2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Odin]

It's not quite as bad as you mention by my numbers but it's still a fairly accurate statistic.

I have 2 winners from 88 runners, 16 placed for favourites last time out. Including joint-favourites and co-favourites makes it 3-95, 18 placed.

If you narrow it down to those horses who were still Mullins' number 1 at the festival, the number is 3-46, 11 places. Take out handicaps it's 3-31, 7 places. Hurdles only are 2-14, 3 places. Winners were penhill (2018 stayers), black Hercules (2016 jlt), quevega (2010 mares).

Novice hurdles are 0-7, no places. Colreevy, fabulous saga, sous Les cieux, zaidpour, quel esprit, cousin Vinny, uncle junior. Only one of these (cousin Vinny) went off favourite.

For what it's worth, my summary of the above is that I'm not too worried given the specific profile I think Vega will have. Strong favourite and willies number 1 with a clear excuse in my eyes last time in a novice hurdle. Only one novice hurdler went off favourite next time so it's too small a sample size to take note of.

I have favourites, joint and co next time out as 2-9, 3 places (remember this includes the 2 winners). Novices are 1-3, 2 places. Black Hercules, champagne fevers arkle, cousin Vinny 5/20 in supreme 2009. These numbers also don't worry me.

Happy for anyone to interpret the numbers as they wish, and to say I've gone too in depth and fished for the right figures. I wouldn't be worried at 3-31 non handicaps though in all honesty. I'd be surprised given vibes if facile doesn't turn out to be a top 10% of Willie's horse.

[Carnage at Taunton]

To me it’s really simple…….does the performances this season warrant the odds? Had he repeated his previous run at DRF then yes fair enough, but for whatever reason he did’nt.
So has to be taken on imo.

[Benjy23]

To me it’s really simple…….does the performances this season warrant the odds? Had he repeated his previous run at DRF then yes fair enough, but for whatever reason he did’nt.
So has to be taken on imo.

If he'd repeated he'd previous run at the DRF he'd be 1/2 like, not 2/1 or whatever he currently is.

He was about evens before that run I think..

[DenmanSacre]

For what it's worth, my summary of the above is that I'm not too worried given the specific profile I think Vega will have. Strong favourite and willies number 1 with a clear excuse in my eyes last time in a novice hurdle. Only one novice hurdler went off favourite next time so it's too small a sample size to take note of.

I have favourites, joint and co next time out as 2-9, 3 places (remember this includes the 2 winners). Novices are 1-3, 2 places. Black Hercules, champagne fevers arkle, cousin Vinny 5/20 in supreme 2009. These numbers also don't worry me.

Happy for anyone to interpret the numbers as they wish, and to say I've gone too in depth and fished for the right figures. I wouldn't be worried at 3-31 non handicaps though in all honesty. I'd be surprised given vibes if facile doesn't turn out to be a top 10% of Willie's horse.

I wouldn't be worried by the stat either if anyone likes FV - just saw it and thought it was interesting (if true).

[Carnage at Taunton]

If he'd repeated he'd previous run at the DRF he'd be 1/2 like, not 2/1 or whatever he currently is.

He was about evens before that run I think..

Yeah he would probably be odds on, but that don’t make his current price correct because he did’nt repeat it.
Point I’m making is he should be bigger imo, so his price merits looking at others.

[opatcho]

If GDC, or Mighty Potter, or El Fab did a "Facile Vega" at the DRF... would you still back it 2/1 for the fez?

Why is Il Etait Temps 13/2 given his victor and proximity to FV on their previous start
Impaire unlikley to run here, same with G-Warrior, they are 3rd and 5th in the betting

FV will go off very short on the day, wished I had backed him after the DRF and the layed off my stake. Missed that boat.
I dont have much of a say for this race now. Its very difficult, but I cant back FV at her current price. I'd rather leave this race or throw my ?2 bet on a outsider.

[Odin]

If GDC, or Mighty Potter, or El Fab did a "Facile Vega" at the DRF... would you still back it 2/1 for the fez?

Why is Il Etait Temps 13/2 given his victor and proximity to FV on their previous start
Impaire unlikley to run here, same with G-Warrior, they are 3rd and 5th in the betting

FV will go off very short on the day, wished I had backed him after the DRF and the layed off my stake. Missed that boat.
I dont have much of a say for this race now. Its very difficult, but I cant back FV at her current price. I'd rather leave this race or throw my ?2 bet on a outsider.

In terms of IET, I'm just reading the room. If he was better than FV at home, he would be shorter. It's as simple as that. I think your no/limited bet scenario is very fair, but I think your comparison to other horses is slightly flawed:

GDC is always going to have stamina doubts for some people. If he'd bombed at DRF, I'd be one of them just because it was his first chase over 3m. This isn't the case for FV who's won over 2m on multiple occasions. Don't think it's fair to make a comparison.

El Fab was stepping up from a beginners chase to a Graded chase - if he doesn't win the Graded chase you obviously can't back him at the price. Don't think it's fair to make a comparison.

Mighty Potter a better example I'd say, but there's still doubts about him at Cheltenham and if he'd lost to Gaillard over 2.5m I'd know it wasn't his true running as he beat him in the Drinmore. Would I back him at 2/1 in that scenario given the looming shadows of AI and possibly SG? No because he hasn't previously beat either. Fair comparison, but different circumstances involved.

The best example I can think of is Constitution Hill. He hosed up in the Fighting Fifth, beating Epatante. If he'd done an FV at Xmas and Epatante had beat him, would you still back him at around evens? I'd say I'd be close to doing so and if I was, I should be backing FV at 2/1 (I've allowed leeway for bumper/novice form not being as strong as novice/open form). I've evaluated both horses similarly because up until that hypothetical race, they'd have carried all before them as unbeaten horses in multiple Grade 1s.

[SeanRock]

Think I’ve landed on Strong Leader as my e/w outsider in this, have Vega in a good few multiples at bad & good prices after the DRF but won’t be backing in a single. Do we think better than 33/1 will be available re: Strong Leader after dec’s? Hopefully get 4 or 5 places anyway.

[charlie]

Now GW and IEP are Ballymore bound, money will almost certainly come for Il Etait Temps wont it?

I think he's a mustard EW bet at 6/1 and the market is on the cusp of figuring that out.

Can someone make the case for Marine Nationale without mentioning the bullishness of the trainer please?

I can't for the life of me see why he is half the price of IET - half the price!

He's less experienced, he's had a long lay off, he's never been to Cheltenham, he has worse form, he didn't jump that well LTO and the rain thats falling wont help him.

What have I missed? (other than the fancy prices, kudos to you folk because if he were a bigger price I'd take a chance, but 7/2 is proper bin territory)

[Frankely My Dear]

Is it possible he's a bookie's red herring, draw some money in to cover losses incurred via the actual winner? I'm struggling to see the case for him too.

Although someone on the news this evening had 'Marine Nationale' on his jacket...

[Lobos]

Unbeaten, could be plenty more improvement, not ground dependant, will appreciate a fast run race, travels well and can quicken off a fast pace, trainer very astute, always aimed at this race, Grade1 winner, 3rd and 4th in that race both won since in top class Graded races.

Maybe I should back him

[Frankely My Dear]

Just can't do it at those odds. Have 0.2pts on at 25-1 win which is effectively a cover. IET is the value for me

[charlie]

Unbeaten, could be plenty more improvement, not ground dependant, will appreciate a fast run race, travels well and can quicken off a fast pace, trainer very astute, always aimed at this race, Grade1 winner, 3rd and 4th in that race both won since in top class Graded races.

Maybe I should back him

Each of those points is so easy to oppose.

Unbeaten means nothing if the company you're keeping is average.
7/2 for 'could be' plenty of improvement - at that price I want far more certainty/evidence.
He would prefer better ground. Picking up Irish Point on soft LTO left him visibly knackered and legless (thats why he hasn't run again)
He travelled OK in the RB but his jumping was not fluent and he's picked up......... Irish Point (not even good enough to travel)
Would an astute trainer tell everyone they're going to win the two most competitive novice hurdles of the week?
That Grade 1 was piss weak. We also know Royal Bond winners have a poor record in the Supreme.
AD ran to an RPR of 136 against in a mares race vs two horses who didn't want a penalty. IET beat AD far more easily.
Champ Kiely 'boosted' the form - he settled over a longer trip and beat 7 horses, 6 of which are deemed not good enough to go to Cheltenham.

7/2 is atrocious IMO. Wish I'd taken 20/1+ like some of you snaffled tho, thats fair and you've got the value

[opatcho]

I think its useful (or at least interesting) to go through old threads, seeing what folks on here thought after a performance
So I went back to boxing day, when Facile Vega won his last race, just to see what people thought about it

Its too damn early for my brain to process this, so I'm going to leave this here for now and see if it triggers further conversation / follow up or thoughts

We might have a race in the Supreme. I think FVs hurdling was better this race than last time but he didn't pull away like I thought he would. Ashroe Diamond finished well after not really being in it.

Have to say, Facile’s jump at the last was very poor - and he came off the bridle. Will be interesting to see his RPR and times - not sure they’ll be that good…

Meh - he's obviously good, but the hype is way too much. Soft lead and he's not really come away from them at the end.

We might aswell be critical when we can, Facile was novicey (which he is allowed to be, as he is) is he the best novice Hurdler we have seen, probably? But FV needs to keep improving in my eyes if going to live up to its rep. Listen I'm not knocking him and being over critical, he has won, just think if something was in that race half decent he might not have, then if there was different opposition you could argue it would be a different ran race!

Point being I wouldn't be going back in at evens!

They've likely ruined Il Etait Temps mark for the County though.

thoughts on Il Etait Temps being a county horse at the time

FV a lively contender for the Supreme... but I think, like most, the performance wasnt quite there today when you weighing up against his price for March

... this was me :-)

Every right to be, he's priced like he's run to around 150 already, what we've seen to date both sides of the water to date the 2m novice hurdle rank is easily the weakest looking at this point in time which is obvs factored in to him being short but yeah it's awfully short off the back of his two hurdle spins.

When asked to give him a mark out of ten Mullins said:- “I'd nearly have to give him 11 ?, I think.

“Plan A obviously went out the window after the first hurdle. Thankfully Il Etait Temps didn't bring him down, Paul said he was very close to it because he absolutely winged the hurdle.

“Then he had no lead and had to go and make his own running. He did it well, he got very free at the first hurdle down the back and took some jump at it. I was delighted to see that but I knew he couldn't keep that up.

“Paul got him back, got him into a slower rhythm and got him jumping better. He said he was still racing in his hands the whole way but he eventually settled for him.

“I think he'll learn an awful lot today. The big crowd and all the buzz before the race itself, all that will be a help for him in the future.”

When asked if he would be better with a lead he added:- “It doesn't really matter, he can lead now and we're not too worried.”

When asked if he would stick to two miles he said:- “I wouldn't be looking for anything else.”


ALL ROADS TO THE SUPREME!

Anyone else feeling that Mullins is being hugely positive about his this year? Am surprised he is bigging them up so much, particularly FV. That was a good performance but it wasn’t 11/10.

Agree it's not all over yet. If Luccia or Jet Powered come out and blow them away next time then we could have a race on. He'll improve again though as today would have done him the world of good.

I think the Supreme is far more interesting after today. FV is clearly a very good horse, but 11/10 this side of 2023 must equal a monster and IMO he's no monster. Don't get me wrong, he went about his business well today and did a lot right, but his jumping wasn't super slick and he didn't finish his race as strongly as I would have liked for a horse who is that short. I'm splitting hairs but we have to when they are that short. Willie confirming they'll stick to the minimum trip is a lovely post race comment as it means we can steam into the ballymore. Will be interesting to see what rating he's given.

He's had two races now where he's just looked 'Good'.... yesterday and at Punchestown when he had to fight off Redemption Day. That may well be good enough to win the Supreme but I don't think as many now will be looking to avoid him. He could easily blow us away again at the DRF though as that'll hopefully be a stronger race/pace.

Nothing in the 2m division has run above 145 yet, the other divisions they have(my ratings and other racing ratings) that's why it's the weakest to date this season. Since when does trainer comments validate a price . A fez bumper winner by Mullins is always going be under priced and that's exactly what he is to date.

[Benjy23]

That Mullins quote is interesting because arguably the opposite happened. I know he blamed Townend for that.

I get EIT as an each way bet as he's likely to run his race but I don't actually see him winning tbh. Sensible cover bet mind.