2015 Champion Hurdle

[MrMcGoldrick]

From a 2012 preview. The Fly lost the battle and won the war...certainly hasnt let anyone down.

Ye, 3 years on, talk about P.Hobbs with egg on his face, his thinking will have been tarnished though by the fact that he couldn't have kept HF at the top, I don't think anyone could have done what Mullins has. My own thinking on HF though is biased because he owes me absolutely nothing, I picked up a small fortune when he won this in 2013, and I've milked the market in probably 15 of his 22 grade one wins, the talk before all of them however has remained the same, "I think [pick a horse] will do him for toe" or "He's coming to a point where top class opposition is too much for him", or my personal fav "He only wins around Leopardstown and in small fields"

[loveracing]

Did anyone stumble over this article in the Daily Star that was on published on 19/02?

“If Hurricane Fly was two years younger he would be the clear favourite instead of Faugheen. People say Hurricane Fly does not run his best at Cheltenham but I disagree. He’s two from four and there are valid excuses for those defeats.

“He’s better than he was last year. My heart is with Hurricane Fly but I think probably what the bookmakers say may be right.”

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/426387/Willie-Mullins-says-Douvan-star-50-runners-Cheltenham-Festival

[MrMcGoldrick]

Did anyone stumble over this article in the Daily Star that was on published on 19/02?

“If Hurricane Fly was two years younger he would be the clear favourite instead of Faugheen. People say Hurricane Fly does not run his best at Cheltenham but I disagree. He’s two from four and there are valid excuses for those defeats.

“He’s better than he was last year. My heart is with Hurricane Fly but I think probably what the bookmakers say may be right.”

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/hor...enham-Festival

I had read that quote, it's inline with what I've mentioned a few times, if you went purely on which horse has done what this season you would be all over the Fly, I'd love to see him win, even though I will collect by far the most if Faugheen does the business. I can't see him being out of the three, bet to nothing if I'm right, in fact still a decent profit at 8/1.

[loveracing]

I had read that quote, it's inline with what I've mentioned a few times, if you went purely on which horse has done what this season you would be all over the Fly, I'd love to see him win, even though I will collect by far the most if Faugheen does the business. I can't see him being out of the three, bet to nothing if I'm right, in fact still a decent profit at 8/1.

Am I reading the last bit wrong?

“He’s better than he was last year. My heart is with Hurricane Fly but I think probably what the bookmakers say may be right.”

That to me says Faugheen is the more likley winner?

[MrMcGoldrick]

Am I reading the last bit wrong?

“He’s better than he was last year. My heart is with Hurricane Fly but I think probably what the bookmakers say may be right.”

That to me says Faugheen is the more likley winner?

With Ricci having so many horses in the yard I'm sure Willie just wants to be diplomatic and is obviously trying to get his message across that there's not as much between these two as everyone thinks, the words "probably" and "may" suggest a lack of committment to the statement

[MrMcGoldrick]

Plenty of blue on the OC board for Jezki

[loveracing]

If a horse or 2 at the top end of he market fluffs his lines something tells me Purple Bay could sneak a place at 50's.

[Lester]

Plenty of blue on the OC board for Jezki

Rumours that TNO pulled a muscle at Haydock.

[Hoof]

[iainmcf]

I'm fed up of the hype surrounding Faugheen....this horse aint an even money shot in my book.It hasnt beaten anything this season and imo Jezki has been underestimated.Jezki hasnt been given any credit for winning a fast run champion last season and backed it up with a convincing win against the fly at Punchestown.This horse is the same age as Faugheen and already has a champion hurdle in the bag, I think come the day a lot of punters will look back and say why didnt we back Jezki!!

[Mytentoryours]

I'm fed up of the hype surrounding Faugheen....this horse aint an even money shot in my book.It hasnt beaten anything this season and imo Jezki has been underestimated.Jezki hasnt been given any credit for winning a fast run champion last season and backed it up with a convincing win against the fly at Punchestown.This horse is the same age as Faugheen and already has a champion hurdle in the bag, I think come the day a lot of punters will look back and say why didnt we back Jezki!!

In which case I hope you have backed Jezki accordingly. I wouldn't be complaining about Faugheen's price if you are a Jezki fan, just make sure you exploit this apparent blip on the bookies part.

Put yourself in their shoes though. Would you be dangling a carrot of 5/2 or 3/1 about Faugheen if you were a bookie?

[MrMcGoldrick]

In which case I hope you have backed Jezki accordingly. I wouldn't be complaining about Faugheen's price if you are a Jezki fan, just make sure you exploit this apparent blip on the bookies part.

Put yourself in their shoes though. Would you be dangling a carrot of 5/2 or 3/1 about Faugheen if you were a bookie?

I think you have a point there Tenty, the bookies are all saying that the biggest loser in their book is Faugheen, whilst they were offering bigger prices people were lumping on. As far as jezki is concerned his good form was last season, hasn't won this season so the bookies must think he's not the same horse, maybe they're right maybe not, that's why they offer a book and we try to find the holes in their thinking, we all have our views on who's done what and what it's worth in the context of a race, I think beating Jezki 3 times this season means HF should be a shorter price, based on that alone, but there is the ground consideration, and the age worry, so you have to decide what the outcome will be given a variety of differences between past and now, the winners are all there we just need to find them. If we all put our thoughts forward it gives us options that perhaps we hadn't considered rather than getting hooked on an idea that we cling to relentlessly

[Old Vic]

. If we all put our thoughts forward it gives us options that perhaps we hadn't considered rather than getting hooked on an idea that we cling to relentlessly

The practice known as confirmation bias seeking out only information which supports previously formed opinions.

I try at least to be aware of it.

[Mytentoryours]

I think you have a point there Tenty, the bookies are all saying that the biggest loser in their book is Faugheen, whilst they were offering bigger prices people were lumping on. As far as jezki is concerned his good form was last season, hasn't won this season so the bookies must think he's not the same horse, maybe they're right maybe not, that's why they offer a book and we try to find the holes in their thinking, we all have our views on who's done what and what it's worth in the context of a race, I think beating Jezki 3 times this season means HF should be a shorter price, based on that alone, but there is the ground consideration, and the age worry, so you have to decide what the outcome will be given a variety of differences between past and now, the winners are all there we just need to find them. If we all put our thoughts forward it gives us options that perhaps we hadn't considered rather than getting hooked on an idea that we cling to relentlessly

Yes as you say plenty of considerations for pricing. That's a good point, he hasn't won a race and been beaten by the same horse 3 times. He was roughly 6/1 at the start of the season and is a slightly shorter price now but obviously the bookies are factoring in last seasons Cheltenham form in.

[MrMcGoldrick]

The practice known as confirmation bias seeking out only information which supports previously formed opinions.

I try at least to be aware of it.

Me too OV, it definitely stops you spotting flaws, and makes winning more difficult