The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[FinalFurlong91]

Every time I bet using trends a 10/10 or 9/10 stat gets busted

[Frankely My Dear]

Yep, data can be manipulated to support your bias and points can be chosen or ignored at will. Something I aim to learn is what trend stats are meaningless and appear just because. The Cheltenham one is a good case in point, as could rule out a decent UK entry. Once weights are finalised after Kala's exit I'll look at those as there is a range trend.

This is the first year I've gone to this much detail so hopefully the outcomes provide some learnings

[Studfarm254]

I watched that race earlier and ended up backing nara at 20s

Looked a tender enough ride to me

Was keen for most of the way round so should be suited by the big field strong pace

Listed winner in Auteuil by 8 lengths bought by JP and has had had 2 runs for Henry and not been put into either race

The usual JP ride, travelling strongly further back than ideal then a few elbow shakes from the jockey pretending to ride the horse out

given jonjo has ridden Milan tino in both his UK starts and mark walsh has ridden nara both times you'd imagine those jockey bookings will remain

walsh/jp have won with aramax and Brazil in recent years

Very interesting at 20s nrnb imo

Aramax won the race by 8 lengths and Brazil by 13, Nara was beaten 13 so I don’t really see the comparison there. At the time they didn’t know entries/marks etc so I really don’t think they’d have wanted to lose by 13 lengths knowing they might not get into the race if he was a proper plot job from the outset, I just don’t think he’s very good at all. I know it’s the boodles and anything could win it but he certainly wouldn’t be my pint of ice cold Heineken!

[DenmanSacre]

Aramax won the race by 8 lengths and Brazil by 13, Nara was beaten 13 so I don’t really see the comparison there. At the time they didn’t know entries/marks etc so I really don’t think they’d have wanted to lose by 13 lengths knowing they might not get into the race if he was a proper plot job from the outset, I just don’t think he’s very good at all. I know it’s the boodles and anything could win it but he certainly wouldn’t be my pint of ice cold Heineken!

She was massively wrong at the weights so she was getting a Mark Walsh special to not be within 10 lengths of the winner. I'm not 100% sure about her, backed her and cashed out and am just leaving it to the day now but it wouldn't surprise me if she bolted up on the day. I suppose we will know from the market if she's fancied as there will be a plunge being a JP owned handicapper.

[Lobos]

She was massively wrong at the weights so she was getting a Mark Walsh special to not be within 10 lengths of the winner. I'm not 100% sure about her, backed her and cashed out and am just leaving it to the day now but it wouldn't surprise me if she bolted up on the day. I suppose we will know from the market if she's fancied as there will be a plunge being a JP owned handicapper.

Was definitely an odd ride from Walsh on what was her final run to get qualified for a handicap. Smells like a plot to me and at the prices she's worth chancing for sure in what looks a pretty dire race.

[Eggs]

Lark In The Mornin heads the betting for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, but O’Brien revealed his participation is “up in the air”.

Considering some of his other running plans, he said: “Nurburgring is an intended runner in the Triumph Hurdle, he is still entered in the Boodles but he’s going to run in the Triumph.

“Home By The Lee is in the Stayers’ Hurdle, we’ll have Solness in the Grand Annual and Busselton in the Ultima Handicap Chase, so there’s a few runners there.”

[Lobos]

Understandable as they were unable to get that crucial run into him.

[Eggs]

Understandable as they were unable to get that crucial run into him.

….doesn’t mention Cossack Chac but has said previously he’s an intended runner.

[Ray]

….doesn’t mention Cossack Chac but has said previously he’s an intended runner.

Yh lets move on we dont want to bang this drum too loud

[Eggs]

…HdB;

‘Nara is heading to the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. We’ve been happy with her. She’s a bit of an unknown quantity in a race like this, but we’ll let her take her chance and see what happens.’

[Lobos]

…HdB;

‘Nara is heading to the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. We’ve been happy with her. She’s a bit of an unknown quantity in a race like this, but we’ll let her take her chance and see what happens.’

Unknown quantity my a**

[Benjy23]

…HdB;

‘Nara is heading to the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. We’ve been happy with her. She’s a bit of an unknown quantity in a race like this, but we’ll let her take her chance and see what happens.’

A rare one I've got right taking the antepost position!

Should really record the antepost v NRNB prices at this stage and how best to play some races

[Blackdownhills]

.What's people's thoughts on Miss Manzor? Looking through the minefield of a race, and the backform in France. I think this mare could be a bit overlooked

[Madmoose]

.What's people's thoughts on Miss Manzor? Looking through the minefield of a race, and the backform in France. I think this mare could be a bit overlooked

Well if you take the form literally then she should be shorter than Ndaawi who she had behind lto receiving weight as per she will on Tues, The Elliott runner since won again so who’s to say Miss Manzor won’t?

[Blackdownhills]

Well if you take the form literally then she should be shorter than Ndaawi who she had behind lto receiving weight as per she will on Tues, The Elliott runner since won again so who’s to say Miss Manzor won’t?

Indeed. Be interesting to see who's jocked up. Mullins I'm sure is desperate to finally win this and i think this could be his best dart.