bumpers 2nd in three and won the one before she beat Sixandahalf, so it was a more than decent debut by SAAH.

Her Punchestown Bumper win was super impressive, and Im pleased to see Gavin getting on with her, now and 2 very good Flat races have followed in quick (too quick?) succession.

So although younger, shes become race hardened pretty fast with 4 runs in 12 weeks.

I cant play Maughreen at 7/2 for a Novice race in 9 months time, thats not how I would operate.

Maybe find something running on the Flat, that I could use to put together in a double with her, at some point (City of Troy or Thorpedo Anna at the Breeders Cup, maybe, gets you around 40/1 the double with Maughreen) - but for now, she looks wonderful, but Im not involved from an antepost perspective.

Sixandahalf I have backed, her price is 4x bigger, and of the rest of the Bumper mares outside of Maughreen, she is the one thats impressed me the most.

Shes probably a bit risky for one of these Yankee's, c/w most picks made so far, for example I would rather have Golden Ace (Mares Hurdle) in a Yankee than Sixandahalf (MNH).

Im more focused on Royal Ascot entries/decs at the moment, and all the big Flat antepost races that follow, to try and find decent priced winners, including ones, here and there, that maybe useful to double into Cheltenham horses.

[Saxon Warrior]

There are no festival novice hurdle winners and only one placed horse in that list though. That should be the benchmark we're looking at in this context and only Brighterdaysahed is worthy of being mentioned.

That particular Sales Bumper winner is a decent marker for black-type horses the following year, thats something I am happy with, its a positive, the winners go on well the next year.

I valued last years winner enough to be interested in backing them for a Festival race, and at the moment I feel the same about this years winner.
Thats a co-incidence that I have done that, rather than a method of following that particular race though.

Festival winners debut all over the place, and I wouldnt write-off their chances based on where they debuted on the Flat, in a P2P, a Bumper or directly into a Novice Hurdle.

If I liked their debut enough to be interested antepost, it wouldnt matter where it was

[JackieMoon33]

That particular Sales Bumper winner is a decent marker for black-type horses the following year, thats something I am happy with, its a positive, the winners go on well the next year.

I valued last years winner enough to be interested in backing them for a Festival race, and at the moment I feel the same about this years winner.
Thats a co-incidence that I have done that, rather than a method of following that particular race though.

Festival winners debut all over the place, and I wouldnt write-off their chances based on where they debuted on the Flat, in a P2P, a Bumper or directly into a Novice Hurdle.

If I liked their debut enough to be interested antepost, it wouldnt matter where it was

Of course, that goes without saying and is not being disputed. My point is that sales bumper should not be considered a 'trend race' as the previous winners do not end up being festival winning novice hurdlers in the main. This year I'm hoping for the exception of course.

[Eggs]

….any views on Il Etait Temps for Ryanair available at 14-1? Case put up in the diary section after he beat Gaelic over 2m at Punchestown.

GW had beaten him in the Arkle but then IET had Ginnys Destiny and Grey Dawning a long way behind when stepped up in distance at Aintree. I like him and think he represents a bit of value.

MoM still hasn’t popped in, hoping all is ok on that front and he can put up selections at the end of the month. I’m currently drinking plenty of rum in sun soaked Cyprus, we might need a ‘captain’ on stand-by.