Triumph Hurdle 2020

[Pendil]

Wasn't first time today Pendil, he wore one at Auteuil too. So two terrible runs without one, and two wins with one! Fair to say its helping...

Racing Post has him as t1 for todays race and it doesn't show having a tongue tie in his French win. Maybe they don't have to declare them there

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Just have a feeling he may get a mark that tempts them down the Fred Winter route

[Can't Catch Me]

Racing Post has him as t1 for todays race and it doesn't show having a tongue tie in his French win. Maybe they don't have to declare them there

Paul Ferguson tweeted before to say contrary to what it showed in the RP, he had worn one at Auteuil? Not sure how he knows, but he's normally spot on!

[Can't Catch Me]

Just have a feeling he may get a mark that tempts them down the Fred Winter route

Totally agree. It has the hallmarks of a plan to me. Give him a course run without the tongue tie, (horse drifted like a barge on the day) then find a softish race for him to win well and get a fair mark.

My worry is that Im not as confident as HF he will get a mark of 135-138.... 140 wouldn't surprise me.

[jack1092]

Paul Ferguson tweeted before to say contrary to what it showed in the RP, he had worn one at Auteuil? Not sure how he knows, but he's normally spot on!

Rhys Williams regularly corrects them + did so again today with MP.

[Saxon Warrior]

Totally agree. It has the hallmarks of a plan to me. Give him a course run without the tongue tie, (horse drifted like a barge on the day) then find a softish race for him to win well and get a fair mark.

My worry is that Im not as confident as HF he will get a mark of 135-138.... 140 wouldn't surprise me.

If MP got 140, it would be 1lb higher than Band of Outlaws, that’s all. I’m sure they if they got 140 or less then the Boodles would stay on the agenda, pending a decision on whether to run again in graded company and see if they had a serious Triumph horse, or leave him for the Boodles. Tuesdays mark will tell us if there are two options or one at Cheltenham.

[Pendil]

Thanks CCM and Jack for that correction in relation to MP tongue tie in France

[robith]

Well lads, Mick Pastor has run at Cheltenham, and as we all know no winner of the Fred Winter has ever run at the course before, so I do believe that conclusively rules him out

[Can't Catch Me]

Well lads, Mick Pastor has run at Cheltenham, and as we all know no winner of the Fred Winter has ever run at the course before, so I do believe that conclusively rules him out

[Can't Catch Me]

If MP got 140, it would be 1lb higher than Band of Outlaws, that’s all. I’m sure they if they got 140 or less then the Boodles would stay on the agenda, pending a decision on whether to run again in graded company and see if they had a serious Triumph horse, or leave him for the Boodles. Tuesdays mark will tell us if there are two options or one at Cheltenham.

I take your point HF. But Band of Outlaws was a bit of an anomaly really. No horse rated higher than 134 had ever won the race before he did, all were rated 128-134. So I think it would be dangerous to assume because he did it, Mick Pastor can, that's all.

Of course the race could be changing to suit classier sorts running off higher marks, but a bit early to be confident!

[JackieMoon33]

I take your point HF. But Band of Outlaws was a bit of an anomaly really. No horse rated higher than 134 had ever won the race before he did, all were rated 128-134. So I think it would be dangerous to assume because he did it, Mick Pastor can, that's all.

Of course the race could be changing to suit classier sorts running off higher marks, but a bit early to be confident!

You need to be Triumph hurdle quality to win off a high mark in the Boodles / Fred Winter. As the Triumph is potentially weaker than other years, Mick might be good enough to be competitive at the higher grade. I think the combo of trainer and owners is misleading in terms of the handicap route. Most of Nicholls plots are often seen very late or even run off a UK mark based on French form only.

[Pendil]

If MP got 140, it would be 1lb higher than Band of Outlaws, that’s all. I’m sure they if they got 140 or less then the Boodles would stay on the agenda, pending a decision on whether to run again in graded company and see if they had a serious Triumph horse, or leave him for the Boodles. Tuesdays mark will tell us if there are two options or one at Cheltenham.

It's worth noting that MP finished 3l ahead of Prefontaine in the Cheltenham race so was on a potential mark of 131 prior to today. So he won by a further 3 1/2l and goes up to 135. Then we have the unknown for the handicappers imagination of how much more did he have in hand. My guess similar to yours is drop Prefontaine 2lb to 126 and give MP 136-138.
Looked at the Triumph possible entries per RP and JP owns 8 of them. The only potential Challenger to win the Triumph of his horses is MP in my opinion.
More interesting from the Boodles point of view is Cerberus. He ran in the Finale beaten 9l by Allmankind. The handicapper (English) assessed Cerberus on 141. On his reassessment of Allmankind and the 3rd Nordano I cant see how he can give Cerberus other tan 135. The horse ran a different race didn't try from the front and Power said after he will be better on better ground. I cant find any quotes so maybe you could try get him priced up for the Boodles.

I have put a small saver with Lads on MP @ 28/1 for The Triumph. But that is only backup to my top ante post hope of Aspire Tower

[Big Chac]

Any reason why rayapour has drifted to 40/1 and suspended with him on bet365?....

[SamuelP]

Any reason why rayapour has drifted to 40/1 and suspended with him on bet365?....

Because Mick Pastor was that good

[Lobos]

Any reason why rayapour has drifted to 40/1 and suspended with him on bet365?....

Flat campaign maybe??