So with just 33 days to go until another festival, how does everyone approach the 4 days?
Do you bet on all 28 races at the festival without fail?
This is one area i'm hoping to improve upon this year. I can't think of a festival where I haven't bet on every race, even if I don't have a particularly strong fancy in the race. Last year was a prime example where by the last races on the Friday, after almost 4 whirlwind days at the festival I had barely looked at the Grand Annual and having no strong idea on the winner I think i pretty much just plucked 2 horses out with little reasoning, with it being the final race I felt I had to have a couple of bets in the race. The least said on where these horses came the better...:disgust: i'd have been much better spending the money on pints that evening! I also tend to start off the week with have a set amount of points per race regardless of how I feel i'll do in each race. Stakes will increase as the races go by especially if i'm 'up' and i can afford to put larger bets down, or if on the morning the days card really screams for it (i.e last Thursday with Vautour/Thistlecrack/Limini). But essentially going back to the first point about not betting on every race - adjusting my stake for each race based on my selections/confidence rather than a blanket 1pt for each race. Definitely an area I can try and improve on.
When do you make your final selections?
Do you have your final selections done by the Monday before? Or each night before?
Being at the festival for the entire week means form study during that time is very sparse so it's very much a case of packing in the reading in the weeks leading up to it for me. Every year i'm itching for the NH season to get into gear in the summer and crack on with antepost with an eye to March but every year it still seems to come around quickly and even now i'm thinking I have a LOT of reading/studying to do for all the races! I'll (hopefully) have a decent take on the main races a few weeks before and then i'll work my way through the others. Obviously the handicaps are the tricky ones to do in advance. I'll have a few horses on my radar and then when the entries come out i'll try and go through each race and narrow it down to 5-6 horses so at least when it comes to the day/festival week I have a good starting point. It'll then be a mix of betting online/at the course before each race, bar what I have covered in antepost.
In the days leading up to the festival i'll also try and write down a list of horses who share strong form lines and have collateral form. If i can remember i'll then try and keep them in mind across the 4 days. An example: The New One winning the Neptune on the Tuesday. The race before that he had just got beat a neck by At Fishers Cross. Come the Friday AFC had been given a great form boost there and followed that up to win the Albert Bartlett.
How antepost betting (if you do it) effects your picks?
By the sounds of it the majority of posters here (myself included) enjoy betting antepost and have already built up a decent antepost book as the season has unfolded. How does this affect the race come the day? Will you bet on the same horse(s) and top up the bet if you still fancy it? Pick out another horse or an each way as they are already covered? Sit back and just watch the race unfold? Keen to see how others approach this. I don't really have a set rule. Sometimes i'll go in again on the same horse if i think the value is still there. Other times especially if my antepost bet is no longer looking so good i'll back another horse in the race.
Placepots/Lucky15's/Yankees etc?
Do you have a particular method for these if you place any? I tend to do a couple of placepots each morning, one being between a few of us, then will maybe place a lucky15 (betfred treble the odds) or yankee or two throughout the week.
How about everyone else?
Trends & Stats
How much importance do you take with trends and stats? Do you form your own opinion and then consult trends afterwards? Do you use trends to narrow down your selections to a more manageable number of horses to then study the form? Any strong trends and stats you always rely on? I'll generally try and avoid looking at trends too much until I have a decent idea on who I think will win the race. A lot of the trends i'll be aware of anyway so may effect my judgement without consciously thinking about them. Handicaps are probably one area where I do sometimes look to them beforehand to try and narrow down such a large amount of entries.
I am a big fan of festival/course form and also on the recent records of trainers/jockeys/owners, with them being creatures of habit once they find a winning formula in a race they'll often try and repeat it. Jockey bookings in the amateur races as discussed are essential.
A nice little one I'll be keeping an eye on this year is how Sam Twiston-Davies is doing during the week. This could easily have 0% chance of happening but in 2015 he got his first winner on Aux Ptits Soins in the Coral Cup to then follow that ride up winning with a confident ride on Dodging Bullets. 2016 he rode the winner of the Fred Winter and straight away followed that up on Ballyandy. He's not a bad jockey but I do feel like the pressure he is under under Paul Nichols means he can sometimes effect his ride (like Daryl Jacob imo he is a confidence jockey) so just getting that one winner can be a huge relief and weight off his shoulders for him to then be able to go out there and be relaxed, hence a good chance of him picking up another winner. He might only get a couple of winners but be wary they may come one after the over/close together.
I quite like looking into the trends as well to see if they have been misunderstood - trends where horses aged X have a poor record can be true but when looked into may have not had many runners and actually have performed ok, that kind of thing. Weights under/over are also less of a concern for me. I don't tend to go back too far, only looking at the last 5-6 years as well as I personally feel like 10 years (generally the most common i've seen) is too long and so much can/has changed in that time.
Probably the 2 trends/stats that I tend to always rely on overall are to avoid horses 10+ in the championship races unless exceptionally circumstances (the good - Sprinter Sacre) and to avoid last time out fallers (the bad - Black Hercules)
Specific Approach for certain races?
Do you approach certain races differently? Do you have some races you'll avoid and can never seem to back a winner? Races where you're on a roll? A strong trend/angle in any that has served you well?
I'm sure i've missed plenty out so feel free to add. Hopefully we can all chip in and give some pointers for eachother :encouragement:
Do you bet on all 28 races at the festival without fail?
This is one area i'm hoping to improve upon this year. I can't think of a festival where I haven't bet on every race, even if I don't have a particularly strong fancy in the race. Last year was a prime example where by the last races on the Friday, after almost 4 whirlwind days at the festival I had barely looked at the Grand Annual and having no strong idea on the winner I think i pretty much just plucked 2 horses out with little reasoning, with it being the final race I felt I had to have a couple of bets in the race. The least said on where these horses came the better...:disgust: i'd have been much better spending the money on pints that evening! I also tend to start off the week with have a set amount of points per race regardless of how I feel i'll do in each race. Stakes will increase as the races go by especially if i'm 'up' and i can afford to put larger bets down, or if on the morning the days card really screams for it (i.e last Thursday with Vautour/Thistlecrack/Limini). But essentially going back to the first point about not betting on every race - adjusting my stake for each race based on my selections/confidence rather than a blanket 1pt for each race. Definitely an area I can try and improve on.
When do you make your final selections?
Do you have your final selections done by the Monday before? Or each night before?
Being at the festival for the entire week means form study during that time is very sparse so it's very much a case of packing in the reading in the weeks leading up to it for me. Every year i'm itching for the NH season to get into gear in the summer and crack on with antepost with an eye to March but every year it still seems to come around quickly and even now i'm thinking I have a LOT of reading/studying to do for all the races! I'll (hopefully) have a decent take on the main races a few weeks before and then i'll work my way through the others. Obviously the handicaps are the tricky ones to do in advance. I'll have a few horses on my radar and then when the entries come out i'll try and go through each race and narrow it down to 5-6 horses so at least when it comes to the day/festival week I have a good starting point. It'll then be a mix of betting online/at the course before each race, bar what I have covered in antepost.
In the days leading up to the festival i'll also try and write down a list of horses who share strong form lines and have collateral form. If i can remember i'll then try and keep them in mind across the 4 days. An example: The New One winning the Neptune on the Tuesday. The race before that he had just got beat a neck by At Fishers Cross. Come the Friday AFC had been given a great form boost there and followed that up to win the Albert Bartlett.
How antepost betting (if you do it) effects your picks?
By the sounds of it the majority of posters here (myself included) enjoy betting antepost and have already built up a decent antepost book as the season has unfolded. How does this affect the race come the day? Will you bet on the same horse(s) and top up the bet if you still fancy it? Pick out another horse or an each way as they are already covered? Sit back and just watch the race unfold? Keen to see how others approach this. I don't really have a set rule. Sometimes i'll go in again on the same horse if i think the value is still there. Other times especially if my antepost bet is no longer looking so good i'll back another horse in the race.
Placepots/Lucky15's/Yankees etc?
Do you have a particular method for these if you place any? I tend to do a couple of placepots each morning, one being between a few of us, then will maybe place a lucky15 (betfred treble the odds) or yankee or two throughout the week.
How about everyone else?
Trends & Stats
How much importance do you take with trends and stats? Do you form your own opinion and then consult trends afterwards? Do you use trends to narrow down your selections to a more manageable number of horses to then study the form? Any strong trends and stats you always rely on? I'll generally try and avoid looking at trends too much until I have a decent idea on who I think will win the race. A lot of the trends i'll be aware of anyway so may effect my judgement without consciously thinking about them. Handicaps are probably one area where I do sometimes look to them beforehand to try and narrow down such a large amount of entries.
I am a big fan of festival/course form and also on the recent records of trainers/jockeys/owners, with them being creatures of habit once they find a winning formula in a race they'll often try and repeat it. Jockey bookings in the amateur races as discussed are essential.
A nice little one I'll be keeping an eye on this year is how Sam Twiston-Davies is doing during the week. This could easily have 0% chance of happening but in 2015 he got his first winner on Aux Ptits Soins in the Coral Cup to then follow that ride up winning with a confident ride on Dodging Bullets. 2016 he rode the winner of the Fred Winter and straight away followed that up on Ballyandy. He's not a bad jockey but I do feel like the pressure he is under under Paul Nichols means he can sometimes effect his ride (like Daryl Jacob imo he is a confidence jockey) so just getting that one winner can be a huge relief and weight off his shoulders for him to then be able to go out there and be relaxed, hence a good chance of him picking up another winner. He might only get a couple of winners but be wary they may come one after the over/close together.
I quite like looking into the trends as well to see if they have been misunderstood - trends where horses aged X have a poor record can be true but when looked into may have not had many runners and actually have performed ok, that kind of thing. Weights under/over are also less of a concern for me. I don't tend to go back too far, only looking at the last 5-6 years as well as I personally feel like 10 years (generally the most common i've seen) is too long and so much can/has changed in that time.
Probably the 2 trends/stats that I tend to always rely on overall are to avoid horses 10+ in the championship races unless exceptionally circumstances (the good - Sprinter Sacre) and to avoid last time out fallers (the bad - Black Hercules)
Specific Approach for certain races?
Do you approach certain races differently? Do you have some races you'll avoid and can never seem to back a winner? Races where you're on a roll? A strong trend/angle in any that has served you well?
I'm sure i've missed plenty out so feel free to add. Hopefully we can all chip in and give some pointers for eachother :encouragement:
