The Favourites Bin

[charlie]

It didn't hinder Sprinter Sacre either.

The Kempton thing surely can't apply to horse that have already shown their class at Cheltenham, and that they are likely to be head and shoulders above the opposition. I can understand putting an asterisk against Kempton form in other circumstances, given the differences in track layouts.

Very fair counter. Also fair to say Shishkin beat F all last year before winning the supreme so lack of competition prior to an Arkle may be a case of deja vu

[Kevloaf]

Well at current prices - all 28 for the bin would probably work out alright?
Let's see in March how many of the ante post favs from 3/12/2020 win.

Coral Cup and Boodles I can't find prices for..... so 26......


Supreme - Ballyadam (8/1) - Alright winner of the only grade 1 novice hurdle so far. Favourite by default? I'll be shocked if he's still favourite by NYD.

Arkle - Shishkin (6/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Ultima - Phoenix way (20/1) - that's with WH. Entered over 2m this weekend, does look like he's being plotted, as he's a 3m1f winner over hurdles. That's it though, that's the whole case that can be made, way too much luck needed, the target is far from certain. Too easy to pick holes in (which it should be at 1/20)

Champion Hurdle - Epatante (7/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Mares Hurdle - Honeysucke (3/1) - Connections clearly stating that she may run in the CH, should be enough to put anyone off backing her at this price. New contender in Concertista and perhaps an old rival in BDD means she's far from bomb proof at this stage.

NH Chase - Galvin (6/1) - I actually think he'll go off shorter than this, if turning up, however there will also be two other single figured priced horses in the market (Mullins/O'Connor) so you can make a case to lay him, as he's good but not unbeatable.

Ballymore - Appreciate It (10/1) - Priced on reputation rather than actual form in the book (I do actually really like him though)

RSA - Monkfish (7/2) - I was blown away with his chase debut as I said at the time, however, his hurdles form hardly had him head and shoulders the best staying novice chaser. He's clearly going to be a player if he gets there already on what we've seen but the RSA has loads of exciting contenders yet to be played. Like him, but easy to bin at the price.

QMCC - Chacun Pour Soi (9/2) - Favourite without having the best form or being highest rated and some sound-ness doubts.

Cross Country - Easysland (9/4) - Got beat over C&D last time in a handicap, too much made of the weights. Jockey question mark and a race that is unpredictable.

Bumper - Sir Gerhard (4/1) - Stupidly short for the Champion Bumper. Owner/Trainer combo dictating this. Was always going to be a horse the bookies would see cash for, price driven. This is a horse the bookies could clip, and they'd see even more money for it as everyone convinced themselves he must be the next EA. (Hope he is) haha

Marsh - Envoi Allen (7/5) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Pertemps - Tower Bridge (12/1) - This short because he was the first JP horse to qualify, and the legendary Upping The Ante boys picked him.

Ryanair - Imperial Aura (7/1) - Others have summed this one up nicely already, likeable horse but easy to find alternatives at bigger prices so he's a poor favourite.

Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill (5/1) - Over reaction to beating a below his best Paisley Park and a non-staying McFabulous? Trainer not one that'd fill you with confidence that he can produce on the big day anymore (bit harsh?) Irish may have some contenders? - Not the easiest to bash to be fair.

Plate - Greanateen (20/1) - 2nd favourite for the Tingle Creek this weekend. Not unfeasible he isn't G1 class, they go for a handicap and he steps up in trip, but 20/1 now for that is bonkers. Bin.

Grand Annual - Greanateen (16/1) - As above, without the step up in trip bit. Unlikely to be 'well in' as he'll be running on merit this weekend?

Mares Novice Hurdle - Shewearsitwell (5/1) - Has had a 'minor setback', missing an engagement not ideal, time boys have gone nuts for her, plenty of fasle dawns when that happens and Willie may have better in his stable. He usually scatter guns the race and has had big priced winners too, as well as winning favs. On a numbers game, she's a bin.

Kim Muir - Glenloe (25/1) - Not mentioned in the stable tours? Bin.

Triumph - Zanahiyir (5/1) - Easy to bin at single figures for the Triumph in Dec. The market only had 3 horses less than 20/1, all trained by Gordon, and I'm not even convinced he's the best of them, let alone the other horses that'll enter this market. Terrible ante post price even if he wins it. Bin.

County Hurdle - Main Fact (20/1) - Is trained by David Pipe. Bin.

Albert Bartlett - Holymacapony (18/1) - Debut was nice enough, but definitely favourite because of connections previous horses. Not a market that looks like it's formed yet so not hard to imagine a winner lurking away from the aforementioned.

Gold Cup - Al Boum Photo (6/1) - Is this relatively unpopular horse going to become a 3-time Gold Cup winner? 6/1 to become level with ARKLE, COTTAGE RAKE and BEST MATE for Gold Cup wins, leaving only GOLDEN MILLER with more? Bin, he surely can't join that list.

Mares Chase - Benie Des Dieux (6/1) - Definitely not running this half of the season, favourite based on stable tour comments and a bookmaker move. Far from certain to turn up. Race conditions unknown.

Foxhunters - Billaway (7/1) - Favourite despite being beaten easily, and fairly (for the second time that season)... by the 2nd fav. Favourite because of Mullins, who has never won the race.

Martin Pipe - Wide Receiver (16/1) - Not certain to run, backing the favourite ante post in Dec for the Martin Pipe is so obvious to bin.




Bin 'em all.



I actually hope a few of them win - but it'll be interesting to see how the SP's and these prices compare, and how the +/- level stakes would play out for both.

[Pendil]

I think the Feltham/Kauto Star fails to find RSA winners

[Spectre]

County Hurdle - Main Fact - is trained by David Pipe. Bin.

Love it!

[Spectre]

Great idea for a thread by the way Charlie.

[robith]

I think the Feltham/Kauto Star fails to find RSA winners

Broadly true, though a trend that is rather helped by Might Bite falling when 9000 miles clear!

[Pendil]

Broadly true, though a trend that is rather helped by Might Bite falling when 9000 miles clear!

yep was expecting that one and he nearly threw away the RSA after beating the time to the last fence vs that years King George

[nortonscoin200]

I know it must look like i am Billaway #1 fan now(i'm really not) but could you elaborate on why you think he looked nowhere near good enough? I thought he travelled better than anything when coming to the turn that day, best horse won i'm not disputing that but struggle to see the anywhere near good enough angle?

Hi Outlaw, Perhaps I'm being a little harsh.

I backed Billaway for the Foxhunters in March and watched the race at the track.

My feeling was that he was never really in the race. He couldn't go the pace and his jumping was sticky which meant he was always struggling to get involved. I don't think it was the case that Patrick wanted to hold him up that far back.

The jockey did very well to finish as close as he did - Patrick was rousting him up going to the fourth last but Billaway was certainly doing his best work at the finish.

Maybe he will improve and you never know how high the standard will be in this race. He's obvious in with a decent shout but not at 7-1. I don't feel Billaway is as good as the likes of Salsify and Tammy's Hill who were available at double figure odds this far out before they won the race.

[Ray]

The ammount of people on here who dont like having a go on the triumph so early im suprised more havent put him up as a dodgy favourite

[EnvoyAllen]

I'm in a minority on this one, but I think Shishkin is a very poor price. There is just nothing to justify him being 6/4 after ONE novice run where he has essentially beaten nothing. I still think he will benefit from a step up in trip.

He is shorter than Epatante who is the reigning champ in the Champion Hurdle and being talked about in a similar vein to Envoi Allen. He just isn't comparable with that horse yet for me. There are plenty of potentially exciting 2m chasers in this division yet to stake a real claim.

Isn’t Shishkin (regardless of whatever his current price is) the “reigning champ in the Supreme Novices Hurdle” and “being talked about in a similar vein to Altior”.

Surely that’s as comparable as you could ever likely be on form with Epatante, relevant as a horse that’s a year younger??

[nortonscoin200]

Well at current prices - all 28 for the bin would probably work out alright?
Let's see in March how many of the ante post favs from 3/12/2020 win.

Coral Cup and Boodles I can't find prices for..... so 26......


Supreme - Ballyadam (8/1) - Alright winner of the only grade 1 novice hurdle so far. Favourite by default? I'll be shocked if he's still favourite by NYD.

Arkle - Shishkin (6/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Ultima - Phoenix way (20/1) - that's with WH. Entered over 2m this weekend, does look like he's being plotted, as he's a 3m1f winner over hurdles. That's it though, that's the whole case that can be made, way too much luck needed, the target is far from certain. Too easy to pick holes in (which it should be at 1/20)

Champion Hurdle - Epatante (7/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Mares Hurdle - Honeysucke (3/1) - Connections clearly stating that she may run in the CH, should be enough to put anyone off backing her at this price. New contender in Concertista and perhaps an old rival in BDD means she's far from bomb proof at this stage.

NH Chase - Galvin (6/1) - I actually think he'll go off shorter than this, if turning up, however there will also be two other single figured priced horses in the market (Mullins/O'Connor) so you can make a case to lay him, as he's good but not unbeatable.

Ballymore - Appreciate It (10/1) - Priced on reputation rather than actual form in the book (I do actually really like him though)

RSA - Monkfish (7/2) - I was blown away with his chase debut as I said at the time, however, his hurdles form hardly had him head and shoulders the best staying novice chaser. He's clearly going to be a player if he gets there already on what we've seen but the RSA has loads of exciting contenders yet to be played. Like him, but easy to bin at the price.

QMCC - Chacun Pour Soi (9/2) - Favourite without having the best form or being highest rated and some sound-ness doubts.

Cross Country - Easysland (9/4) - Got beat over C&D last time in a handicap, too much made of the weights. Jockey question mark and a race that is unpredictable.

Bumper - Sir Gerhard (4/1) - Stupidly short for the Champion Bumper. Owner/Trainer combo dictating this. Was always going to be a horse the bookies would see cash for, price driven. This is a horse the bookies could clip, and they'd see even more money for it as everyone convinced themselves he must be the next EA. (Hope he is) haha

Marsh - Envoi Allen (7/5) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Pertemps - Tower Bridge (12/1) - This short because he was the first JP horse to qualify, and the legendary Upping The Ante boys picked him.

Ryanair - Imperial Aura (7/1) - Others have summed this one up nicely already, likeable horse but easy to find alternatives at bigger prices so he's a poor favourite.

Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill (5/1) - Over reaction to beating a below his best Paisley Park and a non-staying McFabulous? Trainer not one that'd fill you with confidence that he can produce on the big day anymore (bit harsh?) Irish may have some contenders? - Not the easiest to bash to be fair.

Plate - Greanateen (20/1) - 2nd favourite for the Tingle Creek this weekend. Not unfeasible he isn't G1 class, they go for a handicap and he steps up in trip, but 20/1 now for that is bonkers. Bin.

Grand Annual - Greanateen (16/1) - As above, without the step up in trip bit. Unlikely to be 'well in' as he'll be running on merit this weekend?

Mares Novice Hurdle - Shewearsitwell (5/1) - Has had a 'minor setback', missing an engagement not ideal, time boys have gone nuts for her, plenty of fasle dawns when that happens and Willie may have better in his stable. He usually scatter guns the race and has had big priced winners too, as well as winning favs. On a numbers game, she's a bin.

Kim Muir - Glenloe (25/1) - Not mentioned in the stable tours? Bin.

Triumph - Zanahiyir (5/1) - Easy to bin at single figures for the Triumph in Dec. The market only had 3 horses less than 20/1, all trained by Gordon, and I'm not even convinced he's the best of them, let alone the other horses that'll enter this market. Terrible ante post price even if he wins it. Bin.

County Hurdle - Main Fact (20/1) - Is trained by David Pipe. Bin.

Albert Bartlett - Holymacapony (18/1) - Debut was nice enough, but definitely favourite because of connections previous horses. Not a market that looks like it's formed yet so not hard to imagine a winner lurking away from the aforementioned.

Gold Cup - Al Boum Photo (6/1) - Is this relatively unpopular horse going to become a 3-time Gold Cup winner? 6/1 to become level with ARKLE, COTTAGE RAKE and BEST MATE for Gold Cup wins, leaving only GOLDEN MILLER with more? Bin, he surely can't join that list.

Mares Chase - Benie Des Dieux (6/1) - Definitely not running this half of the season, favourite based on stable tour comments and a bookmaker move. Far from certain to turn up. Race conditions unknown.

Foxhunters - Billaway (7/1) - Favourite despite being beaten easily, and fairly (for the second time that season)... by the 2nd fav. Favourite because of Mullins, who has never won the race.

Martin Pipe - Wide Receiver (16/1) - Not certain to run, backing the favourite ante post in Dec for the Martin Pipe is so obvious to bin.




Bin 'em all.



I actually hope a few of them win - but it'll be interesting to see how the SP's and these prices compare, and how the +/- level stakes would play out for both.

Interesting that 18 of the 26 favourites at present are trained in Ireland - the Emerald Isle's stranglehold on Cheltenham looks set to continue next March.

Eight are trained by Willie and six by Gordon.

So although many of these won't be winning you wouldn't want to put your shirt on Willie and Gordon failing to mop up half the 28 races between them.

That is quite a thought - you need look no further than Willie and Gordon for half the winners at Cheltenham next March.

Do our ante-post bets reflect this? It's almost reached the point where I ignore most of the racing in England and nearly all the major stables apart from Henderson.

And he won't get anywhere near Willie and Gordon's tally next year.

They saddled seven apiece this year on case anyone's forgotten.

[kinloch brae]

Interesting that 18 of the 26 favourites at present are trained in Ireland - the Emerald Isle's stranglehold on Cheltenham looks set to continue next March.

Eight are trained by Willie and six by Gordon.

So although many of these won't be winning you wouldn't want to put your shirt on Willie and Gordon failing to mop up half the 28 races between them.

That is quite a thought - you need look no further than Willie and Gordon for half the winners at Cheltenham next March.

Do our ante-post bets reflect this? It's almost reached the point where I ignore most of the racing in England and nearly all the major stables apart from Henderson.

And he won't get anywhere near Willie and Gordon's tally next year.

They saddled seven apiece this year on case anyone's forgotten.

That's the problem though isn't it? Everyone believes that Elliott and Mullins will mop up every year, punters fall over themselves to back anything from those stables and bookmakers are increasingly defensive. In some respects the stable has become more important than the individual horses. If it goes pear-shaped, even for one year, there are going to be an awful lot of out of pocket punters. Unfortunately, the increasing dominance of just three stables is making the Flat look more appealing. At least the likes of O'Brien and Gosden don't monopolise every race at Royal Ascot.

[charlie]

Well at current prices - all 28 for the bin would probably work out alright?
Let's see in March how many of the ante post favs from 3/12/2020 win.

Coral Cup and Boodles I can't find prices for..... so 26......


Supreme - Ballyadam (8/1) - Alright winner of the only grade 1 novice hurdle so far. Favourite by default? I'll be shocked if he's still favourite by NYD.

Arkle - Shishkin (6/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Ultima - Phoenix way (20/1) - that's with WH. Entered over 2m this weekend, does look like he's being plotted, as he's a 3m1f winner over hurdles. That's it though, that's the whole case that can be made, way too much luck needed, the target is far from certain. Too easy to pick holes in (which it should be at 1/20)

Champion Hurdle - Epatante (7/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Mares Hurdle - Honeysucke (3/1) - Connections clearly stating that she may run in the CH, should be enough to put anyone off backing her at this price. New contender in Concertista and perhaps an old rival in BDD means she's far from bomb proof at this stage.

NH Chase - Galvin (6/1) - I actually think he'll go off shorter than this, if turning up, however there will also be two other single figured priced horses in the market (Mullins/O'Connor) so you can make a case to lay him, as he's good but not unbeatable.

Ballymore - Appreciate It (10/1) - Priced on reputation rather than actual form in the book (I do actually really like him though)

RSA - Monkfish (7/2) - I was blown away with his chase debut as I said at the time, however, his hurdles form hardly had him head and shoulders the best staying novice chaser. He's clearly going to be a player if he gets there already on what we've seen but the RSA has loads of exciting contenders yet to be played. Like him, but easy to bin at the price.

QMCC - Chacun Pour Soi (9/2) - Favourite without having the best form or being highest rated and some sound-ness doubts.

Cross Country - Easysland (9/4) - Got beat over C&D last time in a handicap, too much made of the weights. Jockey question mark and a race that is unpredictable.

Bumper - Sir Gerhard (4/1) - Stupidly short for the Champion Bumper. Owner/Trainer combo dictating this. Was always going to be a horse the bookies would see cash for, price driven. This is a horse the bookies could clip, and they'd see even more money for it as everyone convinced themselves he must be the next EA. (Hope he is) haha

Marsh - Envoi Allen (7/5) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Pertemps - Tower Bridge (12/1) - This short because he was the first JP horse to qualify, and the legendary Upping The Ante boys picked him.

Ryanair - Imperial Aura (7/1) - Others have summed this one up nicely already, likeable horse but easy to find alternatives at bigger prices so he's a poor favourite.

Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill (5/1) - Over reaction to beating a below his best Paisley Park and a non-staying McFabulous? Trainer not one that'd fill you with confidence that he can produce on the big day anymore (bit harsh?) Irish may have some contenders? - Not the easiest to bash to be fair.

Plate - Greanateen (20/1) - 2nd favourite for the Tingle Creek this weekend. Not unfeasible he isn't G1 class, they go for a handicap and he steps up in trip, but 20/1 now for that is bonkers. Bin.

Grand Annual - Greanateen (16/1) - As above, without the step up in trip bit. Unlikely to be 'well in' as he'll be running on merit this weekend?

Mares Novice Hurdle - Shewearsitwell (5/1) - Has had a 'minor setback', missing an engagement not ideal, time boys have gone nuts for her, plenty of fasle dawns when that happens and Willie may have better in his stable. He usually scatter guns the race and has had big priced winners too, as well as winning favs. On a numbers game, she's a bin.

Kim Muir - Glenloe (25/1) - Not mentioned in the stable tours? Bin.

Triumph - Zanahiyir (5/1) - Easy to bin at single figures for the Triumph in Dec. The market only had 3 horses less than 20/1, all trained by Gordon, and I'm not even convinced he's the best of them, let alone the other horses that'll enter this market. Terrible ante post price even if he wins it. Bin.

County Hurdle - Main Fact (20/1) - Is trained by David Pipe. Bin.

Albert Bartlett - Holymacapony (18/1) - Debut was nice enough, but definitely favourite because of connections previous horses. Not a market that looks like it's formed yet so not hard to imagine a winner lurking away from the aforementioned.

Gold Cup - Al Boum Photo (6/1) - Is this relatively unpopular horse going to become a 3-time Gold Cup winner? 6/1 to become level with ARKLE, COTTAGE RAKE and BEST MATE for Gold Cup wins, leaving only GOLDEN MILLER with more? Bin, he surely can't join that list.

Mares Chase - Benie Des Dieux (6/1) - Definitely not running this half of the season, favourite based on stable tour comments and a bookmaker move. Far from certain to turn up. Race conditions unknown.

Foxhunters - Billaway (7/1) - Favourite despite being beaten easily, and fairly (for the second time that season)... by the 2nd fav. Favourite because of Mullins, who has never won the race.

Martin Pipe - Wide Receiver (16/1) - Not certain to run, backing the favourite ante post in Dec for the Martin Pipe is so obvious to bin.


Bin 'em all.

I actually hope a few of them win - but it'll be interesting to see how the SP's and these prices compare, and how the +/- level stakes would play out for both.

What a fantastic contribution Kev - so much so I've quoted the lot (and ironically annoyed you at the same time )

[Middle_Of_March]

Imperial Aura. In what world is he shorter than a 7 time Grade 1 winner, who’s the defending champion and being aimed at the race? Absolutely mental!

[Kevloaf]

Imperial Aura. In what world is he shorter than a 7 time Grade 1 winner, who’s the defending champion and being aimed at the race? Absolutely mental!

People had made that case about him before Min added another G1 at the weekend, so it does make it even stranger now.


Still, Imperial Aura is a grower...I do like his chances (not that he's a good bet now)....