2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Odin]

But I don’t think 2/1 is a fair price to find out.

I'm surprised so many people have this opinion.

You can always forgive a horse one run, whether that be due to the highly questionable excuse of they went too fast, or the more likely excuse that the horse suffered an overreach (which fits better with him coming back lame). It was pretty clear when he had no chance that townend basically pulled him up as well so being beaten out of sight doesn't bother me either.

Before that he's essentially been flawless and the starting prices of IET compared to him as well as the jockey bookings showed who the stable thought was best. The vibes have always been the same that he's a superstar and the continued support at the expense of the horse that beat him at DRF says a hell of a lot for me.

I piled into the 7/2 that was available (only in multiples obviously because I'm an idiot) and I'm a lot more confident now with the continued support than I would have been had he stayed 4/1. I'm gonna say something potentially outrageous but it really wouldn't surprise me at all if the 2/1 available now looks as good as the 2/1 about constitution for the champion hurdle last summer seems now when we look back over both races in hindsight. Yes, I know that's a ballsy statement but we will know either way in just over a week...

[Exar Essay]

Odin

It’s a price thing for me. I was perfectly happy adding him to the book at 5/1 down to 4/1 and did so. But 2/1 … for me that doesn’t reflect the risk, the risk being the concerns I set out previously. I can absolutely forgive him the run, but the price still has to reflect that run. He didn’t get touched off by IET he was beaten all ends up. Even if you factor in the easing down, he’d not have been within 10 lengths of the winner.

IET ran to 158 RPR that day too. That’s some serious form FV is up against.

Out of interest, what price do you think is fair?

P.S This isn’t pocket talk. If FV wins I’m almost guaranteed a profitable week. I’ll be cheering him home louder than any.

[Odin]

Exar Essay

If FV did suffer an over reach as reported he shouldn't have got within 10 lengths of IET last time, which is my main argument as to why that race doesn't matter (and therefore the price doesn't need to reflect it).

Similarly, if working off RPRs, FV received a 154RPR at Xmas so it's very easy to see how he could easily beat the 158RPR given to IET with normal second to third or third to fourth run progression (depending on whether you count his last run). IET will be having his 7th run so maybe doesn't have quite so much improvement in that regard although I fully accept that his pulling like a train has held him back so far so he may not be the typical 7th run horse.

In terms of price, in truth I don't know. Like you, I was happy to back at 4/1 and am still trying to get him in roll ups (unsuccessfully!) At 2/1. I think he could easily go off odds on, somewhere between 4/5 and 4/6 so arguably anything better than that is "value" but if he's anything less than 6/4 I just won't have another bet on the race as there's no reason for me to get further involved. I can't objectively say whether I'd back him on the day at 6/4 if I wasn't already involved but suspect I would.

[Quevega]

Exar Essay

If FV did suffer an over reach as reported he shouldn't have got within 10 lengths of IET last time, which is my main argument as to why that race doesn't matter (and therefore the price doesn't need to reflect it).

Similarly, if working off RPRs, FV received a 154RPR at Xmas so it's very easy to see how he could easily beat the 158RPR given to IET with normal second to third or third to fourth run progression (depending on whether you count his last run). IET will be having his 7th run so maybe doesn't have quite so much improvement in that regard although I fully accept that his pulling like a train has held him back so far so he may not be the typical 7th run horse.

In terms of price, in truth I don't know. Like you, I was happy to back at 4/1 and am still trying to get him in roll ups (unsuccessfully!) At 2/1. I think he could easily go off odds on, somewhere between 4/5 and 4/6 so arguably anything better than that is "value" but if he's anything less than 6/4 I just won't have another bet on the race as there's no reason for me to get further involved. I can't objectively say whether I'd back him on the day at 6/4 if I wasn't already involved but suspect I would.

I'd be amazed if he went off odds on, unless 2 or 3 directly in behind him pull out.

Much more likely to be available at bigger again IMO.
The bookies will be quietly confident of getting him beat so will likely offer him up at some point.

From a price perspective..
He's a difficult one to talk into odds on favouritism and much easier to talk him the other way.

The people (vast majority) that back after declarations will be split between his bumper memory and the last run.

[Odin]

Quevega

I'll happily bow down to yours/anyone else's knowledge regarding how the betting markets will turn out on the day as I'm not particularly savvy in that regard. I guess my fundamental point on reflection is that - perhaps stupidly, perhaps with the foresight of an oracle - I perceive him to have an odds on chance in this race so the current odds are still generous enough for me when all of (my) factors are considered

[Quevega]

Quevega

I'll happily bow down to yours/anyone else's knowledge regarding how the betting markets will turn out on the day as I'm not particularly savvy in that regard. I guess my fundamental point on reflection is that - perhaps stupidly, perhaps with the foresight of an oracle - I perceive him to have an odds on chance in this race so the current odds are still generous enough for me when all of (my) factors are considered

Fair enough.

The NRNB markets at this stage are settled, with very few likely "running" into the equation.

On average, They are defensively priced as though there will/may be absentees/defections. That's the difficulty when opting to bet now or not.
I'd say they are certainly compressed to the point where most horses will be available at bigger after declarations if none of the market principles drop out. And the line ups are as expected.

It varies from race to race but it's toss up if you get the value or not, but at this stage you are either relying on luck and a key rival missing the race and/or in some cases a key tipster may help your price hold up or vice versa, and in some races/specific horses etc the ground will affect this also.

Lots of factors really and a lot of thought required.

But in general my memory of on the day/after decs prices is that they tend to be surprisingly bigger in the races where the declarations contain few surprises.
We're kind of in calm waters right now.

My thoughts only, of course.
The best way to evaluate prices though is on an individual/position basis like you've expressed above, as long as it's mostly sensible thinking.

edit - And never bow down to no one, especially a faceless nob head typing in a forum.
in the flesh, maybe, if they have a gun or other sort of weapon.

[Rooster Booster]

Who the fudge is still left that hasnt taken the zillion opportunities to back him at bigger than 2-1. If people are backing him simply because he is shortening then bookies have won the argument and we aren’t even putting up a fight. Sometimes if the odds are stacked against you it’s best to just walk away. If they want you to turn round and come back they will encourage you to do so ...why make it easy for them?

[Istabraq]

Who the fudge is still left that hasnt taken the zillion opportunities to back him at bigger than 2-1.

Errrr me Sir....

[Rooster Booster]

Errrr me Sir....

Oops sorry. I hope he gets bigger at some point for you. Like Q I suspect he will .

[Istabraq]

Oops sorry. I hope he gets bigger at some point for you. Like Q I suspect he will .

Haha, don't worry, I'm more than used to missing the boat.
I've just had the Facile Vega/Honeysuckle win double which pays a tad over 10/1...

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Haha, don't worry, I'm more than used to missing the boat.
I've just had the Facile Vega/Honeysuckle win double which pays a tad over 10/1...

Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle?

[Rooster Booster]

Haha, don't worry, I'm more than used to missing the boat.
I've just had the Facile Vega/Honeysuckle win double which pays a tad over 10/1...

Gl with that…I know how you feel… I’ve not got a penny on honey yet. It almost feels like a betrayal. Don’t judge me

[Rooster Booster]

Haha, don't worry, I'm more than used to missing the boat.
I've just had the Facile Vega/Honeysuckle win double which pays a tad over 10/1...

Best of luck with that…I know how you feel… I’ve not got a penny on honey yet. It almost feels like a betrayal. Don’t judge me

[Istabraq]

Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle?

Sadly no, in the race she shouldn’t be in !

[DenmanSacre]

I decided I'll oppose FV at the start of the season and I'll continue to do so. Its the first race of the Festival and it pays to oppose the outright early favourite. Only 2 outright favourites won in the last 10 years - 2 joint favs have won in the last 10 years as well but Constitution Hill was unheard of at the start of the season and the other was Vautour in a decent Supreme.

Reason for opposing (adding to it throughout the season but mainly point 1, 3, 5 and 7 below and ignoring the favourite stat above) that I admit I had to read a few times the days after his DRF loss to not get sucked in:

1) Champion Bumper winning horses should be opposed in this - only Champagne Fever has done the double in the last 10 years. Appreciate It was 2nd in the bumper and 1st here but likely would have gone to the Ballymore if Ferny was fit (who would have made it 2 out of 10 so I don't mind if we actually say it's 2/10 - still a poor record compared to early season SPs).

2) Constitution Hill wary - kind of links to point 6. We knew as of the Tuesday of the 2021 Festival that Facile Vega was not the best of his age group. What was to say there wasn't another horse better than FV lurking. Again too short, too far away from the festival.
3) Change in handicap hurdle rules. I think this will be a massive change to the depth of the novice hurdles. In the last 3 years, the County has produced 3 novice winners who have won grade 1s following their Cheltenham win - State Man (novice and open grade 1s), Belfast Banter (Aintree grade 1) and Saint Roi (won a grade 1 novice chase). BB would have qualified for the County under the current rules bit the other 2, who are better, wouldn't have and would have been forced to go to the Supreme or miss the festival. Admittedly this probably hasn't changed the Supreme outlook this year but something I noted at the start of the year.

4) Last year's crop - kind of linked to 7. If Constitution Hill, State Man and Sir Gerhard lined up in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham, I'd price up FV as the outsider and so there must be some sort of value elsewhere in the Supreme to take him on with. He's not unbeatable.

5) Breeding and bumpers run suggest Ballymore was the correct route but he's gone for the Supreme.

6) Always too short. My rule antepost pre Christmas is that I won't take less than 8/1 on a horse no matter what before Xmas and is probably a reason I never really do the Arkle. I don't actually think I'd back any horse on the day at less than 9/4 for the Supreme after Constitution Hill going off that price. I'd rather skip the race as a betting heat on the day.

7) Wasn't given a race until the DRF. High Definition would have laughed at him and IET actually settled well, jumped well and pissed over him. He didn't go too fast - look at the sectionals. If you think he went too fast, look at last year's Supreme and have a premature cry before this year's Supreme. I'm not having the excuses after the race as well. Paul would have pulled him up when he was beaten and he didn't if something was actually wrong with him.

8) That Xmas win wasn't all that. Ashroe Diamond was beat 9 lengths but was 15 lengths back with 2 to go. She's took back 6 lengths with not that much urging. IET was kept back a few lengths after the first hurdle and if that was another yard, Danny would have taken on the lead throughout instead of conceding. Even 2 out he should have done it.

9) Last year's early bumper crop were a bag of proverbial manure (based on horses FV beat):

American Mike - done sweet FA, looks slow and won't be Elliott's best novice hurdler or chaser.

Redemption Day - injured so can't judge him. Based on the rest, likely to not be much and I'll oppose next year.

Sandor Clegane (2nd at DRF by 12 lengths) - was spanked by Three Card Brag over 2m. Slow and shite.

Carnfunnock (3rd at DRF) - can't even win a handicap hurdle off 116.

James's Gate - beat at Punchestown. Won't be up to much next year and will oppose.

Joyeux Machin - no comment. His form speaks for itself.

Rest of them were even worse.

This year's Champion Bumper crop will be better hurdlers than this lot when we look back in a years time IMO.


10) The on day offers for the Supreme - first race of the Festival and they'll take on the favourite. Shishkin drifted on the day. Constitution Hill didn't go off sole favourite. Altior didn't go off favourite etc. You'll also have some horses who pay just as well to place in the top 5 as FV does to win (revising this from my notes to say it doesn't look as certain that the bookies will offer great concessions on this race).

With IET proving above average, High Definition an interesting flat recruit who put FV in trouble at the DRF, Marine Nationale with a fair number of fans (I couldn't have him for this) and some decent horses at 16/1 plus, I do think opposing FV even each way could pay.

I'm prepared to admit I could end up with egg on my face, but with a very low % of my betting bank on this race (of which some is ready lost on Arctic Bresil and the remainder is on IET at the moment), I can afford to oppose FV and if I'm wrong, I have 27 races to claw it back.