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We have a banker’s thread and we naturally spend lots of time talking about favourites on individual threads, but I think we need a place to properly bash current favourites and put them in the proverbial ‘bin’. It can sometimes be daunting (present company excluded 
) to fly in the face of post-race enthusiasm from seemingly all, or take a different view to most, or just oppose a seriously well fancied favourite on the main forum. So, I thought we needed a thread where people are encouraged to pick holes in current short priced favourites, bash them mercilessly if that’s your vibe, and tell everyone else:
Why you oppose the current fav…..
Why the bookies are criminal offering that price……
Why there is value left in behind a false fav……
Why we haven’t seen the best of the division yet……
Why you wouldn’t back the current fav with monopoly money….
Why historically the stats go against it……
Why they can’t win……
Or whatever reason you think supports your opinion…..
In order to draw meaningful benefit from a thread like this, the ‘why’ is really important E.g., value, ability, competition, target, or a combination of the lot. Pick thin holes! Split hairs! As far as I’m concerned anything at 6/4 now is there to be shot at (barring maybe Envoi Allen – but fu*k it, have a go, that’s what this thread is for).
Opposing well fancied horses will no doubt evoke a strong defence from some, and that’s all part and parcel of a meaningful debate, but I encourage everyone to remember two things for this thread:
I’ll start and set the tone for this thread with two horses I know are very well fancied favourites, so this will be a punchy and quite tasty start…..
The first horse is Monkfish @ 3/1 for the RSA – he can go firmly go in the bin at that price (it’s simply a price thing for me). A schooling session over 2m5f vs 130’s horse’s in a normal time does not justify 3/1 favouritism for an RSA that looks pretty decent. Take nothing away from that chase debut because he was mightily impressive, but remove the RR colours and WPM and you have a horse that would comfortably be double the price any other year IMO. Can he win the RSA? Yes, of course he can and the army of people on ante-post should ignore what I’m saying because I’d love to be on at a bigger price. The AB form looks very good and this will be his target, but that does not justify his current price IMO. Monkfish, get in the favourites bin please.
Easysland @ 7/4 can also find the favourites bin. He won the trial last year well and then pissed up in March. The times for both those races were really very slow, and Tiger wasn’t anywhere near his best IMO, and the opposition on both occasions was plain. I am convinced he was ridden on trials day this year to win, and was backed from 5/4 into 8/11 as if defeat was unlikely. For me, Easysland is not a 167 horse. They all race carrying 11-4 in March so you can take or leave the next bit (but for me Easysland has either beat a Tiger Roll that ran to his rating in March and earnt an OR of 167, or he’s beaten a below par Tiger Roll and 167 is inflating his ability. He either runs to a rating of 167, concedes the weight and beats that lot or at least gets a lot closer, or 167 is an inflated rating which is why he couldn’t beat those horses carrying 11-8). He may have needed the run but wasn’t backed like it. So what wins, the honest answer is I don’t know, but I’d happily counter that by saying Easysland could easily beat himself, and seems to escape criticism on the number of mistakes he makes. He failed to complete 1/3 of his starts in France, was bloody lucky not to unseat in March, and made a fair few niggly mistakes on trials day. He’s ground dependent, has mistake’s in him, hasn’t beaten much, IMO disappointed on trials day IF you believe his real rating – so all that @ 7/4 – no thank you. Easysland, get in the favourites bin please.
) to fly in the face of post-race enthusiasm from seemingly all, or take a different view to most, or just oppose a seriously well fancied favourite on the main forum. So, I thought we needed a thread where people are encouraged to pick holes in current short priced favourites, bash them mercilessly if that’s your vibe, and tell everyone else: Why you oppose the current fav…..
Why the bookies are criminal offering that price……
Why there is value left in behind a false fav……
Why we haven’t seen the best of the division yet……
Why you wouldn’t back the current fav with monopoly money….
Why historically the stats go against it……
Why they can’t win……
Or whatever reason you think supports your opinion…..
In order to draw meaningful benefit from a thread like this, the ‘why’ is really important E.g., value, ability, competition, target, or a combination of the lot. Pick thin holes! Split hairs! As far as I’m concerned anything at 6/4 now is there to be shot at (barring maybe Envoi Allen – but fu*k it, have a go, that’s what this thread is for).
Opposing well fancied horses will no doubt evoke a strong defence from some, and that’s all part and parcel of a meaningful debate, but I encourage everyone to remember two things for this thread:
- We are NOT talking about ante post prices. If you have Shishkin @ 6/1 for the Arkle then I tip my hat to you and wish you the very best of luck – this is about reasons to oppose current shorties, not defending ante-post positions.
- A very gentle reminder (cause I forget too) that odds on/bomb proof/unbeatable/weapons etc, get turned over at Cheltenham, all the time – we must not lose sight of that (4 of the 5 ‘bankers’ lost last year for example)
I’ll start and set the tone for this thread with two horses I know are very well fancied favourites, so this will be a punchy and quite tasty start…..
The first horse is Monkfish @ 3/1 for the RSA – he can go firmly go in the bin at that price (it’s simply a price thing for me). A schooling session over 2m5f vs 130’s horse’s in a normal time does not justify 3/1 favouritism for an RSA that looks pretty decent. Take nothing away from that chase debut because he was mightily impressive, but remove the RR colours and WPM and you have a horse that would comfortably be double the price any other year IMO. Can he win the RSA? Yes, of course he can and the army of people on ante-post should ignore what I’m saying because I’d love to be on at a bigger price. The AB form looks very good and this will be his target, but that does not justify his current price IMO. Monkfish, get in the favourites bin please.
Easysland @ 7/4 can also find the favourites bin. He won the trial last year well and then pissed up in March. The times for both those races were really very slow, and Tiger wasn’t anywhere near his best IMO, and the opposition on both occasions was plain. I am convinced he was ridden on trials day this year to win, and was backed from 5/4 into 8/11 as if defeat was unlikely. For me, Easysland is not a 167 horse. They all race carrying 11-4 in March so you can take or leave the next bit (but for me Easysland has either beat a Tiger Roll that ran to his rating in March and earnt an OR of 167, or he’s beaten a below par Tiger Roll and 167 is inflating his ability. He either runs to a rating of 167, concedes the weight and beats that lot or at least gets a lot closer, or 167 is an inflated rating which is why he couldn’t beat those horses carrying 11-8). He may have needed the run but wasn’t backed like it. So what wins, the honest answer is I don’t know, but I’d happily counter that by saying Easysland could easily beat himself, and seems to escape criticism on the number of mistakes he makes. He failed to complete 1/3 of his starts in France, was bloody lucky not to unseat in March, and made a fair few niggly mistakes on trials day. He’s ground dependent, has mistake’s in him, hasn’t beaten much, IMO disappointed on trials day IF you believe his real rating – so all that @ 7/4 – no thank you. Easysland, get in the favourites bin please.
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