2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[darlojim]

I’ve seen the sectionals, they went fast,I agree they went fast enough that could cost him running his best race, but fast enough to justify him finishing where he did and still be fave for the supreme? That’s a whole other matter, and imo the answer is no.

i feel the cut and lump stuff is largely nothing tbh, if you look over a lot of horses after a jumps race they would have a cut/bump/be a bit sore etc, there didn’t seem to be any indication that he was in any danger of being out for a period of time so it didn’t seem that serious, and if he’d won we’d have never heard about it. Jonbon had a noticeable gash on his leg for example after his last win, but he still won, and because of that nothing was said of it, but if calico had won you can be sure we’d still be hearing about that cut he got during the race.

I agree, but are we all not responsible for making him fav again for the Supreme? He was pushed out to 6/1 and many, including myself, thought that was way overpriced on reflection. He easily brushed aside IET at Christmas and I don't buy into all this 'danny weren't trying to win the race' nonsense, if this was the case then he would have been campaigned with the County in mind which he hasn't.

The fact that Willie thinks what he does of the horse, and how he regards him, speaks absolute volumes and sometimes you just need to listen to the people who know the horse best. Of course all of this means nothing in reality until the Supreme has ran, and then, we will know for sure if that was just a blip or whether he maybe is overhyped.

[riccirich]

I’m certainly not responsible for him being backed back down from 6/1, but I agree it’s mostly down to punters, which is partly what I don’t agree with, I don’t think the 6/1 was value personally, more just a fair price, and I think his current price is too low. If he had never ran at the drf I think his current price would be fair, but having ran and been well beat I think it’s poor. Imo i 100% don’t think Danny was trying to win at Xmas unless the race fell in his lap, like it did at the drf. The exact reason for that is debatable, possibly a future hcap in mind, possibly under instruction from willie not to give both horses such a hard race early in the season by getting into a battle, when the stable was going to have the 1-2-3 either way.

when it comes to what willie thinks, this might sound disrespectful to the man, but it’s not hugely important is it? I can understand putting stock in trainers opinions when it comes to horses who we haven’t seen much of and a bit of info that the horse works very well can be of good value, but at the end of the day no matter how much work willie has seen him do at home, the best evidence is what he actually does at the track isn’t it? And we can all see that before our own eyes. I do think that a huge part of why he’s as low as he is is down to willie talking him up, but looking through all the horses form, it’s just not that impressive up to now imo.

[darlojim]

I can imagine you would think 3/1 11/4 would be fair had he not run at the DRF, considering he was around the Evs marker.

I still think his bumper campaign is pretty hard to judge tbh, Redemption day and James' Gate are both OFTS so impossible to have a line through them, American Mike is just not the same horse for one reason or another this season, but when you look back to his DRF bumper win (and arguably most impressive) hes put 12L between him and Sandor Clegane who has since ran a nice race in the Nathaniel Lacy, 20L+ behind that are the likes of Carnfunnock, Itwhatunitesus, Embassy gardens and The Big Doyen.

[riccirich]

The evens was very poor on what he’d done imo, like I said I think it was all just down to the hype from mullins.

redemption day and jg could rescue that bumper form yet, but on what we’ve seen so far from mike, authorized speed, sea bank bistro etc you couldn’t exactly say it was a good renewal so far, looks average enough up to now. Sandor is giving a good account of himself so far alright, but I find it a bit hard to use him as a boost for facile since he looks like a 3 miler and is going for the Bartlett, future stayers can still excel in 2m bumpers of course, but it just didn’t look his game to me.

fwiw I think Il etait temps is the better bet, the 6/1 paddy offered yesterday was very good imo, no lingering question marks bar the odd iffy jump and he has the best form this season. Marine underpriced too imo, have him at nice prices but not Uber confident, didn’t like his jumping at all at the end of the bond but maybe just an all round better horse on better ground. The other one I like at the prices is diverge, there’s collateral form I think puts him ahead of hunters yarn who’s lower and might not be going, I also think he’s a better jumper than that one, and like the fact he’ll be ridden handily. Found a good chunk of improvement lto and being by frankel I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do on better ground.

[Mighty]

I’ve seen a fair few comments regarding Diverge being a player in the Supreme, but looking at the form of his first race - 20L behind High Definition, 15L behind Parmenion - I’m struggling to see it.

I know RPRs aren’t everything, but a 130 RPR puts him 18 behind Il Etait Temps when he beat Vega. What am I not seeing? Genuinely open to being persuaded, as he’s a backable price still.

[riccirich]

I’ve seen a fair few comments regarding Diverge being a player in the Supreme, but looking at the form of his first race - 20L behind High Definition, 15L behind Parmenion - I’m struggling to see it.

I know RPRs aren’t everything, but a 130 RPR puts him 18 behind Il Etait Temps when he beat Vega. What am I not seeing? Genuinely open to being persuaded, as he’s a backable price still.

I think it’s easy to forgive his debut, it was his first run for them and they were figuring out how to ride him, jockey tried to hold him up but he fought him the whole way and it looked like a learning experience.

second run they rid him more prominently and he jumped his way to the lead, and ended up winning very easily. A sign of the improvement he made was an Elliott horse who ran in both races, who diverge beat by 2l first time, and twenty something lengths on the bridle second time. The collateral form i mentioned with hunters yarn isn’t rock solid, but a horse called top hill low ran against diverge and hunters in different races and diverge beat him a good bit further. Diverge and hy were ridden pretty much the same way in both races, but to my eye diverge jumped better and I thought looked to have more in the tank as they crossed the finish line. My reason for comparing him with hunters yarn is that one went on to win again and will probably be rated high 140s in the uk, and since I think diverge is ahead of him I think he could possibly be a 150s horse, and is a better price.

So personally I would have diverge ahead of hunters yarn already and diverge is much less experienced, add in the fact he is by one of the best flat sires around in frankel, I think he could be better again on better ground. So with question marks over some at the head of the betting I think he’s well worth a go at nice odds.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Loving all this FV/IET chat,all very interesting and some of it might be on the mark of course, but come the Tuesday it will be….. why did we pooh pooh the Tolworth??!!!!

[Benjy23]

Bit of a pointless comment this because he's the best in the business here like but... If Diverge wasn't trained by Mullins you'd be looking at about 50/1 I reckon. Not sure there's anything to like about his price to be honest!

Generally you want some graded form to win the supreme. Ideally I'd want at least two wins. And even three runs over hurdles to be honest. He's a really poor profile and is 12/1!

I'm all up for thinking the Tolworth and British form is shite but at a similar price if someone forced me to back one I'd be going with Nichols runner. I'll stick with nether for now though

[Quevega]

I'm kind of where Ricci is with Facile Vega myself.
I trust Willie and have followed his horses for many years, but he is as prone to loving a horse as most of us on here.

And once you fall into the habit of talking a horse up to people, and they let you down a little, it's hard to get off the bandwagon. Some stay on it for years. (you know who you are !)
Not that you should jump off, after one defeat, or if you truly believe, but it's probably healthier to at least look at the situation and performance in the cold light of day and not try and soft soap yourself and your ego too much.
If you have to go up to people and admit the horse is not a machine then so be it, we all get it wrong sometimes.

I'd actually like to see Townend opt to ride Il Etait Temps, as that would be very brave of him and also smart IMO.
I wonder though if he rides and picks the ones he gets the vibes from Willie about.

I do expect he'll ride Facile Vega, as he'd be scared of getting beat by him.
He'd probably rather lose on him again with a more careful ride and be happy not to be on a winner, so he can breathe out a little on his ride in Dublin. When the horse is shown to not be as good as the yard expected.

Was just the one bad run though, so he's still a major player (should be 6-1).

Big respect to Paul T if he rocks up on IET though

[Lobos]

We know now that Vega was Lame for a week after his defeat. Is that alone not enough of an excuse for his poor performance?

[Dandrew99]

I’ve seen a fair few comments regarding Diverge being a player in the Supreme, but looking at the form of his first race - 20L behind High Definition, 15L behind Parmenion - I’m struggling to see it.

I know RPRs aren’t everything, but a 130 RPR puts him 18 behind Il Etait Temps when he beat Vega. What am I not seeing? Genuinely open to being persuaded, as he’s a backable price still.

As one of the people who put him up in the other thread... I guess I just couldn't confidently say anything at the top of the market so I thought I'd go for something at a bigger price that could be that bit special. He definitely fits that bill on the breeding and visually looked very good, but yeah I wouldn't be confident on him either. If you're not gunna be confident of a selection, may aswell be confident of a selection at a big price but essentially it's because I don't have a strong opinion on any horse, so I went for the fun selection...

If I had any confidence that Hunters Yarn was going for the Supreme then he would definitely have been my selection, I actually really like him.

[Morley Street]

I’ve seen a fair few comments regarding Diverge being a player in the Supreme, but looking at the form of his first race - 20L behind High Definition, 15L behind Parmenion - I’m struggling to see it.

I know RPRs aren’t everything, but a 130 RPR puts him 18 behind Il Etait Temps when he beat Vega. What am I not seeing? Genuinely open to being persuaded, as he’s a backable price still.

You couldn’t back him on his first run but as others have said there were explanations for that and his second vastly improved run stacks up against a couple of form lines. For me though the main appeal is that he is bred for a Derby trial rather than a Supreme and he looks like he’ll improve further for genuine spring ground. This year the way the ground and weather forecast is, I feel it will suit flat breds for speed. I still think there is plenty juice left in his price and could see him going off single figures… jockey bookings will be fascinating tho.

[Many Clouds]

I think with Diverge a lot has also got to do with how positive willie was about him in the quotes after his last run. Calling him the real deal etc I think that's what he said anyway. That's the main reason I covered him.

[Kevloaf]

I would love a Frankel to win the Supreme.

The Best There Is, The Best There Was, The Best There Ever Will Be

[Many Clouds]

Just wondering if anyone can explain something to me about the DRF race. Ive watched racing and loved it for well over a decade and love the festival, but it's only the last two years coming on here daily that iv learnt a lot more about the actual details within a race when watching it, and thanks to everyone here that I feel like I have increased my knowledge massively.

But I'm still nowhere near most of you guys are when it comes to the intricate details and I'm always open to learning. So please don't take this as me trying to be funny or anything like that, genuinely wanting to know about how the pace of the race effected Facile Vega so much. I must have watched the race 5 or 6 times, and I have just rewatched it again.

From what I can see, FV and LE go a few lengths clear for the first half they are between maybe 4-6 lengths infront of Il Etait Temps, when LE in seats IET is then around 8 lengths behind but partly due to a slow jump at that hurdle.

What I'm getting at is that it's not like FV has gone off 30 lengths infront of everything and then died a death and been realed in like you see in some races where a horse goes off like mad man and you know its gonna be cooked (like Jupiter Du Gite did last time out pulling like a train) so most of the rest of the horses in the race must be going a similar speed to maintain the similar distance they are behind FV from the start to the end of the race if you get me. So if FV has gone too fast throughout, how have the rest of them not when they are a similar distance behind him during most of the race?

Apologies if it's a bit of a daft question and I can move it to the stupid questions thread if so but if anyone can help me out understanding it that would be much appreciated