2022 Novice Hurdle Division

[Saxon Warrior]

They’re all rockets at this time of the year.

Its a period of great optimism.

[BigChaang]

They’re all rockets at this time of the year.

Its a period of great optimism.

Yes , Talking of Rockets ... Impulsive One . ( Munir / Souede / Nicky H ). absolutely flew up the hill at Plumpton Yesterday .

[Mighty]

Yes , Talking of Rockets ... Impulsive One . ( Munir / Souede / Nicky H ). absolutely flew up the hill at Plumpton Yesterday .

I was at Plumpton yesterday and Impulsive One was impressive against a field that whilst wasn’t the strongest, had a couple of decent winners in Fred Bear and The Yellow Mini.

Impulsive One jumped cleanly for the most part, and dealt well with Fred Bear’s dramatic bucking bronco attempt at the first despite being unsettled. Decent turn of pace up the hill and outpaced rivals easily to win by 10+ lengths. Definitely looked a class apart in that field, though will be interesting to see how it copes in stronger company.

[Black Dog]

After seeing NH's comments on Firestep and watching his 2 races i decided to have 1/2pt at 66/1 with Ladbrokes. They offered me a maximum stake of 15 pence . Took 50/1 with B365 instead .

[Sprinter Sacre]

I'd be interested in what people are thinking about Cheveley Park's novice hurdlers (https://twitter.com/Ruby_Tuesday59/s...528679435?s=20)

Seems Grangeclare West is the stayer, Classic Getaway and Guily Buily a bit of a mystery. Seems the bookies are struggling too; all three are fairly evenly priced across Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett, and even in the same races e.g. Classic Getaway is 20/1 for the Supreme on 365, but 5/1 on Sky.

[Lobos]

I'm just going to wait on where they are entered up for their seasonal debuts and then pounce. Impossible to say now which race they'll end up in and the TWAR odds are obscene!

[OverTheLast]

I'd be interested in what people are thinking about Cheveley Park's novice hurdlers (https://twitter.com/Ruby_Tuesday59/s...528679435?s=20)

Seems Grangeclare West is the stayer, Classic Getaway and Guily Buily a bit of a mystery. Seems the bookies are struggling too; all three are fairly evenly priced across Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett, and even in the same races e.g. Classic Getaway is 20/1 for the Supreme on 365, but 5/1 on Sky.

Classic Getaway is 5/1 for the Supreme on Sky? That has to be the worst antepost price ever

[Winging The Last]

I'd be interested in what people are thinking about Cheveley Park's novice hurdlers (https://twitter.com/Ruby_Tuesday59/s...528679435?s=20)

Seems Grangeclare West is the stayer, Classic Getaway and Guily Buily a bit of a mystery. Seems the bookies are struggling too; all three are fairly evenly priced across Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett, and even in the same races e.g. Classic Getaway is 20/1 for the Supreme on 365, but 5/1 on Sky.

From the rest of the book the comments are as follows:

Classic Getaway
Paul Ferguson - Doesn't really know what his trip will be but suggests Ballymore as the potential target
Richard Thompson - No mention of trip
Patrick Mullins - He says 2 1/2 miles or possibly even further now he goes jumping

Given that his bumper run was over 2 1/2 miles you could say they look at him as more than a 2 miler so that means Bally or AB. And based on everything I've heard I don't think he'll be going the Supreme.

Grangeclare West
Paul Ferguson - Pedigree suggests he is a stayer and Paul suggests he will step up in trip over the season
Richard Thompson - Looks a stayer by was surprised with the ease he won his bumper
Patrick Mullins - Thinks he has more pace than Classic Getaway, suggests he thinks he will be campaigned between 2m and 2 1/2 miles
Jamie Codd - No mention of trip but rates him very highly

From reading that I don't see them going the Supreme with him either as they see him as a future stayer as well

Guilly Billy
Paul Ferguson - No mention of trip though and echos below of Richard Thompson
Richard Thompson - No mention of trip though mentions will probably start off in a bumper and will be hurdling after before too long

He could go anywhere and as he's the only one of the 4 novices hurdlers not with HDB I think he will be the one that will most likely end up in a race with another of the owners horses if they all make it the Cheltenham

Sir Gerhard
Sort of Forgotten that he is a novice hurdler like the other 3 for CPS

Paul Ferguson - Suspects he will be kept at the minimum trip this season with the supreme the aim
Richard Thompson - No mention of trip again
Patrick Mullins - States that he is quicker of the two (him and Kilcruit), but as he settles so well would see no issue going up in trip. Then states that they will likely split him and Kilcruit between Supreme and Ballymore buy doesn't know which yet.

Based on the above i would say that then send SG to the Supreme and Kilcruit beyond that, with the Ballymore favourite atm


Overall View

My overall view atm for the destination of the above four would be:

Supreme - Sir Gerhard
Ballymore - Grangeclare Native (because he has more pace that CG)
Albert Bartlett - Classic Getaway
Guilly Billy - Any of the above


Just will I'm touching on Willies novice hurdlers I will try to make a guess where they will all end up tripwise by March. Though some could end up in handicaps if not as good as the others:

Supreme
Sir Gerhard
Dark Raven
Hubrisko

Ballymore
Kilcruit
Dysart Dynamo
Grangeclaire Native

Albert Bartlett
Classic Getaway

Mares Novice
Ashroe Diamond
Belle Metal
Brandy Love
Grangee
Take Tea

Unknown
State Man
Hunters Yarn
Adamantly Chosen

So much ammunition at his disposal this year

[Spectre]

I agree with that assessment WTL. I think the two interchangeable ones are possibly Dark Raven and Dysart Dynamo that could both go either way.

I think Guily Billy may stay in bumpers. They're talking about starting out that way, and it would be a convenient way of avoiding the other two.

[Lobos]

Looking at that lot I'm still absolutely convinced one of the CPS horses will end up in the Bumper regardless of what has been mentioned in interviews.

[Spectre]

Add to this Henderson's novices this season, I suspect those two will be going head to head in novice division and it'll be difficult for anyone else to get a look in. Elliott and De Brohmead will try of course, and are really the only one's likely to break the stranglehold.

I think the two of them will have the Supreme between them, and probably the Ballymore too, so it's really only the Albert Bartlett where the others may get a look in. Journey With Me is obviously popular, Elliott has good options, and I suspect Cromwell has another good dart for it.

[Spectre]

Also with what looks like an exceptional bunch of novices, I wonder which ones are destined for handicaps? Anyone any thoughts which of the really nice ones will get 'quiet' campaigns?

[Winging The Last]

Add to this Henderson's novices this season, I suspect those two will be going head to head in novice division and it'll be difficult for anyone else to get a look in. Elliott and De Brohmead will try of course, and are really the only one's likely to break the stranglehold.

I think the two of them will have the Supreme between them, and probably the Ballymore too, so it's really only the Albert Bartlett where the others may get a look in. Journey With Me is obviously popular, Elliott has good options, and I suspect Cromwell has another good dart for it.

I agree its going to really hard for anyone to compete with Hendo or Willie in the division this season (Hendo mainly at the shorter end). The only other yard that I see having a chance at this stage are HDB, Elliott and Cromwell, and maybe Nicholls with Knappers Hill but he most likely will save him for Aintree and Chasing next year.

Elliott has:
Hollow Games - Any race
Gerri Colombe - Ballymore most likely
Jumping Jet - Mares?
Three Stripe Life - Martin Pipe
Vina Ardanza - Really wouldn't be surprised if he goes the Bumper
Party Central - Mares
Ginto - AB (probably a distance stayer in the future)
Mighty Potter - Any Race

HDB:
Journey With Me - AB most likely to keep apart from Gerri Colombe (same owner), with Grand Jury going Supreme (although not top end bases on punchestown run)

Skelton:
Elle Est Belle - Mares

Cromwell:
My Mate Mozzie
Letsbeclearaboutit - AB

There will be the odd other to come through but I really think that all 4 novice hurdles will go to one of these 6 trainers next year

[Winging The Last]

Also with what looks like an exceptional bunch of novices, I wonder which ones are destined for handicaps? Anyone any thoughts which of the really nice ones will get 'quiet' campaigns?

Elliott will definitely plot a few for handicaps. I think Three Strip life for the MP is the main one atm. And Willie will have to send some the handicap way to split them up

[Topofthegame2021]

Looking at that lot I'm still absolutely convinced one of the CPS horses will end up in the Bumper regardless of what has been mentioned in interviews.

With you on that Lobos!

IMO they’d be mad not to send one there to keep that streak going. WPM has serious firepower too, that has to play on their minds too!