2017 Champion Chase

[jono]

Betting ante post and getting the target wrong shouldn't and doesn't affect a performance though.

Fully agree. Losing money because the horse runs in a different race has no bearing on how good the horse is

[oceans]

though when the hype of Vautour was so high as to be compared with Faugheen or Kauto, you'd imagine such horse would take on small tasks of big the races not the weakest G1 races from the festival. And when he does take on the big tasks against the big boys, like the KG or Irish Champion Chase, you'd imagine he can overcome them, such was the hype surrounding his name. Winning Ryanairs and JLT's is good but not great and not comparable with the likes he was by many who're doing the same with Douvan.

[jono]

I just think Willie Mullins wants the most grade 1 and specifically now festival winners as possible. It's highly unlikely he'll ever allow something like a Kauto/Denman campaigning like Paul Nicols did.

Also the fact there is no 2m4 hurdle race at Cheltenham means it's a lot less likely that Mullins can switch trips for his hurdlers where as the 3 trip options over fences allows more flexibility and can mean he can switch targets for horses a lot more

I think it was quite a close call between whether Vautour or Faugheen stayed hurdling for the Champion Hurdle. If it had been Vautour we could very well be saying the exact same thing about Faugheen...

[Kevloaf]

You say Vautour is taking the easy option, but many could argue the intermediate trip is his best, which wouldn't be the horses fault. If the Ryanair trip allows him to perform his highest possible rating then why is that the easiest way out? That trip may end up being Douvans nest trip in time, but if he wins the Champion Chase this year, who is to say that that form is any better than the Ryanair. For starters, Douvan has the 11 year old Sprinter to beat, and then a load of novices he has already got the beating of. The Ryanair may well end up being a deeper race. I am playing devils advocate a little there... but surely that is food for thought.

Kauto Star was hyped and lost against Denman, Long Run, Imperial Commander, as well as falling in the top two mile chases at the festival too! He wasn't unbeaten, just like Vautour isn't. I personally don't think Vautour is close to Kauto but whenever people did 'hype' Vautour up, that doesn't mean the majority thought that, the arguement about whether Kauto is better than Vautour would have been easy to weigh in behind Kauto before Vautour did get beaten in the King George...

[oceans]

We've derailed a bit the CC thread talking about Vautour who clearly doesn't have the speed for 2 miles. Winning the Supreme with his stamina and jumping perfectly every hurdle with Ruby saying he doesn't have the gears for a CH should've been clear enough and thats why he got rerouted. Evidence of the Irish CC was just a confirmation for those who kept saying Vautour can win at any trip. Just like they do now with Douvan, even though he never showed any proof on the track that he stays further than 2 miles.

Vautour's best trip might well be 2 and half but that doesn't take away the obvious fact that the best horses over fences are racing either in Arkle, RSA - novices, CC, GC - open company, the Ryanair and JLT are the weakest events. There are A/W horses who have long winning streaks on dirt but I wouldn't start comparing them with the top class performers of the flat until they race in the top races. I hope Mullins goes GC with Vautour this year and follow the Cue Card, Don Cossack route, with so many 11-yos and injured horses that are coming in this year's renewal it might have a good chance of winning it.

[Kevloaf]

Ok so lets bring it back to the CC, Douvan as you point out, has only been at that trip. So whether or not people hype him as staying further is largely irrelevant for now.

I appreciate that the price might be wrong, I'd be interested to know what price do you a) think he should be? b) think he would be if trained by Paul Nicholls? c) think he would be if trained by Dan Skelton?

Or, what price you'd back him at if the race was tomorrow based on the market as it is now?

[oceans]

a) 5/1 2nd fav behind SS, b) 3/1 5/2 if trained by PN, c) 5/1 if trained by Skelton. If race was tomorrow I'd back him at 2/1 if Ar Mad and SS hadn't put any encouraging performances during the winter and 4/1 if those 2 mentioned put in a impressive display during the trials.

If I knew for sure UDS would also take part in the race then I wouldn't back Douvan below 5/1 as I think UDS is a better horse and with SS one year older then he would be my selection. Ruby also got the tactics wrong in the CC and followed Special Tiara too closely so if Paul would be on UDS I would include him in all the multiples, thats how strongly I'd view UDS if I was sure he would be in the race.

[Kevloaf]

Interesting. UDS only seems to have one tactic though, which is go at his own pace? I think Patrick Mullins suggested UDS's most likely target is the Ryanair. I think UDS would deserve another crack and on the actual bare form, he battled back to get second and has a 2nd is the Champion Chase to the greatest two miler I think I'll ever see.

HOWEVER, I think you are way too dismissive of how important the connections are when it is in their own stable. UDS was SO good over 2 miles, that they avoided him with Vautour... who ended up in the JLT. Hindsight probably shows that is a better trip for Vautour, but I feel very strongly that they thought UDS was a better 2 miler. With that being the case, they'll have been able to work Douvan with UDS and there, to my mind, is no way that they won't know who would win that. I feel that is factored in to his price for sure, but if UDS was better than Douvan over 2 miles, then there would be absolutely no talk whatsoever of Douvan going for the champion chase. If Mullins knew, they'd try Douvan over the longer trip! You said it yourself that the hype says he goes further, so if UDS was a better two miler, why oh why would they have Douvan lining up in this race?

[oceans]

To your last question the answer is simple, Mullins always places the horses at what they're best at(after he discovers it) and Douvan's only form is over 2 therefore he won't change that.

As for UDS, his connections will do what Mullins tells them and that will mean Ruby influence as well who won't want to get beat by UDS. Douvan will stay home in the trials, beat some below standard horses and go straight to Chelt with his odds collapsed. Ruby would look stupid to get off the odds-on favourite so he won't accept to run against UDS and he'll do everything to get him out of CC. UDS connections don't have a say on this, they are lucky to have horses with Mullins, not vice-versa. Of course I'd like to see him compete and try to go one better this season but that won't be allowed.

[Kevloaf]

So you don't think Mullins will have any idea, until the track proves it, whether Douvan can beat any other horse in the yard, over any other distance than 2miles?

If Ruby thought he would 'get beat' by UDS, he would be on UDS. He has the pick for a reason. If Douvan is his best chance of winning the Champion Chase, he'll be riding him, in the Champion Chase.

If UDS and Douvan both got declared now for the Champion Chase, and Ruby decided he would ride UDS, then the prices would almost certainly flip flop... because it would be perceived that UDS had a better chance of winning., (If that did happen Sprinter would probably shorten but its hypothetical)

[jono]

If I knew for sure UDS would also take part in the race then I wouldn't back Douvan below 5/1 as I think UDS is a better horse

Surely UDS falls into the exact same hype horse that didn't live up to the hype has the same 'flaws' as Douvan (and Vautour)?

His hurdle races consisted of wide margin wins against sub standard opposition at extreme odds on prices. He bypassed all the festivals and took in a couple of races in France, with the beating of Gemix probably the standout horse he beat. A lot of hype of him but you could argue no substance to back it up...

Going chasing he fell on debut against agin weak opposition. Next race he beat Smashing who's a good horse but over a trip too short for Smashing. His next race at the time looked brilliant but looking back Clarcam despite winning a grade 1 at Aintree is running in handicaps and the same with Gilgamboa (who could only finish 5th in that Ryanair which Vautour won (10 lengths back). He went into the Arkle a massive favourite and hype horse just like Douvan did and i'd say beat similar level horses. Finished the season at Punchestown where he struggled to beat Just Cameron!

Sounds pretty similar to Douvan surely? And i'd argue Douvan proved much more up until this point.

Then in open company the season just gone he's fallen again, beaten Sire de Grugy at Ascot, then comprehensively beaten twice at Cheltenham and Sandown. To finish the season they reverted back to hurdles over in France as 2 completely new trips.

I really don't know how you can be keen on UDS but then dismiss Douvan...

[paz247]

Everyone in the Mullins yard will know exactly what can do what and how things might pan out in races. Ruby WILL choose what he believes is his best chance of winning a race and after the last CC when UDS was beaten he will naturally look at Douvan who so far has been flawless in what he has done, wether against mediocre horses or not. He will have no doubt sat and talked with WM and RR regarding Vautour's race to go for at the fest last time and they got it right with the win, again wether against mediocre horses but they got the win, and that is the name of the game really, to have the best horse in its best chance race to WIN come the festivals and that's what they will do no matter how much we debate ( which is great by the way ) we just need to think about this when it comes to the betting

[oceans]

my view is entirely different juno, yes UDS failed to win the CC but against one of the best 2 mile chasers there has been and when using a tactic that went wrong and could've easily went the other way around, he was only beaten 3 lengths in the end. At Sandown he badly blundered 3 out and made another jumping mistake at the next fence so I wouldn't take that at face value. Now, looking back on UDS career he is unbeaten up to 2 and half miles except by SS who again is one of the best 2 mile chasers of all time. What has Douvan remotely done to compare with UDS ? Nothing except beating 1-2 horses that are average at best. Saying that Douvan has anything on UDS is wishful thinking until he proves it on the track, USD form being vastly superior.

[jono]

What was your view on UDS after his novice season? Did he beat anyone better or prove anything more than what Douvan has?

Here's the second place horses they have beaten, the OR of that horse and the distance

UDS over hurdles
Sammy Black OR107 - 6L
Moscow Mannon OR 133 - 13L
Rory O'Moore OR126 - 29L
Akatara OR104 - 53L
Midnight Game OR140 - 16L
Le Grand Luce - 2.5L

UDS over fences
Fell
Smashing OR148 - 12L
Clarcam OR156 - 15L
Gods Own OR160 - 6L <-- Arkle
Just Cameron OR148 -3L

Douvan over hurdles
Sizing John OR123 - 12L
Alpha des Obeaux OR136 - 3.5L
Shaneshill OR150 - 4.5L
Sizing John OR151 - 7.5L

Douvan over fences
Rogue Trader - 9.5L
Sizing John OR151 - 18L
Velvet Maker OR143 - 15L
Sizing John OR150 - 7L <-- Arkle
The Game Changer OR151 - 14L
The Game Changer OR151 - 11L

He's proved it against any opposition up until this point and i'd argue against better horses than UDS faced.
They'll always be a question mark until he steps into open company but he's done everything asked of him so far.

By the way this isn't meant to be a dig on UDS. I like the horse and like mentioned by kevloaf was a worthy favourite for the race. I actually think by trying to take out some of the exuberance of the horse and making him settle better they comprised some of his ability and have held him back a little too.

[oceans]

During his 2nd season as a hurdler I naturally thought UDS was going for the CH. But alas his connections had no choice but to be forced watching their horse being paraded overseas and in lower graded races than he deserved because Mullins had a certain love affair with Hurricane Fly and didn't wanted anything from his yard to challenge him.

This madness of protecting HF even cost AP a CH in 2014 and Faugheen an Irish CH in 2015 so UDS wasn't the only one affected but once he finally made it to novice chases he beat Smashing by 12 and 30 lengths, Clarcam by 15 and 32 lengths, Gilgamboa by 15, God's Own by 6, then in open company SDG by 5 and beaten by 3 lengths by SS. Douvan in his novice beat a horse called Sizing John who Arzal beat by 24 lengths, beat a horse called The Game Changer who in the same season finished 2 lengths behind Clarcam(yes the same one) whilst receiving 4 pounds from him.

Douvan's novice level of form is still lagging behind UDS. Counting on what has UDS achieved in open company then Douvan has a hill to climb only to equal his performances. Even at the height of UDS potential I never heard anyone saying he would've given Faugheen a race over hurdles, but with Douvan thats all I hear from the reporters and on forums, the nerves to call Douvan the best in Mullins yard because he said he's the best work horse is ridiculous. The fact he's doing what is asked is a good sign of a willing horse during races, it also means he has a good constitution and his height allows him to easily jump the fences than a short horse like UDS who fell twice due to his size and small margin of error. But from these positive things to his current price for the CC is a long way.