I do understand the price difference, but if you are backing a horse 9 places if you are being honest with yourself you do not expect it to win, if you did you would justdo 25/1 4 places and are purely playing for place money. That makes that 10/1 actually a 1/2 shout for it to finish in the top 9 and I don’t consider that great value.
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Champion Hurdle 2020
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Originally posted by Hurricane fly View PostI do understand the price difference, but if you are backing a horse 9 places if you are being honest with yourself you do not expect it to win, if you did you would justdo 25/1 4 places and are purely playing for place money. That makes that 10/1 actually a 1/2 shout for it to finish in the top 9 and I don’t consider that great value.
It's not about the 9 places is it, its about the fact that if you are wrong, you'd still be paid 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th at a better return that CE at 2nd, 3rd, 4th?
Anyway, I'm on both
Good luck HF, and everybody
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The first thing that popped into my head as I watch the replay is Tony Mullins from the FF preview being adament it would end up being a good race. He got slammed for it. Matt Chapman opened the segment saying he hadn't met anyone that thought it was a good CH in terms of quality. The general consensus on here was exactly the same. With the result, were we all wrong? I think so now.
Epatante was a brilliant winner. Really impressive on watching it back, her jump at the last was so nice and she just put lengths between herself and the Sharjah who had been making eye catching progress. He in turn put the rest of the field to bed on what I can only assume was his best day and that puts Epatante as a very impressive winner. Is Sharjah the most reliable yardstick? Absolutely not... but I can't pick a hole in the race really. Epatante with her WFA is a 169 rated winner. The exact same as Annie Power. That is 3 lbs less than Buveur D'air but he'd be 10 next year and Epatante is the one on the up. She's rising 7 next year and I think she's without a doubt the one to beat next year. 4/1 now isn't worth getting involved with because she'll be a fair price as long as Goshen is in the market. Will get to him on day 4 obviously.
Sharjah at 25/1 for next year is perfectly fair though. Backed... read why here #100
Darver Star was 3rd, and the formline with Envoi Allen and Abacadabras was clearly strong. Honeysuckle too can be included as they're all linked via DS. What that means though for me is they have to step up to catch Epatante who was and is clearly superior to my mind. Using DS, the price of 8/1 about Abacadabras doesn't appeal as a bet now either as I'd sooner take her at 4/1 to back up than 8/1 about Abacadbras to improve enough.
Absolutely no interest in anything behind in terms of the Champion Hurdle going forward. Cilaos Emery was exposed as not being good enough, the handicappers were proven to be just that. Supasundae was exposed too (didn't stop me backing him). Coral Cup is his only hope of another festival win if they're clever enough to try and regain thatPetit Mouchoir did nothing for the likes of Klassical Dream and Saldier who will be on the radar next year although I fear too short to actually play with.
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Sharjah was an underrated/overlooked horse all season for me Kev, I was on at 33/1 and was fairly excited 2 out but Epatante went by and put daylight between them.
Does that make the winner high quality, I think we need to assess next seasons performances before we can judge that.
For me so much hinges on what novices stay over timber, Shishkin seems certain to go chasing but with Goshen about and if Aba takes a shot at the Champion Hurdle and if the likes of Saldier and Klassical Dream come back strong then Epatante will have a tougher task defending her crown...
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