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Cross Country Chase 2018

Kevloaf said:
Needs to though... young and would need to improve incredibly far to reach the level that has been set.
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Until we see coc run on the day we have no idea.
I can understand people being confident he runs the exact same race and that gets the job done. But I'm not sure how realistic that is in a race of this nature and for coc himself, a year older and a grand national inbetween .
 
Thought that was a nice performance from Auvergnat. Travelled like the best horse in the race and jumped well on the back of his fall last time. Quite a significant drift which suggests they thought he would come on plenty for the run and he didn’t find as much as he looked he might.

He’s every right to be improving more than CoC imo and think he will be a pretty tough nut to crack come March myself.
 
Scooby91 said:
A little gutted I thought I might be lucky and josies orders pushed out to an ew price after that. But wishful thinking it seems.
Will stick with
coc 9/1
Auvergnat 14/1.

Room for another though on the day. Either josies orders or the French horse ew.
10/1 josies orders would be acceptable for me the night before.
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Probalby unlikely to get the 10/1 at Josies has performed better at Chelt than Auvergnat... so plenty might expect him to reverse that nostril today.

I'd add JO e/w at double figures probably.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Thought that was a nice performance from Auvergnat. Travelled like the best horse in the race and jumped well on the back of his fall last time. Quite a significant drift which suggests they thought he would come on plenty for the run and he didn’t find as much as he looked he might.

He’s every right to be improving more than CoC imo and think he will be a pretty tough nut to crack come March myself.
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You expect Auvergnat to be the one to beat despite being beaten by CoC 11.5L last season? That is a long, long way.
 
Kevloaf said:
Probalby unlikely to get the 10/1 at Josies has performed better at Chelt than Auvergnat... so plenty might expect him to reverse that nostril today.

I'd add JO e/w at double figures probably.
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We will all be shocked at some of the prices on the day. And in some cases think why do we bet antepost this side of Christmas
 
I was all over Auvegnat back in the Autumn and have some nice 16/1 vouchers but when CofC looked certain to head here I started backing that one.
Todays performance was massive for Auvegnat who has developed a habit of hitting the odd one.
The gap between the two has narrowed after that but I'd probably still have CofC fav ahead of Auvergnat....
 
Scooby91 said:
We will all be shocked at some of the prices on the day. And in some cases think why do we bet antepost this side of Christmas
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One of the things I'll be tracking this year :encouragement: WOuldn't like to put a percentage on how many bets I have that aren't going to beat SP at the moment.

Incredibly, Faugheen 4/1 NRNB is one of them - I thought that weas an absolute rick when Sky offered it - love the game.
 
Kevloaf said:
You expect Auvergnat to be the one to beat despite being beaten by CoC 11.5L last season? That is a long, long way.
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I didn’t say he’s the one to beat Kev. That’s obviously CoC. But I think he will be a tough nut to crack. It’s not a ‘long, long way’. It only requires CoC to have regressed a few lb’s and Auvergnat to have improved a few lb’s which considering their respective ages, doesn’t require a great leap of faith. Auvergnat also missed a few early on last season and didn’t get into a rhythm straight away.

CoC still my biggest winner and Auvergnat the only other I’ve backed but I think they will be much closer this year.
 
Istabraq said:
I was all over Auvegnat back in the Autumn and have some nice 16/1 vouchers but when CofC looked certain to head here I started backing that one.
Todays performance was massive for Auvegnat who has developed a habit of hitting the odd one.
The gap between the two has narrowed after that but I'd probably still have CofC fav ahead of Auvergnat....
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:encouragement: Very much how I see it.

Without CoC in the race, who I genuinly think has proven he's the standout in this sphere.... I'd have it close between Auvergnat, Josie's Orders, Urgent De Gregaine and Tiger Roll (although this one is living on the coat-tails of CoC)


CCM - Yes I see, I read "tough nut to crack" as that you thought he was the one to beat... agree with you and ista, they'll likely be closer than 11.5L!
 
Istabraq said:
I was all over Auvegnat back in the Autumn and have some nice 16/1 vouchers but when CofC looked certain to head here I started backing that one.
Todays performance was massive for Auvegnat who has developed a habit of hitting the odd one.
The gap between the two has narrowed after that but I'd probably still have CofC fav ahead of Auvergnat....
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Could have posted exactly that myself ista!
 
Scooby91 said:
Until we see coc run on the day we have no idea.
I can understand people being confident he runs the exact same race and that gets the job done. But I'm not sure how realistic that is in a race of this nature and for coc himself, a year older and a grand national inbetween .
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The amount of positivity for Cause of Causes is down to the price he's been I'd say?

10/1
9/1
7/1
6/1
11/2
9/2

Are all prices that I've backed CoC at in multiples...He's a big winner for me as a single, but not make or break!

In terms if multiples, because he was 9/1 and in particular 7/1 for so long there are some multiples I've had that make him a potential life changer, let alone week changer.

I don't have an INSANE amount staked on him... but I could win an INSANE amount.

Would I prefer to have that amount returned on Apple's Jade - Yes, Buveur D'air, yes.... etc.... but the price has dictated how 'important' CoC could potentially be....

so I think you're right, the confidence is probably more value based than chance based - however.... I am extremely happy :p
 
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Hey Guys - Here's an after race report in the Irish news with Enda's thoughts. Seems like another vote for CoC's.
I'm all over JO ew as a while ago Enda described him as his definate No1 cheltenham hope. He also said JO now takes an age to get fit so after today he should spot on going back to the place he loves. I will certainly be having a saver on CoCs though.

Bolger later reported “that's out little lot done now before Cheltenham. Whether our lads are good enough to handle the likes of Cause Of Causes, I don't think so, but we don't know what will turn up - Auvergnat is still relatively young as well.

“There is nothing we can do, only win, so I'm happy with that.

“Cheltenham is the plan for the first two and Cantlow (a non-runner from today's race) also - Cantlow just gave a little cough this morning and we had him primed for his run. He'll go straight to Cheltenham and he loves it there and the drier ground suits him too.

“We're happy, it's job done, and we'll freshen them up now and maybe have a couple of days to the seaside and things.”
 
Seems to be plenty of positive vibes for COC.
 
Geordieboy83 said:
Seems to be plenty of positive vibes for COC.
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I would just like to hear that he's been/will be doing some schooling round the banks prior to Cheltenham. Anyone heard anything? Is he going to Cheltenham the weekend of the sales like last year for a run around?
 
I’d still have JO ahead of Auvergnat, who was again being given weight in this, only 2lbs but in a race like this I think that’s a big 2lbs and off level weights like at Chelt JO would beat him
 
The Cheltenham sales take place this Thursday (15th) so you'd expect to hear something on twitter etc if he does come over. I'd be shocked if they aren't looking at doing it again, particularly as he won't have been round the course this season.

Now it wouldn't be enough to make me reconsider but It'll also be worth seeing how bullish Elliott and the team are on Cause of Causes between now and the festival. Every year in the weeks before Elliott has spoken how well the horse is doing and how he's come to life in the Spring and with Jamie Codd onboard etc. You'd be hopeful there are similar vibes once again. It'll be even more interesting on how well Elliott speaks of Tiger Roll's chances at the same time.

On the race today - I'd be taking out Josies Orders from the pair as well but I do think there's very little in it. I had the impression he just wasn't quite the same horse after the injury but those quotes from Bolger about taking an age to get fit could explain that. I have too many concerns about Auvergnat for me to side with him. A decent 4th in this last year but and Unseat and Fall in his other 2 trips around the course would put me off.

For every reason why i'd be backing Tiger Roll, the exact same can be said of Cause of Causes who has the added benefit of 'been there and done it' so although I like the horse, i'm more than happy to have only the one play in this race with Cause of Causes.
 
Hurricane fly said:
I’d still have JO ahead of Auvergnat, who was again being given weight in this, only 2lbs but in a race like this I think that’s a big 2lbs and off level weights like at Chelt JO would beat him
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I've always been of the view that weights are irrelevant in this, they hunt for 3 miles and the obstacles come thick and fast with so many twists, turns and undulations they only really hit racing speed when they come out onto the course proper.
Of course you'd rather be carrying a lower weight but a few pounds doesn't influence the race.
Just my view...
 
If anything the quickness of the obstacles and the amount of them are what makes me think the weights even more important
 
Hurricane fly said:
I’d still have JO ahead of Auvergnat, who was again being given weight in this, only 2lbs but in a race like this I think that’s a big 2lbs and off level weights like at Chelt JO would beat him
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I could be wrong
But I think Donal Mcinerney claimed 5lb aswell
Which would make a 7 lb swing
 
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