2015 Champion Hurdle

[iainmcf]

Yes I take all these points that have been made but I'm sticking to my belief that Jezki has been underestimated.He's the champion hurdler who comes good in the spring.To take on the fly 3 times latterly at Leopardstown where no horse has beaten the fly dosent faze me re Jezki's chances.In fact Jezki has probably run to a higher level than Faugheen or The New One this season even in defeat.I always prefer proven form over potential and unlucky in running horses, we'll find out soon whose read this race right.

[Old Vic]

If I had to bet on the race it would be on Jezki. He is a each way price and unlikely to be out of the three imo. I just cant see him winning again.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Yes I take all these points that have been made but I'm sticking to my belief that Jezki has been underestimated.He's the champion hurdler who comes good in the spring.To take on the fly 3 times latterly at Leopardstown where no horse has beaten the fly dosent faze me re Jezki's chances.In fact Jezki has probably run to a higher level than Faugheen or The New One this season even in defeat.I always prefer proven form over potential and unlucky in running horses, we'll find out soon whose read this race right.

We certainly will find out, that's where the debate ends. I actually put up a post a while back regarding the principals in this race saying I had a feeling one of them at least wouldn't make it and yesterday, I think it was Lessey, said that there was a rumour that TNO had pulled a muscle at Haydock. I tried to find my post where I'd forecast a nonner, but couldn't, so perhaps I thought about posting it then forgot, they say the memory goes first, but I can't remember where I read that.

[donka]

The practice known as confirmation bias seeking out only information which supports previously formed opinions.

I try at least to be aware of it.

Hi OV- I may have been guilty of a bit of this once or twice in past-but hey as long as the lesson's learned it's a worthwhile mistake to make.

I went a bit OTT on the TNO last season and took a hefty hoof in the tatties I think he's still got a great shout-If forgiving his last run his international effort was top drawer. Dunno though i'm struggling to commit to a bet.
I know cases can be made but it does look like it all centres around the top three, I'll probably ew double TNO and Jezki with Glens Melody,Hopefully a bet to nothing.

[MrMcGoldrick]

If I had to bet on the race it would be on Jezki. He is a each way price and unlikely to be out of the three imo. I just cant see him winning again.

I must admit I'm in the Faugheen camp with an ew saver on HF, I think the reason people have cottoned on to Faugheen is how visually impressive his wins have been and the body language of Ruby in a couple of instances. This is the point I was making earlier though, reading other peoples views I ask myself what he's actually beat, but that leads me to who's done the most winning in top class this season and that's what draws me back to my old favourite, HF.

[iainmcf]

Maybe you have forgot that Jezki is the champion hurdler,Mr McG, only joking ha, its all about opinions anyway, I think that some of the pro's on the preview circuit put forward that TNO looked lame in his last run but according to the trainer all is well.

[Old Vic]

Hi OV- I may have been guilty of a bit of this once or twice in past-but hey as long as the lesson's learned it's a worthwhile mistake to make.

I went a bit OTT on the TNO last season and took a hefty hoof in the tatties I think he's still got a great shout-If forgiving his last run his international effort was top drawer. Dunno though i'm struggling to commit to a bet.
I know cases can be made but it does look like it all centres around the top three, I'll probably ew double TNO and Jezki with Glens Melody,Hopefully a bet to nothing.

I remember you were keen on TNO Donka.

Something about this years prep reminds me of the build up to his Neptune win ...I really dont know about this race.

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[donka]

I remember you were keen on TNO Donka.

Something about this years prep reminds me of the build up to his Neptune win ...I really dont know about this race.

I was thinking the same OV..has he or hasn't he got the virus? then bolts up!

I see Carl llewellyn said he didn't fancy TNO..Probably trying to get a bigger price.

[Morning Glory]

I was thinking the same OV..has he or hasn't he got the virus? then bolts up!

I see Carl llewellyn said he didn't fancy TNO..Probably trying to get a bigger price.

The stable revel as the underdog.

But can get on right for the big day ...Imperial Commander

[mayo]

The Donn

The Champion Hurdle is one of the most intriguing races at the Cheltenham Festival with an undefeated Faugheen taking on reigning champ Jezki and two-time winner Hurricane Fly as well as last year's third The New One. But Donn McClean is searching for value and is keen on one lower down the list...

Even if only the top five in the market line up, the Champion Hurdle will be one of the most intriguing races of Cheltenham week.

There are so many imponderables, several fascinating questions that will be answered by the running of an incident-free race.

Faugheen, for starters, has never been beaten, so we still don't know where the ceiling of his ability lies. Willie Mullins' horse has run nine times - once in a point-to-point, once in a bumper and seven times over hurdles, three times at Grade 1 level - and he has won nine times.

He is versatile too. He has won over three miles on heavy ground and he has won over two miles on good to yielding ground. He has won on flat tracks and undulating tracks, going right-handed and going left-handed, in Ireland and in Britain and under four different riders. We probably won't know how good he is until he gets beaten.

The New One has a score to settle with the Champion Hurdle. It is impossible to know for sure how much ground he lost when he was hampered by Our Conor's fall in last year's renewal, but it is easy to argue that it was more than the two-and-three-quarter lengths by which he was beaten. Nigel Twiston-Davies' horse has not been beaten since.

In contrast to The New One, Jezki has not won this season. He has run three times, and he has been beaten by Hurricane Fly three times. That said, Jessica Harrington's horse is the reigning champ, and he thrives under Cheltenham Festival conditions: good ground, fast pace, electric atmosphere. He put up the best performance of his life under those conditions to claim the title last season, and there is every reason to expect that a repeat performance is forthcoming.

Which brings us on to the phenomenon that is Hurricane Fly, 22-time Grade 1 winner, dual Champion Hurdler. Won it, lost it, won it, lost it. Complete the sequence. It is interesting that Willie Mullins does not subscribe to the notion that the Montjeu gelding is not at his best at Cheltenham, that he believes that there were reasons for his two Champion Hurdle defeats.

Common sense and history tells you that he cannot be at his best at the age of 11, but his form this season tells you otherwise. Remember that Sea Pigeon won the Champion Hurdle at the age of 11 in 1981, beating Pollardstown and Daring Run and Bird's Nest and Badsworth Boy. It's possible.

The Champion Hurdle market has matured now and found its points of equilibrium, as markets that have been around for 12 months tend to do. However, if there is any value left in it, it probably lies in Arctic Fire. He may still be a little under-rated at 17.5 on the exchange or at 14/1 on the Sportsbook.

The Soldier Hollow-gelding proved that he can handle Festival conditions when he finished second in the County Hurdle last year. He might have won it too had the race panned out a little differently. He hit the front on landing over the final flight out in the centre of the track, and he was just mugged close home by Lac Fontana, who raced up the favoured stands rail. That said, it was still a high class performance: Lac Fontana went on to Aintree and landed the Grade 1 Mersey Hurdle.

Arctic Fire has progressed again this season. He got to within two lengths of Hurricane Fly and Jezki in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival, and he split the pair of them in the Irish Champion Hurdle back at Leopardstown in January, admittedly helped by Jezki's final flight blunder. But those two runs proved that, at worst, he is not far off.

Of course, Mullins' horse has to improve again if he is to get closer still in the Champion Hurdle, but there are two reasons for believing that he can. Firstly, he thrives on good ground behind a fast pace. He is at his best when he can be held up and delivered late, the potency of his turn of foot maximised away from winter ground. The Cheltenham Festival was made for him.

Secondly, he is only six, he is still improving. It is not a coincidence that only one five-year-old has won the Champion Hurdle since See You Then in 1985, but that three of the last six winners were six. His trainer says that he believes that he will continue to improve all the way to Champion Hurdle day. The 17.5 on the exchange is tempting, but it is probably best to back him at 14/1 on Betfair's sportsbook, because you can back him each-way at that, it is a good each-way race, and you get the added bonus of non-runner-no-bet.

Betfair Sportsbook are NRNB in case anyone missed it.

[Lester]

Betfair Sportsbook are Non runner No bet on all races

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[Thomas Shelby]

Betfair Sportsbook are Non runner No bet on all races

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That is a killer deal.

[iainmcf]

Barry G just finished on ATR with Jason and Luke.Got asked which wud you ride Faugheen or Hurricane Fly...answer.. I'd be happy to ride Jezki!

[Lester]

Barry G just finished on ATR with Jason and Luke.Got asked which wud you ride Faugheen or Hurricane Fly...answer.. I'd be happy to ride Jezki!

Luke knows

[MrMcGoldrick]

Barry G just finished on ATR with Jason and Luke.Got asked which wud you ride Faugheen or Hurricane Fly...answer.. I'd be happy to ride Jezki!

Sounds like he's trying to jock AP off