Arkle - 2021

[charlie]

I'd say it was odds on he'll go off odds on if he wins his prep. Regardless of what happens elsewhere. Hendersons hype will make sure of that. He's 6/4 now !

See post #144

[Lobos]

I mean. I'm knit picking, but, he got considerably sloppy-ier at his jumping as it went on..

Wrong thread.

[Lobos]

See post #144

Soz Charlie, I should have ready on. You've taken enough punches for one day.

[EnvoyAllen]

Im in the 'impressed, but not impressed as almost everyone else' camp. Clearly it was a very good intro. His fencing was as good as almost any novice I've seen. But it was basically no race. The hatchet job on Mick Pastor was almost embarrassing! And despite pulling his head off for the whole race he was still only a handful of lengths behind coming off the final bend when Nico asked for a bit more.

I'm not trying to crab him but do think he looks short. I still wonder about his cruising speed and will be very interested to see him up against a real speedball who will go off at a breakneck pace and get him out of his comfort zone. Obviously the stiff finish at Chelts is perfect for him, but I don't think he will be able to lay up with very quick horses myself.

Eh?

“Wonder about his cruising speed?”

Did you watch the race today Mr Can’t Catch Me?

2 miles 2f today and his cruising speed was evident for all to see. It stood out as obvious as his quality of jumping. When Mr Henderson says ‘he’s very, very quick” (to quote) and Mr de Boinville said on ITV a few minutes after he won the Supreme “He’s got all the gears...........I’m lucky to ride on horses like him”, I tend to listen.

His cruising speed today in a race where he didn’t have to break sweat was I believe clearly evident.

[Quevega]

With trainers being creatures of habit.
Is it likely that if Shishkin goes the same path as Altior and wins his next 2 starts easily.

That he goes into open company as his prep for the 'Arkle'.

Altior went off @ 30/100 in the Game Spirit chase and beat Fox Norton, Dodgy Bullets and Traffic Fluide with ease.

There was talk of going for the Champion Chase after that, as he was given a 170 rating.

However, there was a certainty running in the Champion Chase called Douvan 2/9.

So Nicky went for the arkle, especially with his only real threat 'Min' being out injured.


Turned out the 2/9 shot got beat, and the 165 rated 10yr old Special Tiara won the champion chase by a head from Fox Norton !!

You'd think Henderson will remember this, and had it not been for Douvan he would surely have been seriously tempted.

So does a lot hinge on Altior's fitness and form, for a similar debate after Christmas ? & Chacun Por Soir a bit ?


Sprinter went for the game spirit as well so it's very likely this happens (running in the game spirit). I think Henderson had Finians Rainbow for the CC in Sprinters arkle year (which he won)

[Can't Catch Me]

Eh?

“Wonder about his cruising speed?”

Did you watch the race today Mr Can’t Catch Me?

2 miles 2f today and his cruising speed was evident for all to see. It stood out as obvious as his quality of jumping. When Mr Henderson says ‘he’s very, very quick” (to quote) and Mr de Boinville said on ITV a few minutes after he won the Supreme “He’s got all the gears...........I’m lucky to ride on horses like him”, I tend to listen.

His cruising speed today in a race where he didn’t have to break sweat was I believe clearly evident.

Ive watched it a few times EA. I can also completely understand why you've picked me up on that comment.

But I don't think we learnt anything about his cruising speed today myself. Running against a complete non trier who was being pulled back the whole way.

[Quevega]

Ive watched it a few times EA. I can also completely understand why you've picked me up on that comment.

But I don't think we learnt anything about his cruising speed today myself. Running against a complete non trier who was being pulled back the whole way.

Yep.
He was basically racing alone.
The time was decent but not earth shattering.

It makes me wonder how the RPR ratings work for these type of races as to give it 160 seems a little reputation based.
I doubt another horse doing that today (winning in same time by same distance and jumping well) would have got such a flattering rating.

Altior got his debut rating of 160 in the same race, when he faced just 1 other runner.

I don't disagree with the rating as much as the way it's been awarded. It doesn't appear to be too scientific and more of a 'knowing' guess.

i.e,
he won the supreme, so we know he's this good, and he looked really good, so it must have been good, even though there was no real yardstick to measure it with.

[Outlaw]

With trainers being creatures of habit.
Is it likely that if Shishkin goes the same path as Altior and wins his next 2 starts easily.

That he goes into open company as his prep for the 'Arkle'.

Altior went off @ 30/100 in the Game Spirit chase and beat Fox Norton, Dodgy Bullets and Traffic Fluide with ease.

There was talk of going for the Champion Chase after that, as he was given a 170 rating.

However, there was a certainty running in the Champion Chase called Douvan 2/9.

So Nicky went for the arkle, especially with his only real threat 'Min' being out injured.


Turned out the 2/9 shot got beat, and the 165 rated 10yr old Special Tiara won the champion chase by a head from Fox Norton !!

You'd think Henderson will remember this, and had it not been for Douvan he would surely have been seriously tempted.

So does a lot hinge on Altior's fitness and form, for a similar debate after Christmas ? & Chacun Por Soir a bit ?


Sprinter went for the game spirit as well so it's very likely this happens (running in the game spirit). I think Henderson had Finians Rainbow for the CC in Sprinters arkle year (which he won)

Thought similar myself but it's not like he's a fragile horse or will be 8/9 next year so just couldn't envisage a strong enough scenario.

[charlie]

Soz Charlie, I should have ready on. You've taken enough punches for one day.

Didn't know convo's about price counted as punches?

[Outlaw]

Just watched the Shishkin race - looked absolutely superb. Very excited now as have a 1400 point return coming from Shishkin/Envoi double. They have both made two of the best debuts I have seen in terms of jumping in the last 5 years. Footpad is the only I can remember being as good. Hopefully they stay sound. The chasing division, novices and open, is hugely exciting at the moment.

That's some return, some very hefty stake even if on straight after the festival i imagine?

[Quevega]

Thought similar myself but it's not like he's a fragile horse or will be 8/9 next year so just couldn't envisage a strong enough scenario.

Altior being retired, or injured would get this close I reckon.
He has nothing else.

[jono]

It'll never happen but The Game Spirit at Newbury in February should really be a match up between Altior and Shishkin if going by trainer habit.

Like mentioned, Henderson has been happy to send his top novice into open company there. The timing to the festival suits very well.
And since Altior took in the race as a novice, he's used the Newbury race in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

I imagine he'd want to run both their ideally, if looking at their paths to the festival in isolation.

[FinalFurlong91]

Shiskin is still very inexperienced so I doubt the champion chase would ever cross their mind

Because he fell so early in one of his runs hes only had 3 hurdles starts and 1 chase start

[charlie]

Ive watched it a few times EA. I can also completely understand why you've picked me up on that comment.

But I don't think we learnt anything about his cruising speed today myself. Running against a complete non trier who was being pulled back the whole way.

I think you deserve credit for making that comment tbf CCM. As it happens, I disagree with the comment re cruising speed, but meaningful conclusions come from constructive debate, and there is nothing constructive (or interesting for that matter) about everyone agreeing

[Can't Catch Me]

To add to my earlier post... He's a 3m winning pointer. Sholokhov wouldn't produce many crack 2 milers and most of his best progeny are stayers. I thought he ran like a horse that would benefit from a step up in trip in the Supreme. There is no doubt he's a very good horse, and could well be talented enough to win an Arkle. But I think his optimum trip will be further than 2m.

Imagine if we ever saw him v EA. That would be something.