Fat Jockey Day One Yankee - Captain: nortonscoin200

[Lobos]

A brilliant strike rate. 2017.....wowsers.

[DenmanSacre]

So if we go all Gordon, Galvin is number 1 on the list. If Escaria Ten is declared in the Ultima, he'd be next for me off 147, which is quite generous for his second to Eklat De Rire.

We would need to decide who in the Boodles we take out of his, then whether we go for Abacadabras or Black Tears.

From the reports, Glorious Zoff will have JK on board, which is a sign its the yards number 1. I'd prefer Riviere D'Etel however.

Her first race at Auteuil was good on the clock and over 2m2 so the Cheltenham Hill shouldn't be an issue. Won her first start in Ireland impressively and was much quicker than the handicap hurdle. The likely strong pace in this shouldn't be a bother in this.

Last race was a slowly run affair where she goes down by 3 and a half lengths to Thedevilacoachman, who next time showed a slow pace and sprint finish is right up his street when winning the listed race against some decent horses.

She does well on the trends.

When fillies line up they have a good record - 4 winners from 15 runners.

11/16 winners ran 3 times over hurdles.

7/14 had ran against the older horses.

Also wears a hood if anyone actually likes that trend for this race.

She does need to break the beaten favourite LTO trend.

Gordon Elliott has 3 winners and 5 placed from 17 runners (with Campeador falling when looking like he would challenge for the win). Effectively a 50% strike rate for the place.

She also races prominently and so should be at less risk of being hampered throughout the race.

I know a lot of people like Glorious Zoff for this but he may shorten in the betting if JK is on board and I'm sure we can get a decent argument from someone on why he would be the GE runner to pick.

[Attaglance]

The past 5 year results speak loud and clear, Gordon does well on Day 1 and as Spectre mentioned on another thread, Willie Mullins normally mops up the last couple of days at the festival.

I like the Gordon Elliot angle and with all that has happened this past week it would not surprise me if he got 3 winners on Day 1. We certainly have to put his runners in the Boodles & NHC, his past record in those races are very good as highlighted with the stats Nortonscoin200 has pulled together.

I like the below Gordon 3.5 angle...

• Ballyadam - Supreme (6-1 possible SP)
• Abracadabras - Champion (10/1 SP)
• Glorious Zoff - Boodles (8-1 SP)
• Galvin - NHC (6/4 SP)

The problem with E/W the prices could be gone and as highlighted if Jack is on Glorious Zoff he could be single figures when we go to place this. I think Abracadabras price will hold with the top 3 in the market, Galvin price depends on RP turning up here and I think Ballyadam will go off 6/1. (Past 2 winners of the supreme have gone in at 6/1 SP)

The above could turn into a win only Yankee if prices collapse totally. Which I would still be keen on. IMO all 4 have solid win chances and plenty of juice in the win prices with Galvin the only one to be near even money.

Must say I have loved the debate with the day 1 Yankee and well done Nortonscoin200 with all the work you are putting into it, hopefully get us all off to a flyer...

[Quevega]

Glorious Zoff - seems to me to be a bit of a social runner (just wanted to use that phrase )
But without the social bit.

I've backed him myself, before anyone starts with the plotty plot nonsense. It's nonsense as the vast majority will have also been trying to do the same.
And he's as much a chance as most.

[nortonscoin200]

So if we go all Gordon, Galvin is number 1 on the list. If Escaria Ten is declared in the Ultima, he'd be next for me off 147, which is quite generous for his second to Eklat De Rire.

We would need to decide who in the Boodles we take out of his, then whether we go for Abacadabras or Black Tears.

From the reports, Glorious Zoff will have JK on board, which is a sign its the yards number 1. I'd prefer Riviere D'Etel however.

Her first race at Auteuil was good on the clock and over 2m2 so the Cheltenham Hill shouldn't be an issue. Won her first start in Ireland impressively and was much quicker than the handicap hurdle. The likely strong pace in this shouldn't be a bother in this.

Last race was a slowly run affair where she goes down by 3 and a half lengths to Thedevilacoachman, who next time showed a slow pace and sprint finish is right up his street when winning the listed race against some decent horses.

She does well on the trends.

When fillies line up they have a good record - 4 winners from 15 runners.

11/16 winners ran 3 times over hurdles.

7/14 had ran against the older horses.

Also wears a hood if anyone actually likes that trend for this race.

She does need to break the beaten favourite LTO trend.

Gordon Elliott has 3 winners and 5 placed from 17 runners (with Campeador falling when looking like he would challenge for the win). Effectively a 50% strike rate for the place.

She also races prominently and so should be at less risk of being hampered throughout the race.

I know a lot of people like Glorious Zoff for this but he may shorten in the betting if JK is on board and I'm sure we can get a decent argument from someone on why he would be the GE runner to pick.

Cracking post DS - love the case you've made for Riviere D'Etel.

She is most certainly on the shortlist.

One of the final 4 has to be a Gordon trained runner in the Boodles - and we have a tough call to make between Glorious Zoff and Riviere D'Etel.

How much the weights are raised and price could both have a bearing.

[nortonscoin200]

The past 5 year results speak loud and clear, Gordon does well on Day 1 and as Spectre mentioned on another thread, Willie Mullins normally mops up the last couple of days at the festival.

I like the Gordon Elliot angle and with all that has happened this past week it would not surprise me if he got 3 winners on Day 1. We certainly have to put his runners in the Boodles & NHC, his past record in those races are very good as highlighted with the stats Nortonscoin200 has pulled together.

I like the below Gordon 3.5 angle...

• Ballyadam - Supreme (6-1 possible SP)
• Abracadabras - Champion (10/1 SP)
• Glorious Zoff - Boodles (8-1 SP)
• Galvin - NHC (6/4 SP)

The problem with E/W the prices could be gone and as highlighted if Jack is on Glorious Zoff he could be single figures when we go to place this. I think Abracadabras price will hold with the top 3 in the market, Galvin price depends on RP turning up here and I think Ballyadam will go off 6/1. (Past 2 winners of the supreme have gone in at 6/1 SP)

The above could turn into a win only Yankee if prices collapse totally. Which I would still be keen on. IMO all 4 have solid win chances and plenty of juice in the win prices with Galvin the only one to be near even money.

Must say I have loved the debate with the day 1 Yankee and well done Nortonscoin200 with all the work you are putting into it, hopefully get us all off to a flyer...

Yep, absolutely with you on all of this Attaglance.

We may yet be forced to go win only if the prices collapse on our chosen ones.

Nothing is ruled in or out at this stage other than at least THREE of the picks must be trained by Gordon.

The fourth pick will either be:

1. A minder from another stable to ensure the 3 Gordon picks behave themselves.

or

2. Another Gordon galactico so we can go The Full Gordon.

As far as I'm concerned the jury is still out on which way to go.

There's a lot of support for Happygolucky which I completely understand. But there may come a time when we have to say: "Hang on a minute the value is gone - this is not a good bet."

For what it's worth I don't think we've reached that stage yet (steady at 6-1).

I'd like to pose the question: What if Escaria Ten or Coko Beach go for the Ultima and one/or both are almost double the price of Happygolucky at final decs? Which is the best bet in that scenario for an each way yankee?


Longhouse Poet (currently 8-1) has also been touted in preference to Galvin (7-2) and Ballyadam has had some support too.

Gordon's record in the National Hunt Chase makes Galvin a strong contender for the Bobby Moore role in my book - but if Royale Pagaille doesn't show up we're probably looking at 6-4. Would that be any good for an each way yankee or would going with Galvin force us to switch to win only in those circumstances.

If - and it is still if - we go with Galvin and one of Gordon's in the Boodles we still need at least one more Gordon - does Abacadbras have a better chance in the CH than Black Tears in the MH (if she turns up) - or do we say both of them are too dodgy and we'd be better off going with Gordon in the Ultima? And that would mean no place for Happygolucky.

The bottom line is that having decided to go primarily/exclusively with Gordon far fewer balls are still in the air.

But we still have to get our Gordon picks right which sure ain't easy.

And it's probably a shade of odds-on we'll have room for one special guest from another stable.

So make a convincing case on who that's going to be - time is getting short.

But feels to me like we're making decent progress.

[nortonscoin200]

Watched race replays of Gordon's 3 potential Boodles contenders again yesterday and must admit I'm not overly optimistic.

RIVIERE D'ETEL will have to settle loads better than she did at Punchestown and Navan to have a chance in this. I couldn't back her with any confidence.

GLORIOUS ZOFF looked pretty smart at Sligo and did well to get up on the all-weather recently. I get it that he's been plotted - and he's certainly on a decent mark - but is he going to be good enough at this level? Have my doubts.

TEEAHUPOO is obviously decent but he's probably going to be lumbered with top weight and is badly treated with Glorious Zoff on an admittedly dodgy form-line with Crassus.

So what do we do - stick with Gordon or look elsewhere?

This race must feature in the each way yankee because of the opportunity it throws up for a decent price.

I think BUSSELTON will go close. He was far from disgraced behind Z and Q but he's single figures already and will probably go off at 6-1 at best.

It's an open race - what else is out there?

[The King Pimm]

I think Busselton is the best bet currently in the Boodles. If reports are true then Galvin will be primed and ready to go. The forum horse Happy Go Lucky has a very good chance so my proposed e/w Yankee for Day 1

Metier
Happygolucky
Galvin
Busselton

[Kevloaf]

I like the Druid's Altar and expect him to be a bigger price than Busselton (again)

Case has been made elsewhere for him, but I love the way he went to win the race, then had enough in hand to go again and put it to bed when Zoffanien came to him again.

[nortonscoin200]

I like the Druid's Altar and expect him to be a bigger price than Busselton (again)

Case has been made elsewhere for him, but I love the way he went to win the race, then had enough in hand to go again and put it to bed when Zoffanien came to him again.

Can he turn the tables on Busselton off levels though - I'd be surprised.

[Kevloaf]

Can he turn the tables on Busselton off levels though - I'd be surprised.

Well yes of course he can.

Was only 5L behind in the one race they've run in.

We can't take that as the literal merit of both horses can we?


Saint Sam being involved muddies that instantly.

[nortonscoin200]

Well yes of course he can.

Was only 5L behind in the one race they've run in.

We can't take that as the literal merit of both horses can we?


Saint Sam being involved muddies that instantly.

Druid's Altar had a significant fitness advantage that day.

He's run twice over hurdles in Ireland the previous month.

Busselton was having his first run for 7 months and making his debut for the yard.

But they obviously rated him above Druid's Altar and the stable jockey was on board.

I accept Druid's Altar could beat him next time but I'd certainly make Busselton favourite to come out on top in a match.

[Kevloaf]

Druid's Altar had a significant fitness advantage that day.

He's run twice over hurdles in Ireland the previous month.

Busselton was having his first run for 7 months and making his debut for the yard.

But they obviously rated him above Druid's Altar and the stable jockey was on board.

I accept Druid's Altar could beat him next time but I'd certainly make Busselton favourite to come out on top in a match.

Yeah, I'm not disputing that to be fair, I'm just highlighting that Druid's Altar, for me, showed significantly more ability in his last run and was in a race the trainer has used successfully before to get one right for here.

The market will likely have Busselton favourite against him in a match too, as they might look at that one run literally.... but that's a very, very basic approach to take and it assumes they were both running on merit that day?


Is there not a slight chance, it is a longer term plan for Druid's Altar, and Nusselton was better fancied as they were seeing if he was a Triumph horse.... turns out, he ain't? Does he definitely, definitely have more in hand?

Were they both running on merit that day?


Given where Druid's Altar ended up and his improvement, I don't think we should just dismiss him like you have based on him being about 5L ahead when they met once?



I like Gordon's, Joseph's and Nicholls' as starting points, price gone on the latters too.... so was just suggesting it as youd covered all the others....




I don't think any of them are standout. I like Druid's Altar, I also like all the others mentioned

[Kevloaf]

I love that I've called him Nusselton, not even going to edit that

[nortonscoin200]

I love that I've called him Nusselton, not even going to edit that

Nice one!

No, you're right, Druid's Altar must come into the reckoning but neither he nor Nusselton are standouts.

Also aware that if we go Galvin, Happygolucky and Nusselton that means we can only end up with a maximum of two Gordon horses in the bet - and that would be a bit of a shame.