Champion Hurdle 2020

[Humble Pie]

We can debate from dusk til dawn about the merits of her price but to summarise ..

Worst quality field for many a year but it is what it is ...sadly

Her price is too short now IMO and I can’t confidently wade into her on a retrieval mission and won’t

Have0.3 pts win @33/1 which goes nowhere rectifying situation

Like many on here have done my bollocks on KD / Saldier / Beuveur Dair

Have deliberately avoided this thread for a while as just the mention of CH this year leaves a sour taste

No rant merely saying as I see it

Congratulations to all who return a profit on this race

[charlie]

We can debate from dusk til dawn about the merits of her price but to summarise ..

Worst quality field for many a year but it is what it is ...sadly

Her price is too short now IMO and I can’t confidently wade into her on a retrieval mission and won’t

Have0.3 pts win @33/1 which goes nowhere rectifying situation

Like many on here have done my bollocks on KD / Saldier / Beuveur Dair

Have deliberately avoided this thread for a while as just the mention of CH this year leaves a sour taste

No rant merely saying as I see it

Congratulations to all who return a profit on this race

That will be the bookmakers

[jack1092]

09/02/2019

So Nicky's view on the jabs was that some of the horses were fine from the jabs, and some weren't, including Epatante.

Yet she ran to an ok level on the 22nd feb which was almost 2 weeks after the jab.

Surely that wouldn't have happened if she wasn't well.

[charlie]

So Nicky's view on the jabs was that some of the horses were fine from the jabs, and some weren't, including Epatante.

Yet she ran to an ok level on the 22nd feb which was almost 2 weeks after the jab.

Surely that wouldn't have happened if she wasn't well.

Could have nothing to do with the jab. Plenty of horses improve from 5 to 6 and she went to the festival last year relatively inexperienced running here. She could just be a better animal this year no?

[Quevega]

Nicky admitted he cannot prove it had anything to do with the Jab, he was simply guessing to provide an excuse for her performance that he expected to have been far better.
Which is fair comment.
I'd say it was likely something else affecting her on the day - but my personal opinion is that it's also unlikely to be the course either.

[Pendil]

Can anyone remember when Hendo had to give them their flu jabs? I mean she did run on the 22nd of Feb?

Jeez Jack that (22nd Feb) was there in full view all the time and I hadn't clocked it. Horses are allowed to run from 8days after having the jab. Hendo was among a number of high profile trainers caught out by the temporary rules introduced at the beginning of Feb last year where you had to have your horses vaccinated within 6 months of running instead of normal up to then of 12 months.

Nicholls for at least 10 years has been doing his twice a year with the second booster being give between Christmas and early Jan. It is, he says why he tends to have a quiet January. He gives them a quiet (walking only) for 1week then a further week cantering before putting them back into full work.

Presuming Charlies date of 9/02/19 is correct then Hendo took a slight chance in running Epatante 13days after the jab, but it was in effect no more than a racecourse gallop. He then had a further 3 weeks to have the mare ready for Cheltenham and any excuse about her below par run resulting from flu jab is complete hogwash

[jack1092]

Could have nothing to do with the jab. Plenty of horses improve from 5 to 6 and she went to the festival last year relatively inexperienced running here. She could just be a better animal this year no?

Yes it could, but i'm just working off what Nicky has said, which really doesn't add up?

Nicky admitted he cannot prove it had anything to do with the Jab, he was simply guessing to provide an excuse for her performance that he expected to have been far better.
Which is fair comment.[/B]
I'd say it was likely something else affecting her on the day - but my personal opinion is that it's also unlikely to be the course either.

Typical Nicky that though. So she was fine to run + hack canter on the 22nd, after the flu jabs, but wasn't ok in the Mares Novice. I hadn't noticed the timeframe this fell in until this morning and was thinkingthe flu jab was a fair excuse.....hard to now. You'd think if something else was troubling her that day, they'd have found it?

[ComplyOrDie]

Backed Verdana Blue, 33/1 E/W (NRNB).

I've got way too involved in this race, especially since my main fancy, Saldier, was ruled out along with stablemate Klassical Dream. Some may even think I've gone mad backing Verdana Blue, but hear me out.

We know she does not like 'Soft' ground, so her performance on seasonal debut at Kempton should be upgraded IMO. Her previous runs on 'Soft' or 'Soft/Heavy' have led her to be beaten a combined total of 172 lengths form just three runs, prior to the run over Christmas.

She was having her first start in 239 days, as opposed to a race fit Epatante, Silver Streak, Ballyandy etc... She'll come on for the run.

She has previous form that makes her of definite interest, the win against Buveur D'air at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle the previous year, the most notable (I'm sure someone will come on and blame Barry (again), but that's going over old ground).

She definitely needs better ground, if it was to come up really soft or heavy I'd be looking at cashing out pre race. This was the excuse I have for her in last seasons Champion Hurdle, as well as having a fairly long season by the time the race come around, this season she goes there a lot fresher.

She's a 33/1 poke for a reason, but in a year where it is a complete mess and wide open I'd not say she was without hope.

[Istabraq]

Backed Verdana Blue, 33/1 E/W (NRNB).

She's a 33/1 poke for a reason, but in a year where it is a complete mess and wide open I'd not say she was without hope.

I like the horse CoD but the modern festival, and the ground that's demanded of it, will ensure horses like her never win a Champion hurdle in my opinion.
Every chance of picking up a big prize at Aintree, Sandown, Ayr or any of the big late season races but I'd struggle to give her any hope on a Cheltenham Tuesday...

[punterorplonker]

Yes Comply!. This is crazy but shes my best bet of the festival..if it was guaranteed good to soft. Ridiculous price and if it was davy on board also it would be some bet for me.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Pretty much guaranteed there will be soft in the going description in some form

[Ray]

Yes its got to be soft now, ive come out of london to work in newbury today although that isnt cheltenham these places are all still exposed and its actually snow and sleet and looks SODDEN im hoping its honeysuckle in this now, benie in the mares with soft ground will be a harder task, this may be perfect for honeysuckle with soft ground and a nice hill!

[MadeinJapan]

Yes its got to be soft now, ive come out of london to work in newbury today although that isnt cheltenham these places are all still exposed and its actually snow and sleet and looks SODDEN im hoping its honeysuckle in this now, benie in the mares with soft ground will be a harder task, this may be perfect for honeysuckle with soft ground and a nice hill!

The more it's looking like Soft, the more I think "Switch Switchy" will be inclined to run Benie here. If there's no "Good" predicted in the ground description (likely as you've said Ray), Sharjah's chance is totally gone & he's coming off a 50/50 hit and miss season as it is. That leaves him with nothing in a race where he could run "the best mare Willie's ever had" & potentially land 250k in prize money as opposed to 70k in the Mares. Yes, her best trip maybe over further but she might not need to run at her best trip to beat this year's renewal...given the way the weather's looking & the owner's previous form, Q's bet @ 200/1 on the exchange on Benie doesn't look too bad... would be a huge shake up in market if supplemented & IMO would go off fav. Thinking about it too, I'm not sure many would finish ahead of her in Soft ground either.

[SuperTiger]

The more it's looking like Soft, the more I think "Switch Switchy" will be inclined to run Benie here. If there's no "Good" predicted in the ground description (likely as you've said Ray), Sharjah's chance is totally gone & he's coming off a 50/50 hit and miss season as it is. That leaves him with nothing in a race where he could run "the best mare Willie's ever had" & potentially land 250k in prize money as opposed to 70k in the Mares. Yes, her best trip maybe over further but she might not need to run at her best trip to beat this year's renewal...given the way the weather's looking & the owner's previous form, Q's bet @ 200/1 on the exchange on Benie doesn't look too bad... would be a huge shake up in market if supplemented & IMO would go off fav. Thinking about it too, I'm not sure many would finish ahead of her in Soft ground either.

He's got Cilaos Emery who's been supplemented

[MadeinJapan]

He's got Cilaos Emery who's been supplemented

Mullins has yes, Rich Ricci I was referring to as not having a runner.