2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[gwaaan]

This whole Facile Vega plunge seems sus to me. Bookies know it’s beat but want everyone backing it

[seathestars27]

This whole Facile Vega plunge seems sus to me. Bookies know it’s beat but want everyone backing it

thats not how bookies work

[Odin]

Fair DenmanSacre

I just can't see how IET could go off at the SPs he did if he's a better horse than FV.

Anyway, I'm also not on the big RABs so if anyone is wavering off FV and they fancy a "cashout" for their stake back, I would be interested in buying the bet off you

PS - yes, I did just deliberately offer only your money back for a horse that's already won half of the bet, cashout of the century surely?!

[Run4Home]

We were there Thursday & chatting Friday evening - will just summarise some bits hopefully might help a few..

They really can't see FV beat, talking about IET v FV 'he'd be a few lengths ahead of IET' it was a simple as he should just get back to winning here.
Paul will ride him & descirbed him as 'electric' in work Friday away, Patrick sat on him Wednesday at home for the first time this year and felt the same about him.
The form at Christams they just believe to be the best piece of form on offer and hes the best horse.

FV and IEP they think are the best of their novices hence splitting those 2, IEP would only go Supreme if something happened FV.

In regards to DRF I would personally totally ignore it - he came back into the parade ring with 2 issues one to the leg and one to the head. He then had a light week/week off because he was lame out of the race, he got injured in the race which I why I wouldn't read too much into DRF.

As I say just their feeling, everyone will have their own opinions on opposition, price etc. but its not often they are so bullish.

[HesTheOne]

FV and IEP they think are the best of their novices hence splitting those 2, IEP would only go Supreme if something happened FV.

Interesting, may well be worth the related double cover of IEP Supreme NRNB and maybe GW cover in the Ballymore.

[Coneygme]

FV & IEP double pays 14/1. That has to be tempting...

[Carnage at Taunton]

For me it’s all about watching the horse in races and then looking at price and opposition.
In the case of FV and IET it’s a bit tricky cos both races they both ran in this season had completely different results.
So whilst I would rather make my mind up relying on my judgement watching, I can see in this case why people are judging on comments from connections.
Still can’t have 2/1 myself but will keep a keen eye on his price, and potential doubles or trebles maybe.

[charlie]

It's a fantastic betting race if you have a strong opinion isn't it

FV is a proper bin job for me. I simply don't buy the excuses LTO and wouldn't back him with counterfeit at his current price. MN is easy to look past IMO. Bullish trainer, ordinary form, not a particularly good jumper and never been to Cheltenham. Feels far more supposition than substance, but it would be nice to see a smaller trainer do well in race. IEP, Luccia and GW aren't going to go, so we can ignore them. Tahmuras jumps like a snooker table - I couldn't have him on my mind, despite the recent form boost. High Definition is in the book but it's hard to have faith in a horse that keeps making mistakes - could you trust his jumping? You're then into pray and spray territory.

Feels like a similar Supreme to one KD won in 2019 - wide open. I can't remember if it was Scooby or Kev or both but someone made a long and sustained case for KD and he won at 6/1 in a wide open renewal. I was livid with myself for not having backed him at that price and remember thinking 'why on earth haven't I backed the Mullins G1 winner at the DRF for the Supreme' - it was so obvious. This year feels like a similar sort of year and the obvious horse is Il Etait Temps. The race will be run at a fierce tempo and whilst FV was falling out the back of the telly at the DRF, IET was sprinting clear of two horses who were previously unbeaten. I thought it was good at the time but it was actually a super impressive performance IMO. Not only has he shown a really good turn of foot of a race run at a strong pace, but he's hit the line hard. I think 6/1 for him is KD 2.0 all over again.

[Can't Catch Me]

I would agree with all of that, in theory, charlie. But I'm finding it very hard to get past the fact all the noises from the Mullins camp suggest they are absolutely convinced FV is the better horse.

[Quevega]

I would agree with all of that, in theory, charlie. But I'm finding it very hard to get past the fact all the noises from the Mullins camp suggest they are absolutely convinced FV is the better horse.

Are the noises always right though ?

[Can't Catch Me]

Are the noises always right though ?

No, obviously not. But Willie Mullins knows a damn sight more than I do! And if he thinks FV is better than IET, who am I to argue. I'm only saying this from the point of view that whenever I go to have a cover bet on IET, I don't pull the trigger for this reason. Its not hard to imagine the Christmas run was more like true form for each horse.

[Quevega]

No, obviously not. But Willie Mullins knows a damn sight more than I do! And if he thinks FV is better than IET, who am I to argue. I'm only saying this from the point of view that whenever I go to have a cover bet on IET, I don't pull the trigger for this reason. Its not hard to imagine the Christmas run was more like true form for each horse.

I agree, it's a tough call.
I've sided with what I've seen, based on prices, but know full well, this often turns out wrong.
And I tend to go with the perceived value of course, if the prices were the other way around I'd likely back Vega.

[doctorwu]

Triumph hurdle runners coming back the next year to win a Supreme.....

[robith]

It's a fantastic betting race if you have a strong opinion isn't it

FV is a proper bin job for me. I simply don't buy the excuses LTO and wouldn't back him with counterfeit at his current price. MN is easy to look past IMO. Bullish trainer, ordinary form, not a particularly good jumper and never been to Cheltenham. Feels far more supposition than substance, but it would be nice to see a smaller trainer do well in race. IEP, Luccia and GW aren't going to go, so we can ignore them. Tahmuras jumps like a snooker table - I couldn't have him on my mind, despite the recent form boost. High Definition is in the book but it's hard to have faith in a horse that keeps making mistakes - could you trust his jumping? You're then into pray and spray territory.

Feels like a similar Supreme to one KD won in 2019 - wide open. I can't remember if it was Scooby or Kev or both but someone made a long and sustained case for KD and he won at 6/1 in a wide open renewal. I was livid with myself for not having backed him at that price and remember thinking 'why on earth haven't I backed the Mullins G1 winner at the DRF for the Supreme' - it was so obvious. This year feels like a similar sort of year and the obvious horse is Il Etait Temps. The race will be run at a fierce tempo and whilst FV was falling out the back of the telly at the DRF, IET was sprinting clear of two horses who were previously unbeaten. I thought it was good at the time but it was actually a super impressive performance IMO. Not only has he shown a really good turn of foot of a race run at a strong pace, but he's hit the line hard. I think 6/1 for him is KD 2.0 all over again.

In hindsight, it's absolutely hilarious that a Mullins/Ruby Supreme horse who won at the DRF went off 6s isn't it

[Can't Catch Me]

I agree, it's a tough call.
I've sided with what I've seen, based on prices, but know full well, this often turns out wrong.
And I tend to go with the perceived value of course, if the prices were the other way around I'd likely back Vega.

I think its simply a question of can they get FV back to his best in time. If they can, he beats IET. As you say that then becomes a question of value... I thought 3/1 was fair enough but he's getting too short now.

Might be an odd thing to say, but if you switch the two runs around. And FV had bombed out at Xmas, then beat IET as easily as he did, but at the DRF, what price would FV be now? Almost certainly odds on. So he's definitely still value based on respective ability. Looking back, he perhaps didn't get the credit he deserved for beating IET and AD so easily at Christmas.