2023 Gold Cup

[Carnage at Taunton]

Shaping up to be a pretty good Gold Cup I reckon.
Solid fav, plenty of competition, with a fair few that can make a case for.
If either BMG, Conflated,NY,APT win I would not be surprised, and Stattler, MI and AS could run big races as well.
Cannot wait!!

[Quevega]

This years Gold Cup.

Quite possibly the best race (depth and potential wise) ever seen at the festival. ??

The only horse I can think of we are missing at the moment is Lomme Presse, and (shishkin)

The likely runners.

A Plus Tard - 180
Galopin Des Champs - 175
Bravemansgame - 172
Protektorat - 170
Conflated - 168

Minella Indo - 168
Noble Yeats - 167
Hewick - 167

Royal Pagaille - 163
Stattler - 163
Eldorado Allen - 162
Sounds Russian - 161
Ahoy Senor - 161
Capodanno - 160

Massively difficult race to call IMO.
It's easy to say the FAV is the best horse in the race and most likely winner, and I would agree. But he has a heck of a job on to beat these lot.

The horses he's faced and beaten in open company that were rated over 160 - were Stattler - (the only one likely to re oppose) Kemboy - Fakir Doudairies - Any Second Now.
2 of those are 11 years old.
So 13 more rivals with claims, and a bigger field to contend with than he's faced as a chaser.
And a rarity with a likely field containing 7 or 8 second season chasers aged 7 or 8. This profile of horses have a very good record for improving for this race in particular and many run lifetime bests. There is usually only 3 or 4 that fit the mould though.

So the biggest problem with GDC for this race I have is his price vs the Task.

There is no way he is a 6/4 chance in this field.
I'd definitely take the field at that price but would back him at 3-1 or bigger.
I think we may get this on the day if they all turn up and Willie hasn't completely dominated.

They all have claims for some reason or another, and all are capable of placing at least.

I suppose for serious win prospects it's the top 5 rated though, with potential flyers coming from previous winner Minella Indo, Noble Yeats and Hewick.

But I would not be shocked to see Capodanno, Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian or Stattler go close, as all fit the second season chaser trend and are aged 7 or 8.

I think I would only genuinely discount Royal Pagaille & Eldorado Allen though for win purposes.
They are the only 2 I have not backed after ending up with another book for this race.
I'm not a book builder but have ended up with a book in 3 or 4 races by accident.

Absolutely brilliant race in prospect, fingers crossed they all get there.

If my dad asked me for a tip I'd probably chance Noble Yeats as the race may be set up for him. Although I'd wait until declarations as his price really ought to be nearer 14/16-1.
It will get smashed though if Emmet wins the bartlett and county and both are possible.

[ComplyOrDie]

You are quite right Quevega it is looking a fantastic renewal.

I think Galopin has untold potential, but until he does it that's all it is, potential, and I completely agree about his price.

I'm struggling to see a pace angle in the race. Likely Ahoy Senor, but he's going to go a comfortable speed, surely, as what will take him on? Also if he doesnt get into a rhythym and keeps jumping right that will stop it being break neck speed. He's not going to do a Native River, I don't suspect.

I've not gone mad on anything, but I think if it boils down to a sprint like finish, almost like last season, then it will suit A Plus Tard again, but will probably also suit the likes of Galopin, Conflated & possibly Bravemansgame as well. If it turns into a war of attrition then that brings the stamina into play and Noble Yeats & Stattler would have a chance for me.

As I can't currently see much offering a serious race pace I'd be siding with one of APT, Conflated or Bravemansgame at this stage. At the prices it wouldn't be GDC.

I don't have a penny on Bravemansgame yet, but he'll come under consideration on the day. The other two I have backed, in one form or another.

[Many Clouds]

Great summary Q it really is a great renewal with like you say only L'homme Presse not turning up so far. Hard to argue with the statement that its one of the best ever with so many having genuine chances and not many where you would be suprised if they won.

Only got 5 of them covered at the moment and hoping to have GDC and APT as last legs of accas all being well. But aside from the betting involvement of it, it's very exciting to see how this plays out.

Having such a strong and open field in the biggest race of the festival is fantastic. Genuinely looks like one of those where you could run it 10 times and get 8/9 or even 10 different winners.

[EnvoiAlien]

Also the mention of Rachel possibly riding Minella Indo is off-putting.

If Rachel gets off the defending GC champ who she's only not rode once in all of his chase starts I'd be taking that as a massive negative,not because the horse looks a complicated ride,more so that she'd know the horse inside out & if she isn't wanting the ride I'd assume she thinks on what it's been doing at home it isn't showing the sort of form capable of backing up last years win.

[Craigy14]

For me A Plus Tards prep is bad enough to not fancy him imo and I’m surprised his price is what it is, well not surprised as we know how ridiculous the bookies are these days!

Yes he’s the defending champ, but his season has been disastrous. Pulled up in the Betfair having not gone a yard, clearly has had more issues along the way to miss Xmas and the DRF. Now this week the statement from HDB as I mentioned earlier is far from convincing he’ll even be ready for the race imo.

Of all the big players he would be the one to oppose for me. I’d rather back Galopin than APT at the prices which seems crazy but just how I see it. Ain’t getting rich off it but by far a better chance imo.

[BigChaang]

Excellent Summary Quevega ,
................................................ Fortunately for myself , the Gold Cup is one of the first Races.
I start backing in after the festival , so sitting on some decent prices for several of the key players .

I cashed out half my A.P.T stake last week , after seeing the interview on i.t.v. with chevely park man.
Doesn't fill me with any Confidence , and i suppose i can have another go on the day if he look's o.k.

The one i haven't backed who I think could be a danger is Noble Yeats , but he's still a decent price.
So in No Particular order ... I'll say Bravemansgame , Conflated , Noble Yeats and Galopin des champs .
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[Istabraq]

I don't have a penny on Bravemansgame yet, but he'll come under consideration on the day. The other two I have backed, in one form or another.

If Bravemansgame wins the deepest Gold Cup in years I'll give the game up...

[Lobos]

If Rachel gets off the defending GC champ who she's only not rode once in all of his chase starts I'd be taking that as a massive negative,not because the horse looks a complicated ride,more so that she'd know the horse inside out & if she isn't wanting the ride I'd assume she thinks on what it's been doing at home it isn't showing the sort of form capable of backing up last years win.

Think FM meant that Rachael switching to Minella Indo would meant that APT was out.

[Lobos]

A bit of confidence brewing on here behind BMG Interesting.....

[archie]

Are the ones who are saying that they can't back GDC at the current price the same ones who thought that he wasn't value at 7/2 before the Durkan?

The horse doesn't know his price. He wins if he gets round......in my opinion.

[Quevega]

Are the ones who are saying that they can't back GDC at the current price the same ones who thought that he wasn't value at 7/2 before the Durkan?

The horse doesn't know his price. He wins if he gets round.

For me, absolutely YES.
I like the confidence though archie

However, It's very contradictory from yourself based on the many occasions you've been against backing short priced horses antepost.
2-1 available now on the machines is a lot better bet than 7-2 before the Durkan.
You could have got 11-4 NRNB and on the machines (5-2ish) after his Irish Gold cup win also.

And - Barring major absentees, anyone with a knowledge of the markets can see that the bookies will easily be able to offer bigger than 2-1 on the day, or after declarations.

The 7-2 may have worked out in some seasons, if the race had fallen apart, but this year it hasn't.

[ComplyOrDie]

Are the ones who are saying that they can't back GDC at the current price the same ones who thought that he wasn't value at 7/2 before the Durkan?

The horse doesn't know his price. He wins if he gets round.

It's a competitive enough looking race, he shouldn't be 6/4, he'll be bigger on the day, IMO.

I backed him in some multiples & small roll ups at 7/2 more in hope he'd stay the trip than anything else.

I'm not sure what relevance the horse not knowing his price has, you could say that for every single horse that runs on a daily basis. It's also not their money, it's the punters, so it is their opinion on where their money ends up. It's a silly expression, IMO, though I know you're not the first to use it, so please don't take it personally (I've definitely said it before ).

[Irish Rugby]

Are the ones who are saying that they can't back GDC at the current price the same ones who thought that he wasn't value at 7/2 before the Durkan?

The horse doesn't know his price. He wins if he gets round.

Yea, the same types who thought early last summer that 2/1 on Constitution Hill wasn't value. Folks, we don't set the prices, and the market place is what it is.

[Istabraq]

Yea, the same types who thought early last summer that 2/1 on Constitution Hill wasn't value. Folks, we don't set the prices, and the market place is what it is.

That 2/1 Constitution Hill wasn't great but what made it worse was that many bookmakers, 365 being the worst, also quoted Honeysuckle 5/2 and State Man 6/1, twelve months out they have near enough a 100% book on three horses...