Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Kautostar]

No TWAR on allaho and darver star?? Surely they’re the horses TWAR was invented for.....

[jonthehammer]

No TWAR on allaho and darver star?? Surely they’re the horses TWAR was invented for.....

Allaho 8/1 Hills

Darver Star 16/1 Hills

[The Beast]

We won't know which race he'll run in until a few days before, if of course he does ok up until then. Another heavy downpour when Gordon was walking the course last season and he probably would have switched to the Supreme. The Marsh is on the Thursday and if its a warm week then the ground will dry out quickly. They'll not risk him on quicker ground so the RSA would then be their choice. If it was wet before and during festival then Marsh would be favourite. We simply won't know until very near the time which doesn't help betting wise. His TWAR price is desperately short but in view of the above imo it's the smartest way to play it.

Pretty much how i see it Lobo , TWAR the smart way , cuts out all the bullshit , sweating on will he or wont he and connections comments murking the water further. He then just has to go any win of course.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Pretty much how i see it Lobo , TWAR the smart way , cuts out all the bullshit , sweating on will he or wont he and connections comments murking the water further. He then just has to go any win of course.

Surely it has to be on a case by case basis. Risk v reward is this biggest factor, imo. For example, there's no point taking 12/1 TWAR, if you make it odds on your selection is going a race that he's 33/1 for.

[The Beast]

Surely it has to be on a case by case basis. Risk v reward is this biggest factor, imo. For example, there's no point taking 12/1 TWAR, if you make it odds on your selection is going a race that he's 33/1 for.

Exactly right , but could you today put a grand say on Envoi to win marsh at 3/1. You couldnt with confidence likewise a grand on him in RSA. Cant be doing with the stress of will he or wont he. Whichever race he goes for he likely to be very short in betting if he takes to it like we think he will.

[Hardy Eustace]

Allaho 8/1 Hills

Darver Star 16/1 Hills

Allaho 10/1 TWAR with hills

Which is the same price as they have him as in the Ryanair.

[Kautostar]

Allaho 10/1 TWAR with hills

Which is the same price as they have him as in the Ryanair.

Sorry that was the point I was making just worded badly. It was aimed at lobos as to why he didn’t back allaho and darver star TWAR when they are two horses who’s targets are up in the air and as you pointed out with allaho there’s hardly any difference between the TWAR odds and the odds for the Ryanair.

[jonthehammer]

Allaho 10/1 TWAR with hills

Which is the same price as they have him as in the Ryanair.

Sorry Sky was 8s. Looked at wrong column haha

[Hardy Eustace]

Mark Howard every time for me. I do like the Jamie Codd contribution in Paul Fergusons book though but apart from that Marks for me.

Thanks mate. Thanks also FM.

I have never bought Paul Ferguson but buy Mark Howard’s every year. Good read. Except for last year where his interview with Jared Sullivan saying laurina was staying over hurdles cost me a few quid. Other than that I’m a big fan. I think he gave a shout out to (excuse the spelling) feu de Brasil last year - wonder if we see him this year. Either way time to order this years addition.

[Lobos]

Sorry that was the point I was making just worded badly. It was aimed at lobos as to why he didn’t back allaho and darver star TWAR when they are two horses who’s targets are up in the air and as you pointed out with allaho there’s hardly any difference between the TWAR odds and the odds for the Ryanair.

Took 12/1 Allaho Ryanair and 25/1 Darver Star Arkle. Didn't do them TWAR as IMO Allaho will not be winning a GC and Darver Star is soooooooo suited to an Arkle and will not be taking on/beating Envoi in a Marsh.

[Kevloaf]

Took 12/1 Allaho Ryanair and 25/1 Darver Star Arkle. Didn't do them TWAR as IMO Allaho will not be winning a GC and Darver Star is soooooooo suited to an Arkle and will not be taking on/beating Envoi in a Marsh.

Why are you so convinced he's suited to an Arkle rather than the intermediate trip?


If there had been an intermediate trip for him to run at, at Cheltenham he would have done.

If he'd been a novice, he'd have been in the Ballymore.




Cash out fella.



When behind Envoi Allen (2.5L) over 2 miles....

Chased leaders, disputed 3rd after 2nd, 5th halfway, pushed along behind leaders before 2 out where not much room and soon switched left, ridden in 5th after 2 out and went 3rd from last, kept on well for pressure run-in, never troubled leaders





That is a horse who wants a step up in trip, no?

The trainer has literally said those words too.....but I won't get you to change your mind will I




****also, his CH run...

Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, ridden to lead between last 2, headed last, lost 2nd run-in, kept on same pace final 100yds (op 10/1)



You think that is a run of a genuine 2 miler?

[Lobos]

Why are you so convinced he's suited to an Arkle rather than the intermediate trip?


If there had been an intermediate trip for him to run at, at Cheltenham he would have done.

If he'd been a novice, he'd have been in the Ballymore.




Cash out fella.



When behind Envoi Allen (2.5L) over 2 miles....

Chased leaders, disputed 3rd after 2nd, 5th halfway, pushed along behind leaders before 2 out where not much room and soon switched left, ridden in 5th after 2 out and went 3rd from last, kept on well for pressure run-in, never troubled leaders





That is a horse who wants a step up in trip, no?

The trainer has literally said those words too.....but I won't get you to change your mind will I




****also, his CH run...

Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, ridden to lead between last 2, headed last, lost 2nd run-in, kept on same pace final 100yds (op 10/1)



You think that is a run of a genuine 2 miler?

You are right. I'm not going to change my mind. You know me. You may well be right but for me he's finished 2nd in a Irish Champion Hurdle giving weight to a top, top Mare and then finished 3rd in THE Champion Hurdle finishing 3rd and giving weight to another top, top Mare. He's proved himself around Cheltenham over the minimum distance and is likely to be the highest rated 2 mile hurdler to tackle the Arkle. His owner said immediately after the race that the Arkle would be his target and that was my immediate thought also and I always think first impressions are the most important and stick in people's minds. He may well run over 2 1/2 over fences before Cheltenham but it'll be against inferior horses and on 'softer' tracks than Cheltenham so I fully expect him to revert to 2 miles in March. If, as expected Envoi goes Marsh, then DS would, imo and I suspect the connections opinion, have a better chance against Shiskin in the Arkle.

[Quevega]

You are right. I'm not going to change my mind. You know me. You may well be right but for me he's finished 2nd in a Irish Champion Hurdle giving weight to a top, top Mare and then finished 3rd in THE Champion Hurdle finishing 3rd and giving weight to another top, top Mare. He's proved himself around Cheltenham over the minimum distance and is likely to be the highest rated 2 mile hurdler to tackle the Arkle. His owner said immediately after the race that the Arkle would be his target and that was my immediate thought also and I always think first impressions are the most important and stick in people's minds. He may well run over 2 1/2 over fences before Cheltenham but it'll be against inferior horses and on 'softer' tracks than Cheltenham so I fully expect him to revert to 2 miles in March. If, as expected Envoi goes Marsh, then DS would, imo and I suspect the connections opinion, have a better chance against Shiskin in the Arkle.

If he turns out to be a really good chaser. I personally doubt it.
Do you think they would go for the big one instead ?
Given his age ?
And the fact he was a novice running in a champion hurdle (albeit a very experienced one). There is a chance the champion chase looks more winnable I suppose. It was this year, at the tapes in any case.

[Saxon Warrior]

Not sure of the plans that the Tizzard’s have for Master Debonair, Over jumps, but they have entered him in a 1M4F Novice Stakes at Ascot on the flat on Friday.

[Attaglance]

Took 12/1 Allaho Ryanair and 25/1 Darver Star Arkle. Didn't do them TWAR as IMO Allaho will not be winning a GC and Darver Star is soooooooo suited to an Arkle and will not be taking on/beating Envoi in a Marsh.

Not with you on this at all Lobos and I thought you loved the age factor/stats!! Darver Star will be 9 come Cheltenham and the last 9 year old to win an Arkle was Danish Flight in 1988!