Arkle - 2021

[Hardy Eustace]

Does Shiskin's performance yesterday change how people will be approaching this race antepost?

I am thinking this one through.

I have thought about backing unexcepted but wanted to see him put 2 good runs together before doing so. I am now having second thoughts as if he does put 2 races together he won't be an EW price and even if he does hose up next time he's going to struggle to beat Shishkin on the limited evidence we saw yesterday (and the more substantial hurdles evidence of last season).

I have also got to remind myself to try not to get too excited after all he beat a blatant non-trier even if he couldn't have done it any easier.

It is typically a nice race to build a book in - is that still people's plans? Or are you happy to just hold your current position on Shiskin and put the race to bed for the time being?

[Ballyfitz]

I’m committed to building a book in the race as I have already got the vast majority of the market principles covered - if i was starting from fresh at this point I would have a different approach though!

[Lobos]

Does Shiskin's performance yesterday change how people will be approaching this race antepost?

I am thinking this one through.

I have thought about backing unexcepted but wanted to see him put 2 good runs together before doing so. I am now having second thoughts as if he does put 2 races together he won't be an EW price and even if he does hose up next time he's going to struggle to beat Shishkin on the limited evidence we saw yesterday (and the more substantial hurdles evidence of last season).

I have also got to remind myself to try not to get too excited after all he beat a blatant non-trier even if he couldn't have done it any easier.

It is typically a nice race to build a book in - is that still people's plans? Or are you happy to just hold your current position on Shiskin and put the race to bed for the time being?

I certainly won't be having another bet on any other horses in the race so long as Shishkin is in there. I'll just add to some of the doubles I have with him.

[Eggs]

.....I’ll just hold my position for the time being but will ultimately give my book a haircut rather than build on it.

Hopefully, Shishkin makes it here fit and well, I have it covered in roll-ups and a large number of RaBs. I have the likes of Unexcepted in my book thanks to the 150-1 ‘win today & festival offer’ when it last run, can’t cash that in but more than happy to have that as it was only a small stake wager.

I have a fair bit rolled up on Elexir D’ainay, I’ll probably cash some or all of that at some point. Klassical Dream & Embittered for cash-out when time is right.

[Kevloaf]

Does Shiskin's performance yesterday change how people will be approaching this race antepost?

I am thinking this one through.

I have thought about backing unexcepted but wanted to see him put 2 good runs together before doing so. I am now having second thoughts as if he does put 2 races together he won't be an EW price and even if he does hose up next time he's going to struggle to beat Shishkin on the limited evidence we saw yesterday (and the more substantial hurdles evidence of last season).

I have also got to remind myself to try not to get too excited after all he beat a blatant non-trier even if he couldn't have done it any easier.

It is typically a nice race to build a book in - is that still people's plans? Or are you happy to just hold your current position on Shiskin and put the race to bed for the time being?

Yeah, will definitely be looking to build a book.

With a shorty like this, it can mean other horses are bigger than they should be as they're rated and dismissed compared to the favourite.

If the worst happens and Shishkin got injured, you'd have the race by the absolute balls which would be decent compensation.

If Shishkin doesn't get injured (touch wood), and we get to NRNB, you will likely be in a position to trade out of any of the horses you're on that you no longer liked as they'd have tightened and certainly on the day the chances are you can get a 100% book without too much effort.


Effort might be the wrong word, it's a lot of effort compared to just backing 1 horse and leaving it obviously - Cash out important too. Wouldn't attempt the book without it. Or a large sum in the exchanges. I'm lucky my best mate lends me a few grand each Feb that I do this with.




I'm still aiming to have a book.... just because Shishkin looked really good doesn't mean other horses aren't value.... and there are 3 places that pay out

[Viking Flagship]

My plan is to try and end up with the 2nd/3rd favourites backed at big prices each way. With Shishkin on the scene this race is even more likely than ever to have a small field so if you can find the candidates that won't shirk him (which to me looks like concentrating on finding the Irish contingent), then there are some potentially juicy EW prospects. Yes you might ultimately be fighting for 2nd/3rd but if you can fill both those places at 25/1+ then it's not too shabby. And if anything happens to Shishkin you're sitting pretty.

[Kevloaf]

My plan is to try and end up with the 2nd/3rd favourites backed at big prices each way. With Shishkin on the scene this race is even more likely than ever to have a small field so if you can find the candidates that won't shirk him (which to me looks like concentrating on finding the Irish contingent), then there are some potentially juicy EW prospects. Yes you might ultimately be fighting for 2nd/3rd but if you can fill both those places at 25/1+ then it's not too shabby. And if anything happens to Shishkin you're sitting pretty.

Yeah, absolutely.



We're likely to get smallish fields in the Arkle and Marsh - a lot of trainers waffling on about avoiding one horse...load of bollocks, should have their licences revoked. No wonder these small trainers don't get better horses with that kind of attitude


They're lucky they have 4 novice chases to chose from, little worms.

[Istabraq]

They're lucky they have 4 novice chases to chose from, little worms.

And the Plate, Grand Annual, Ultima, Kim Muir, curve balls everywhere in the modern day festival...

[Hardy Eustace]

Nice one chaps. I think that will be the way I play it, look to get value EW prices on horses I deem fit and duck the win only.

[Hardy Eustace]

And the Plate, Grand Annual, Ultima, Kim Muir, curve balls everywhere in the modern day festival...

This has crossed my mind too Ista, wonder how many Trainers will be running their horses throughout the winter with the handbrake on with a view to the plate or the GA rather than the marsh or the arkle! Quite possible it is more than normal.

[Kevloaf]

Nice one chaps. I think that will be the way I play it, look to get value EW prices on horses I deem fit and duck the win only.

It is a good question, obviously no right answer though.

I think I'm quite defensive in these situations, probably more than I should be. I reckon I'd make a profit from this race without backing another horse though as of right now.

[Spectre]

With trainers being creatures of habit.
Is it likely that if Shishkin goes the same path as Altior and wins his next 2 starts easily.

That he goes into open company as his prep for the 'Arkle'.

Altior went off @ 30/100 in the Game Spirit chase and beat Fox Norton, Dodgy Bullets and Traffic Fluide with ease.

There was talk of going for the Champion Chase after that, as he was given a 170 rating.

However, there was a certainty running in the Champion Chase called Douvan 2/9.

So Nicky went for the arkle, especially with his only real threat 'Min' being out injured.


Turned out the 2/9 shot got beat, and the 165 rated 10yr old Special Tiara won the champion chase by a head from Fox Norton !!

You'd think Henderson will remember this, and had it not been for Douvan he would surely have been seriously tempted.

So does a lot hinge on Altior's fitness and form, for a similar debate after Christmas ? & Chacun Por Soir a bit ?


Sprinter went for the game spirit as well so it's very likely this happens (running in the game spirit). I think Henderson had Finians Rainbow for the CC in Sprinters arkle year (which he won)

This also occurred to me. I suspect he may get an entry, and when he does the racing world will freak out.

It may actually be worth asking for a price with 365 with cashout if anyone was so minded.

[Kevloaf]

This also occurred to me. I suspect he may get an entry, and when he does the racing world will freak out.

It may actually be worth asking for a price with 365 with cashout if anyone was so minded.

He's ridiculously high profile so they'll be very hot on the cashout for that...

I'd love a NRNB price for him.... Sky RAB have done that once or twice, I remember getting one about Faugheen before NRNB was live....

The exchanges also might be worth getting him on...no doubt Q will snaffle the biggest price and then I can have the crumbs....

[Lobos]

He's ridiculously high profile so they'll be very hot on the cashout for that...

I'd love a NRNB price for him.... Sky RAB have done that once or twice, I remember getting one about Faugheen before NRNB was live....

The exchanges also might be worth getting him on...no doubt Q will snaffle the biggest price and then I can have the crumbs....

End this nonsense. We all know it won't happen. Henderson has had plenty big opportunities to do it in the past and hasn't. No need.

[Kevloaf]

End this nonsense. We all know it won't happen. Henderson has had plenty big opportunities to do it in the past and hasn't. No need.

You love an 'if' though... what 'if' he slaps Altior about on the gallops over 2 furlongs.... what if he works with Epatante as is better than her?!??!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!



If Shishkin runs in the QMCC it's 1.01 that you've backed him secretly at a massive price






It is unlikely, which is why I said I want a NRNB price. They may price it wrong and that's no risk for high reward.