2024 Stayers Hurdle

[Odin]

For me I base it on how closely it resembles previous form, so if they have proven to be a fairly reliable guide in the past. Lord Snootie had RPRs of 122, 125 and 121 at the end of last season then a 114 to start this year, but would probably have been another low 120 but for making a bad mistake. He has gone up in weight slightly but beaten 8 lengths in a grade 3 handicap, I don't think it is unreasonable to think he has once again ran to something in the mid to low 120s. Santos Blue would be rated partly through Crambo as they have correlative form. Ignoring the jockey claim, SB was getting 4lb from Crambo yet was beat 2 1/4 lengths. with a further 6lb swing he is now beat 6 lengths. Either Crambo has improved enormously on his run, Santos Blue has got decidedly worse or it's a combination of the two. That is where we can use other horses to help guide.

I tend to ignore those beaten a long way as they are less likely to have run their race. Chances are they have been eased down or something has gone wrong for them to be beaten so far. 8 lengths in a three mile race isn't that far really. I would consider all those down to 9th here, beaten 11 3/4 for having run their race just with excuses as to why they haven't performed to their best.

Yep thanks - I get where you're coming from completely. I still worry about distance beat and eased down/not being in the race issues (schalke being one we potentially disagree on within your analysis). However, on the assumption that horses are consistent race to race, I can't really argue with the systematic logic you've used to get to the final position you have. Thanks for sharing; something for me to mull over...

[Lobos]

All six in Long Distance Hurdle have taken up their entries

[AaronLad]

Early entries for the long walk are interesting

[opatcho]

Early entries for the long walk are interesting

Goshen!!!!!! ;-)

[EnvoiAlien]

Goshen!!!!

[Kevloaf]

Dashel Drasher is 66/1 for the Stayers

Obviously 2nd last year


Career runs over obstacles

3341111/2U1/3111/312P/122226-3

25 runs

21 of those 25 races he's been in the first 3. Winning 10 of them.
Cheltenham 4 times, finishing 1222 (thanks @Lobos)


That is not bad at all is it
Wildly over priced anyway? Might get beaten by Marie's Rock this weekend, but if he doesn't (and he's 2nd fav for that race).... meh.
The horse he was ahead of in the Stayers, Teahupoo, is the 6/1 current 2nd fav



Not sexy and won't get much love, but I'm going to back him each way at 66/1
and if they push him to 80/1 or even 100/1 after a defeat, I'll definitely be backing him again for the Stayers

[Lobos]

Have you checked out his career record at Cheltenham as well Kev? Absolutely tops !

[opatcho]

An eye opener from Kev there

i totally ignored this one, and wrongly so when you consider his price

[Lobos]

He's weighted to win tomorrow's race as well and has had a run. Everything in his favour.

[EnvoiAlien]

Whats Dashels record when racing at trips in excess of 2m6f ?

[Lobos]

Whats Dashels record when racing at trips in excess of 2m6f ?

2222263.......

[TigerRolllllll]

Dashel Drasher is 66/1 for the Stayers

Obviously 2nd last year


Career runs over obstacles

3341111/2U1/3111/312P/122226-3

25 runs

21 of those 25 races he's been in the first 3. Winning 10 of them.
Cheltenham 4 times, finishing 1222 (thanks @Lobos)


That is not bad at all is it
Wildly over priced anyway? Might get beaten by Marie's Rock this weekend, but if he doesn't (and he's 2nd fav for that race).... meh.
The horse he was ahead of in the Stayers, Teahupoo, is the 6/1 current 2nd fav



Not sexy and won't get much love, but I'm going to back him each way at 66/1
and if they push him to 80/1 or even 100/1 after a defeat, I'll definitely be backing him again for the Stayers

Great shout……guess only concern is win part of bet ….and whether just to do Place bet on day as prob still be long

He is one I’ll look at once NRNB…..but I prefer not to do ew til then

[Lobos]

I'm hoping Marie's Rock will win today. She should hopefully stay the distance around a flat pan track like Newbury and on decent ground. Don't want her to be outstayed and reverted to the Mares Hurdle as she'd be more of a danger in that race to my two ladies !

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm hoping Marie's Rock will win today. She should hopefully stay the distance around a flat pan track like Newbury and on decent ground. Don't want her to be outstayed and reverted to the Mares Hurdle as she'd be more of a danger in that race to my two ladies !

I'd not considered that

Now I hope she loses as I'd much prefer her at 2m4f round Cheltenham

Don't think she's a strong enough stayer to be winning a stayers, she's a little bit too keen a traveller and when do they ever get up the hill in a stayers

[TigerRolllllll]

I'm hoping Marie's Rock will win today. She should hopefully stay the distance around a flat pan track like Newbury and on decent ground. Don't want her to be outstayed and reverted to the Mares Hurdle as she'd be more of a danger in that race to my two ladies !

Why not cover her in Mares ? Could even do a cheeky double on today

Over 30s on exchange ….was much more few weeks ago …and 25s with cashout bookies

Agree totally re danger …..she would be best horse on paper in this years race….,No Honeysuckle this year

Not convinced she stays Chelt 3m