The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Saxon Warrior]

TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 18th


CHELTENHAM
Tuesday, March 11th

THE ULTIMA HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1)
(Premier Hcap)

TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 150,000

Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
GBP 84,405 to the winning horse
The second to receive GBP 31,800,
the third GBP 15,915,
the fourth GBP 7,950,
the fifth GBP 3,990,
the sixth GBP 1,995,
the seventh GBP 990 and
the eighth GBP 510

for five yrs old and upwards

THREE MILES ABOUT ONE FURLONG (3m 1f)

Enter by noon, February 18th and pay GBP 225 stake
Confirm by noon, March 5th and pay GBP 525
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 9th

Weights publish on February 23rd
Penalties, after February 23rd, 2024, a winner of a steeple chase 5lb
(No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)

PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of four times in Steeple Chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code

Last 10 Year Winners;

2024 Chianti Classico 7-11-4. 6/1
Kim Bailey - David Bass. RPR 155

2023 Corach Rambler 9-11-5. 6/1JF Lucinda Russell - Derek Fox. RPR 159 (OR 146)

2022 Corach Rambler. 8-10-2. 10/1 Lucinda Russell - Derek Fox. RPR 151 (OR 140)

2021 Vintage Clouds 11-10-11 28/1 Sue Smith - Ryan Mania RPR 155 (OR 143)

2020 The Conditional. 8-10-6. 15/2. David Bridgwater - Brendan Powell. RPR 148 (OR 139)

2019 Beware The Bear. 9-11-8. 10/1. Nicky Henderson - Jeremiah McGrath. RPR 161 (OR 151)

2018. Coo Star Sivola. 6-10-10. 5/1F. Nick Williams - Lizzie Kelly (3). RPR 151 (OR 142)

2017. Un Temps Pour Tout 8-11-12. 9/1. David Pipe - Tom Scudamore. RPR 163 (OR 155)

2016. Un Temps Pour Tout 7-11-7 11/1. David Pipe - Tom Scudamore. RPR 163 (OR 148)

2015. The Druids Nephew. 8-11-3. 8/1. Neil Mulholland - Barry Geraghty. RPR 158 (OR 146)

2014. Holywell. 7-11-6. 10/1. Jonjo O'Neill - Richie McLernon. RPR 163 (OR 145)


2024 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 143, OR 147, 4th 139 (High OR 153, Low OR 134). 21 Ran
2023 1st OR 146, 2nd OR 150, 3rd OR 140, 4th OR 149 (High OR 155, Low OR 129) 23 ran
2022 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 138, 4th OR 145 (High OR 164, Low OR 138) 24 ran
2021 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 147, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 158 (High OR 158, Low OR 132) 16 ran
2020 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 150, 3rd OR 148, 4th OR 159 (High OR 159, Low OR 133). 23 ran
2019 1st OR 151, 2nd OR 144, 3rd OR 155, 4th OR 140 (High OR 155, Low OR 140). 24 ran
2018 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 131, 4th OR 150 (High OR 155, Low OR 137). 18 ran
2017 1st OR 155, 2nd OR 142, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 145 (High OR 155, Low OR 134). 23 ran
2016 1st OR 148, 2nd OR 153, 3rd OR 149, 4th OR 150 (High OR 153, Low OR 131). 23 ran
2015 1st OR 146, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 134, 4th OR 139 (High OR 155, Low OR 133). 24 ran
2014 1st OR 145, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 131, 4th OR 143 (High OR 151, Low OR 129). 23 ran

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…..2025 TREND ANALYSIS reference material;

1) AGE
Assessing the age is vitally important when narrowing down the Ultima Handicap field. Ten of the last 12 winners of the race were aged between seven and nine, meaning an improving type tends to come out on top in the stamina-sapping race.

The only exception to this rule in ten editions was the eleven-year-old Vintage Clouds for trainer Sue Smith in 2021. Chianti Classico was the first seven-year-old winner since Un Temps Pour Tout in 2016.

2) MARKET ODDS;
The market traditionally is a good guide when it comes to betting on the Ultima Handicap Chase. Despite the fact that just two of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint-favourites, the winner has been found within the top three of the market in seven of the last 12 renewals.

However, it has been a solid recent period for favourites, with both Corach Rambler and Chianti Classico either being outright or co-favourite in the last two runnings.

3) CHELTENHAM EXPERIENCE
Previous Cheltenham experience is a must when assessing Ultima Handicap Chase contenders. All of the last 12 winners have had at least one previous start at the course, while eight winners over the same period have made two or more appearances at Cheltenham before winning the handicap at the Festival.
This trend goes against current market-leader Masaccio, as the Alan King-trained runner is yet to line up at the home of jumps racing

4) RECENT FORM;
Recent form is worth considering when lining up a bet for the Ultima. Ten of the last 12 winners have made at least three starts that season, while nine of the 12 winners have recorded at least one win.

Winning experience over fences also counts for a lot, with all but one of the last 12 winners having already got their nose in front over fences before landing success at the Festival.

5) OFFICIAL RATINGS;
Official ratings appear to be a good indicator when it comes to assessing the Ultima field. Ten of the winners since 2013 have been rated 140 or higher, which includes each of the last two. The lowest-rated winner since 2014 was The Conditional for David Bridgwater in 2020, who was rated 139.

Classier types have been winning the race in recent years, with Chianti Classico winning off 143 in 2024 and Corach Rambler landing the win of 146 in 2023.


Positives - Pre-2025 Festival

* 10 of the past 15 winners had run at Cheltenham earlier in the season
* 9 of the past 13 winners wore headgear

* 6 of the past 11 winners were novices
* 13 of the past 17 winners finished in the first 4 on their previous start (6 won)
* 11 of the past 15 winners carried 10-10+
* 11 of the past 17 winners were rated between 142-148
* 10 of the past 11 winners returned at 11-1 or shorter

* 5 of the past 10 winners had contested the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury
* 5 of the past 14 winners ran in the race the previous year
* 4 of the past 9 winners were course-winning novices

* Grade 1-winning hurdlers boasted a good record not so long back
* Respect form over 3m+
* Respect David Pipe-trained runners
* Respect Jonjo O’Neill-trained runners
* Respect runners trained in the North


Negatives - Pre-2025 Festival

* Irish-trained horses are 0-46 during the past 18 years
* Only 2 Irish-trained winners in the past 56 renewals (since 1967)
* Only 2 of the past 17 winners were rated in the 130s
* Only 3 of the past 17 winners had not run at a previous Festival
* Be wary of those stepping up in distance

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Entries in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the 2024 Cheltenham;

1. Affordale Fury (IRE)
2. Broadway Boy (IRE)
3. Conflated (IRE)
4. Copperhead
5. Crebilly (IRE)
6. Famous Bridge (IRE)
7. Fantastic Lady (FR)
8. Farouk d’Alene (FR)
9. Favori de Champdou (FR)
10. Frero Banbou (FR)
11. Ga Law (FR)
12. Gelino Bello (FR)
13. Ginny’s Destiny (IRE)
14. Gold Tweet (FR)
15. Grandeur d’Ame (FR)
16. Guard Your Dreams
17. Happygolucky (IRE)
18. Henry’s Friend (IRE)
19. Herakles Westwood (FR)
20. Hyland (FR)
21. Iris Emery (FR)
22. Johnnywho (IRE)
23. Katate Dori (FR)
24. King Turgeon (FR)
25. La Malmason (IRE)
26. La Renommee (FR)
27. Le Patron (FR)
28. Lowry’s Bar (IRE)
29. Malina Girl (IRE)
30. Masaccio (IRE)
31. Mint Boy (IRE)
32. Myretown (IRE)
33. Pats Fancy (IRE)
34. Quick Wave (FR)
35. Richmond Lake (IRE)
36. Sa Fureur (IRE)
37. Search For Glory (IRE)
38. Sequestered (IRE)
39. Shakem Up’arry (IRE)
40. Stay Away Fay (IRE)
41. Straw Fan Jack
42. Tahmuras (FR)
43. The Changing Man (IRE)
44. The Short Go (IRE)
45. Trelawne
46. Victtorino (FR)
47. Whistle Stop Tour (IRE)
48. Will Do (IRE)
49. Zanahiyr (IRE)

[TiggerRoll]

It might pay to avoid Irish horses here with plenty of more lucrative targets for their better staying handicappers at home (Irish National etc) which means that more often than not they don’t turn up. Recent Irish runner tally stands at:

2021 - 2 (6th and 9th)
2020 - 2 (3rd and F)
2019 - 4 (7th, 8th, 10th and PU)
2018 - 0
2017 - 3 (3rd, 9th and 13th)
2016 - 3 (4th, 14th and U)
2015 - 2 (2nd and 3rd)
2014 - 1 (PU)
2013 - 2 (3rd and 9th)
2012 - 1 (6th)

The only thing that springs to mind which might see that change a little this year is if Gordon's on a mission to make up for lost time in terms of his Festival winners tally.

[Eggs]

….Sky have removed their Handicap RaB offers but one remains for this race that I can’t see in any market;

Kiltealy Briggs @ 33-1

[Maxfield]

Would Cloth Cap run in this?

[RufusFlynn]

….Sky have removed their Handicap RaB offers but one remains for this race that I can’t see in any market;

Kiltealy Briggs @ 33-1

For anyone interest in the horse, Jamie Snowdon in the RP has said that he will be aimed here so at least the target is correct. Finished 9th in the Plate last year and owners sponsor the Ultima so surely will want to win their race at some point.

[ComplyOrDie]

Would Cloth Cap run in this?

Yeah, it's certainly possible, I'd say. He's dropped a fair bit in the weights, and he's not the only British horse to do so either.

[Maxfield]

Yeah, it's certainly possible, I'd say. He's dropped a fair bit in the weights, and he's not the only British horse to do so either.

Thanks COD, he's one I like for the race.

[Odin]

Would Cloth Cap run in this?

I suspect they would want another go at the Grand National with CC, but don't have any inside info. Keep an eye on Vintage Clouds' performances as well. Last years winner and the year before's Peter Marsh winner (middle of Jan) - he's down to the same mark as both those wins and I expect him to go to the Peter Marsh next. If he wins there he won't win the Ultima, if he runs poorly they might be aiming him at an Ultima repeat and CC at Grand National

[Loubell]

Does He Know for Kim Bailey. Very similar profile to Happygolucky from last year, following the same sort of path with early season runs under his belt.

No price on offer so hopefully he is a forgotten one when introduced into the market and he opens the some sort of price as HGL did.

[taylorch1990]

Does He Know for Kim Bailey. Very similar profile to Happygolucky from last year, following the same sort of path with early season runs under his belt.

No price on offer so hopefully he is a forgotten one when introduced into the market and he opens the some sort of price as HGL did.

Does He Know is 20-1 with bet365 he's one I had in mind for similar reasons. The other would be Remastered, likely to get softest conditions on the Tuesday ran a decent race in the NH Chase last season and that race had worked out well. Think he's best priced 25-1.

[Loubell]

Does He Know is 20-1 with bet365 he's one I had in mind for similar reasons. The other would be Remastered, likely to get softest conditions on the Tuesday ran a decent race in the NH Chase last season and that race had worked out well. Think he's best priced 25-1.

I had only checked oddschecker and they don’t have Does He Know listed, shorter than I’d hoped.

Agree with you there too, looks to have a decent pot in him going by his chase starts this season.

[EnvoiAlien]

Does He Know & Papa Tango Charly are the two I'm interested in for this currently.

[The King Pimm]

Does He Know and The Wolf are my antepost selections so far for this race with the former being the more fancied choice. A novice chaser with lots of experience around Cheltenham, nicely weighted and trained by the brilliant Kim Bailey. He’s ran well on his 3 starts this season, completing every time around at Chepstow & Cheltenham over the distance of the Ultima. The Wolf is a genuine outsider but ran very well last time out at Cheltenham, finishing strongly over 3m 2f so has the stamina. He is a second season chaser and while there will be better horses in the race he could be a lively outsider near the foot of the weights for poor Tom George who has a rough season so far

[The King Pimm]

It might pay to avoid Irish horses here with plenty of more lucrative targets for their better staying handicappers at home (Irish National etc) which means that more often than not they don’t turn up. Recent Irish runner tally stands at:

2021 - 2 (6th and 9th)
2020 - 2 (3rd and F)
2019 - 4 (7th, 8th, 10th and PU)
2018 - 0
2017 - 3 (3rd, 9th and 13th)
2016 - 3 (4th, 14th and U)
2015 - 2 (2nd and 3rd)
2014 - 1 (PU)
2013 - 2 (3rd and 9th)
2012 - 1 (6th)

The only thing that springs to mind which might see that change a little this year is if Gordon's on a mission to make up for lost time in terms of his Festival winners tally.

I think there is a gentleman’s agreement between the Irish trainers and British that they leave this handicap alone for the British to win because it’s the only one they may win this year again!!! It’s a noble act of generosity from the Irish because of how rubbish the British have been of late at the Festival.

[Benjy23]

Avoiding Irish horses antepost looks a good shout, as not many seem to run.

Aside from not having a winner (yet), they don't seem to run too badly when they do turn up though. Must have a reasonable percentage of places v runners on those numbers.