2017 Champion Chase

[jono]

Douvan's novice level of form is still lagging behind UDS. Counting on what has UDS achieved in open company then Douvan has a hill to climb only to equal his performances.

Of course any horse that comes into open company has it to prove against the 'current crop' who have been there, done it and have had another year to improve. That's a question mark for every horse regardless of how good they were as a novice. That's why I'm trying not to bring in what UDS has done in open company as I'm trying to compare UDS after his novice chase season. A 2nd in a champion chase is strong form that can't be knocked but Douvans had no chance to run at that level yet.

I think hurdles form has to be considered and i'd say the likes of Shaneshill, Alpha des Obeaux and Sizing John was a lot stronger than UDS's hurdle victories. But I do think UDS's beating of God's Own is probably the pick of all the horses they have both beaten over fences.
But really it's safe to say there are no standout horses in either of their lists that make you go wow. Both horses had the over top novices those years (Vautour, Garde L'Victoire, Killultagh Vic, L'ami Serge) go JLT to avoid them so most of the horses they were beating will never have the best form to look back on. I think it's pretty subjective to whose form looks the best, plus you have the hindsight of that extra year in UDS's Arkle win for who the other horses progressed on. (i.e Gods Own looks much better form now after the season just gone)

During his 2nd season as a hurdler I naturally thought UDS was going for the CH. But alas his connections had no choice but to be forced watching their horse being paraded overseas and in lower graded races than he deserved because Mullins had a certain love affair with Hurricane Fly and didn't wanted anything from his yard to challenge him.

You sound like you were pretty sweet on UDS chances in a champion hurdle that year. What piece of form over hurdles in this list:

Sammy Black
Moscow Mannon
Rory O'Moore
Akatara
Midnight Game
Le Grand Luce

Gave him any chance of winning a Champion Hurdle or meaning he deserved a place running in it? I agree Hurricane Fly took priority that season (i was really keen on Annie Power that year and hoped she would run) but Mullins could still have tested UDS against better opposition and still avoided Hurricane Fly. (there's enough races in the calendar that he could have been tested more or even come over to the UK) Again your argument against Douvan being all hype and having it all to prove is basically the exact same that could have been levelled at Un de Sceaux

Back to topic: If the Champion Chase was run tomorrow with Douvan added into the 2016 lineup my bet would be on Sprinter Sacre to win and beat Douvan. (So basically after all that debate I agree with you that Douvan is a bad price and the wrong favourite) But personally i'd say Douvan would come 2nd and beat the likes of UDS, Sire de Grugy.

Come March I think Douvan will have stepped up to another level but whether this is enough to get to Sprinter Sacre is the unknown. I think Douvan with another season may just have enough even if Sprinter Sacre stayed at the level shown this year but that would be a very close call. The worry is another year for Sprinter being 11 years old and whether he can hold that form

[Kevloaf]

Back to topic: If the Champion Chase was run tomorrow with Douvan added into the 2016 lineup my bet would be on Sprinter Sacre to win and beat Douvan. (So basically after all that debate I agree with you that Douvan is a bad price and the wrong favourite) But personally i'd say Douvan would come 2nd and beat the likes of UDS, Sire de Grugy.

If Douvan wins his first race in open company, say he beats Special Tiara for example, by a comfortable 4 lengths. Would that change your mind in to who you would back and consider the right favourite?

I think as soon as Douvan does take the first step in to open company, it'll be hard to say he isn't the right favorite. To say he isn't now is fair, but won't last for long.

As a betting prospect, then Douvan isn't worth having a bean on now as a single. On the day, at even I'd imagine I'd have my biggest ever bet (ironically, replacing the horse who currently holds that mantle for me in National Hunt, Mighty Spinter!)

[oceans]

if he gets beat by Special Tiara then it'd truly be disappointing as SDG, Gods'Own and many others have beat him so thats not really a good yardstick, if you really want a good one put him against UDS and see what happens. If beating ST by 4 lengths means he'd be the right favourite then almost half of the CC entries would have to be co-favs.Its really a weak division.

The race would need to be analyzed in context. First lets see him against older horses, get a handle of how good he truly is then praise him, until then he's a overhyped horse with no superior form over the 2nd or 3rd fav. I'm not talking about CC form, I'm talking about inferior collateral form with UDS novice season which I've explained in my last post.

[jono]

If Douvan wins his first race in open company, say he beats Special Tiara for example, by a comfortable 4 lengths. Would that change your mind in to who you would back and consider the right favourite?

Right now i'm confident Douvan would beat any 2mile chaser bar Sprinter Sacre so whatever he does in open company himself probably won't change my outlook on the race as I think he'll pass the question mark of open company with flying colours. It'll be more with how Sprinter performs leading up to the Festival. If the signs are that he still holds the same ability as he had in the 15/16 season (specifically in the Spring) then i'd still say he would be the worthy favourite but i'd have the odds extremely close.

Now they could both go for the Tingle Creek in December and at that point we'd likely know this answer. Though if i'm honest part of me wants the 2 to not meet until Cheltenham, both unbeaten just to add intrigue into this race. I got into racing just as Sprinter Sacre was going chasing and he captured my imagination in the sport and I haven't looked back since so sentiment is very much on his side as much as I believe Douvan could be the next true great.

[Kevloaf]

No need to race against UDS in an open event, Douvan will have worked all over him at home

Not really anything to disagree with you about jono, I almost want to play devil's advocate and be bullish regarding Douvan, but I expect everyone is in the same boat. Sprinter right now is the one any horse has to beat and Douvan looks like the only horse who might do that. (And UDS potentially, but we won't see the rematch)... UDS will be campaigned wherever there is soft it the going now. They brought out that excuse every time he wasn't impressive.

[mayo]

Brian O'Connor has a different view on Douvan

I The flat has its qualities but the jumps always trump it for sentiment. And it’s that sentiment which makes the idea of Douvan not being targeted at the Gold Cup this winter so infuriating.

Douvan isn’t the jump game’s greatest star. He is coming out of two novice campaigns over hurdles and fences after all. But he is its most exciting star. His potential is limitless. Willie Mullins has made no secret he believes this horse could be the best he’s had through his hands. It’s easy for us on the sidelines to get excited about young talent: when top professionals do the same it’s a sign of something special.

So it’s dispiriting to see Patrick Mullins quoted as saying: “It is a question of whether we stay at two miles with him (Douvan) this season or up him to three miles. He settles very well and you’d think that he could get three miles but he is so good over two miles, why change it?”

The ‘why’ is simple: the Gold Cup is the ultimate. It’s why the ‘Blue Riband’ tag is tied around it, the same with the Epsom Derby. Money often trumps sentiment for the Derby. Galileo Gold skipped it this year on the basis of a genetic test which appeared to coincide with a suspicion that the potential financial cost of rolling the stamina dice might be too great. But there are no such impediments to stamina considerations in the jumps game.

Of course it’s easy to be brave with someone else’s horse. And of course it is Rich Ricci’s privilege to decide. And of course there is plenty evidence of how Willie Mullins’ belief in keeping his horses in the worst of company to maximise their winning chance has spectacularly paid off. There is even the reality that simply getting a horse to Cheltenham in six months time is an achievement in itself.

But the Gold Cup is supposed to be the pinnacle, the ultimate test of the best steeplechasers. Should Douvan win the Champion Chase in style this March he will probably be lauded to the skies and simultaneously leave everyone wondering ‘what if?’ A horse with his quality and speed who’s never raced beyond an extended two miles would need to be a freak to also properly stay the Gold Cup trip. But Douvan might be such a freak. And how will we ultimately know if he is or isn’t if that talent isn’t tested in the ultimate cauldron.

Sure this is a professional business for those involved but they’re hardly short of a bob or three either. They can afford to dream, maybe get a little sentimental, even a bit brave with this horse.

Thistlecrack is the Gold Cup favourite, and he hasn’t even run over fences yet. Don Cossack is coming back off a leg problem. Coneygree is on the comeback trail too. Cue Card can hardly improve. Of course Ricci has Djakadam and Vautour too but it could be argued one has had his shot at Gold Cup glory and the other is starting to approach enigmatic status. And all the while the Gold Cup remains the one race Mullins has yet to win, and the one he wants most.

Maybe that might yet prove the ultimate ‘why’ should cool eventually be trumped by sentiment.

[Kevloaf]

Champion Chaser 2017
Gold Cup 2018

That's the dream surely... if he was to live up to the hype, and delivered both, that's putting him up there with the all time greats .... simple? Haha

[gjt7756]

Douvan is Douvan, he is anything but a hype horse, he's jumped hurdles he's jumped fences all in the public eye in front of thousands, essentially we know what he's about and what's expected of him, not what's hyped about him, an example of a hype horse would be Sennewalk in the supreme novices, been fav since the betting opened until last week and we as the public know absolutely squiddly dit about whether he jumps a hurdle, what horses he works up the gallops with, how he compares to those horses, all we have is one line from his owner and it's been run with by everyone on no factual evidence, that is your hype horse, but the hype is enough for me to stick him in a few multiples, and back to Douvan I've seen the horse jump, I was also there last season when sprinter won the CC and it was fantastic just what I wanted even though my wallet was for UDS, but as we've said another year older and against newer fresher legs I think he may come up short at the festival, I feel sprinter wins the tingle creek no matter who turns up but after that I don't see his future being much brighter with Douvan and UDS on the scene everywhere, I think with a slightly different ride Ruby would have got UDS a lot closer to sprinter, he wouldn't have beaten him that day, but now with another year on his back even if Douvan wasn't around I'd fancy sprinter not to retain the CC crown

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

The Donn on Douvan

One horse can take in all three festivals. The right horse. God’s Own finished fourth in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, then won the Melling Chase at Aintree after Vautour’s departure, before coming on to Punchestown on Tuesday and running out an impressive winner of the Punchestown Champion Chase.

Bellshill did it last year, finished down the field in the Cheltenham Bumper, finished second in the Aintree bumper, then came on to Punchestown and won the Champion Bumper. And he did something similar this year. Down the field in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, second in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, victorious in the Grade 1 Irish Daily Mirror Novices’ Hurdle at Punchestown on Wednesday.

But to win at all three festivals, that takes something special. You need an extraordinary horse for that.

On The Fringe is extraordinary. He did it last year, as a 10-year-old, won the Foxhunter at Cheltenham, won the Fox Hunters’ at Aintree, won the Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown.

This year as an 11-year-old, he wasn’t as impressive at Cheltenham, he only got home by a neck this year, compared with 17 lengths last year. But, remarkably, Enda Bolger’s horse seemed to improve this year between Cheltenham and Aintree, he won the Fox Hunters’ there again, and he was imperious again in the Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown on Friday.

And Douvan was at it again. Douvan didn’t go to Aintree last year, he just won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2015, then came on to Punchestown and danced in in the Champion Novice Hurdle. This year, he went to Aintree in the interim.

Arkle at Cheltenham, Maghull Chase at Aintree, Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown on Thursday, that was his spring calendar. Victories by, respectively, seven lengths, 14 lengths and 11 lenghts. Three more wins in the bag, three more Grade 1 wins. He’s extraordinary too.

[Kevloaf]

but now with another year on his back even if Douvan wasn't around I'd fancy sprinter not to retain the CC crown

Who would you fancy then, as there will be plenty of time for Douvan over the coming months! Betting without, Ar Mad? God's Own?

[Kevloaf]

Oddschecker best prices 9/10/16

Douvan - EVEN
Sprinter Sacre - 5/1
Un De Sceaux - 16/1
Vroum Vroum Mag - 16/1
Gods Own - 20/1
Simonsig - 20/1
Ar Mad - 25/1
Vautour - 25/1
Special Tiara - 25/1
Dodging Bullets - 33/1
Traffic Fluide - 33/1
Vaniteux - 33/1
Lami Serge 40/1
Sizing John - 40/1

UDS, VVM, Dodging Bullets, Traffic Fluide, Simonsig, Vautour all have other targets from trainers comment so far... that leaves:

Douvan - EVEN
Sprinter Sacre - 5/1
Gods Own - 20/1
Ar Mad - 25/1
Special Tiara - 25/1
Vaniteux - 33/1
Lami Serge 40/1
Sizing John - 40/1

Sizing John, L'Ami Serge, Vaniteux all have been beaten by Douvan either over hurdles or fences and hard to imagine they'll improve past him or get particularly close? That leaves me with:


Douvan - EVEN
Sprinter Sacre - 5/1
Gods Own - 20/1
Ar Mad - 25/1
Special Tiara - 25/1


God's Own better right handed and was 4th in the race this year so hard to see where the improvement will come from at the festival? I'm happy to rule him out for this particular race.

Similar comments about Ar Mad, better right handed, would definitely be a concern and has only got a neck beating of Vaniteux in the book and that was a great ride on the day. 'Stole the race' kinda job in my opinion (which I was pleased about as I backed it on the day!) ... however, I'd be confident Douvan has Vaniteux covered in the Arkle and therefore think Ar Mad would need to improve plenty which is hard after an injury?

Happy to rule Ar Mad out, (although I have got him in the odd multiple) ... down to 3

Special Tiara was 3rd last year, went off faster than perhaps wanted to, to take UDS out of its comfort zone? Only just went down by a nose on the run in for 3rd and they were both closing in on Sprinter Sacre... I think at 5 times the price of SS, and the chance that SS might disgress could tempt me...

Sprinter Sacre has the age stats to defy. (I absolutely love this horse.) I'd like nothing more than Sprinter to win again, but with my betting head on, despite looking like an each way steal, considering Special Tiara is a year younger and less likely to digress, if I was going to back a horse at the moment, it'd be ST each way... The horse doesn't owe anyone anything and I am a bit surprised he is racing again this season after regaining the Champion Chase crown.

If you back those two each way, and the novices turn out to be no good in open company, we're on a winner... if the novices (and therefore Douvan) look special, then I can't see the market changing much anyway! Douvan will be no shorter than 4/6 (Unless he meets, and beats SS prior to the festival) which is highly unlikely!

There is also that small chance that Douvan goes for the KIng George, wins it on the snaff and goes for the Gold Cup... I think, THINK, I might have a bet on SS and ST each way... and on the day, get whipped up in the hype and smash Douvan up!

[Istabraq]

'God's Own better right handed and was 4th in the race this year so hard to see where the improvement will come from at the festival? I'm happy to rule him out for this particular race.'

Dangerous Kevloaf, he was tanking behind UDS in their Arkle until he drifted towards the stands and missed the last.
He improved hand over fist last season too and if he gets his preferred quick ground he is a real player for me...

[Kevloaf]

The improvement came from going right handed though?
Drifting right after tanking along would put me off though, as it'll be on the same track.
His price is fair, and a lot of my comments are just very quick to eliminate a lot of horses, when of course I could be wrong numerous times... but I'd be shocked (and disappointed) if God's Own was good enough to win a champion chase.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Its a 2 horse race. Nothing else will be good enough in my opinion to beat Sprinter or Douvan. Its the one race where I wouldn't be looking for a big price to back antepost (not that I would back against Sprinter anyway) because I don't think anyone is realistically good enough to beat both horses. One could have an off day but not both. So there is no win value to the ew bet.

I hope both go unbeaten (Sprinter holds his form because bar a fall nothing touches either) and we have the big clash in March.

[Istabraq]

Possibly kevloaf, I'd just be wary of any horse that improved so dramatically.
He hasn't been tested on left handed tracks since and could show similar improvement going the other way.

There were a few doubting voices around Thistlecrack when he won the Sefton a couple of years ago, one of two said he was better going right righted after he flopped behind some average animals on Trials Day and the 25/1 Aintree win was a freak...