The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Quevega]

The reason I think she would have a shout in the triumph by the way, I mentioned the other day.
With her allowance this puts her at 143, and I think the UK handicapper has put Hello Neighbour around the 145 mark, and I know he has put East India Dock up to 146.
I think Galileo Dame, who is set to run in the triumph will be rated 137 (144 with allowance)

It's why the 16-1 vs 4-1 Galileo vs Hello N seems out of sync.
Value on offer here

[Quevega]

Thanks mate. I’m gonna demonstrate some discipline and keep it at one I think

You can give me some advice on that aspect at some point.

[Studfarm254]

You may be right but it could also easily be the case that there are others with even more in hand . Her job is to not run ahead of her mark but do it by more than every other horse. So can I ask your very impressive gut whether it is confident that nothing else has more in hand and if so why? Preferably by referencing others in the race and why you believe they don’t have as much in hand

All 4 of the JP horses are interesting. It’s the Fred winter so obviously I can’t say she’s 100% winning lol. That’s why you back each way when most bookies are paying 5 places. My gut is telling me she’ll run very well and be in the 1st 3 home with a good chance of winning.

[Eggs]

….Elliott;

’Wendrock goes here, but looks badly handicapped. The handicapper didn’t miss him.’

[archie]

With the rider that I hate this race and would bin it in the blink of an eye, looking at the 14 horses at 20/1 or less, we have a contest between ex-flat and ex-French that I have chosen to rate in 2 ways.

With ex-flat we can check the difference in OR for flat and NH. Rule of thumb was about 45 uplift from flat to NH but possibly less for young horses. On this measure best in are Hot Fuss and Lavender Hill Mob at +29 and +25 respectively.

For ex-French, the easiest comparator is best RPR as this can also be applied to the ex-flat and also shows directly in the race RPRs. Here we have
OR - best RPR (lower means better chance)
3 Stencil
7 Out For A Stroll
8 Hot Fuss
8 Murcia
8 Total Look

Based on that I'd probably go for Hot Fuss each way at 16/1, particularly as his prep run was on the flat, presumably with the aim of protecting the hurdle mark. It seems that he acts on good or soft ground swhich may not be true of some of those shorter in the betting, particularly the ex-French. Just needs to make the cut now!