Cross Country Chase 2018

[BigChaang]

He might not be a spring festival specialist...but Tiger Roll has won at Cheltenham twice at the festival. There aren't too many horses in training that can say that.

CoC hasn't been seen and is 3/1 (NRNB)...Tiger Roll is 10/1...

Personally I'm covering both.

I have done the same G.S. , just that niggling thought ......

 

[Leman14]

Just looking back at my AP bets.... I knew that I had gone big on Cause Of Causes, BUT I didn't realise quite HOW big!

2pts @ 8/1
2pts @ 7/1
7pts @ 6/1
8pts @ 5/1
4pts @ 9/2

23pts staked (none of which are NRNB!) potential returns of 153 pts... (not to mention multiples..)

Total outlay for the entire festival is currently 200 pts.

I am sure that I am not alone, but god, do I need a run for my money!

 

[Scooby91]

Just looking back at my AP bets.... I knew that I had gone big on Cause Of Causes, BUT I didn't realise quite HOW big!

2pts @ 8/1
2pts @ 7/1
7pts @ 6/1
8pts @ 5/1
4pts @ 9/2

23pts staked (none of which are NRNB!) potential returns of 153 pts... (not to mention multiples..)

Total outlay for the entire festival is currently 200 pts.

I am sure that I am not alone, but god, do I need a run for my money!

I see no reason why he wouldn't run. But your a brave man having 23pts and over 10% of your total outlay on 1 horse in the cross country.

 

[Leman14]

I see no reason why he wouldn't run. But your a brave man having 23pts and over 10% of your total outlay on 1 horse in the cross country.

To be fair, a large amount of my "outlay" for the festival that is Free Bets (75/25 in favour of Free Bets) BUT just easier to lump it all together when calculating the relative success of reading form and potential targets.

Cash outlay is more like 50 points devilish - but I measure success based on overall pts.
If I "win" back 150 pts - I'll be in profit (cash wise) BUT technically, my decisions won't have been good enough (if that makes sense?!?)

 

[charlie]

I would cover with Tiger Roll Lenman

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Do you not have a maximum bet in your staking plan Leman?

As Scooby points out, your staking does seem to be away from the norm.

 

[Leman14]

I Have loads covered in Any Race market and each time I looked for “value”, I kept coming back to CoC.
With the vast majority of that outlay being Free Bets, it’s a chance I’m willing to take.
The target is/was all but guaranteed early season, so barring injury - I’ll get a run.

Others may have large stakes on novices that end up in the “wrong” race.

If he doesn’t line up, then so be it.

 

[Scooby91]

Anybody heard anything on auvergnat? After his fall.

 

[Kevloaf]

I Have loads covered in Any Race market and each time I looked for “value”, I kept coming back to CoC.
With the vast majority of that outlay being Free Bets, it’s a chance I’m willing to take.
The target is/was all but guaranteed early season, so barring injury - I’ll get a run.

Others may have large stakes on novices that end up in the “wrong” race.

If he doesn’t line up, then so be it.

My max is 10 pts.

10 pts Finian's Oscar - Arkle 16/1
10 pts CoC - Cross Country 9/1

I'd swap my 10 pts on FO now but I made a calculated risk outside of the normal "will he run" on FO as was wrong...

In single bets I've staked 460 pts, so 10 on FO is only 4.6%

IN your defense, CoC will power clear after that final hedge thing.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I Have loads covered in Any Race market and each time I looked for “value”, I kept coming back to CoC.
With the vast majority of that outlay being Free Bets, it’s a chance I’m willing to take.
The target is/was all but guaranteed early season, so barring injury - I’ll get a run.

Others may have large stakes on novices that end up in the “wrong” race.

If he doesn’t line up, then so be it.

I'm not having a pop mate just interested in different approaches.

You'll be on some high if CoC gets his head in front:very_drunk:

 

[Scooby91]

My max is 10 pts.

10 pts Finian's Oscar - Arkle 16/1
10 pts CoC - Cross Country 9/1

I'd swap my 10 pts on FO now but I made a calculated risk outside of the normal "will he run" on FO as was wrong...

In single bets I've staked 460 pts, so 10 on FO is only 4.6%

IN your defense, CoC will power clear after that final hedge thing.

Is your average bet 1 pt I'm assuming kev?

Because 1 pt is a solid bet to me and my average stake outside of the festival. And 10pts is a huge ammount. Without going into sums.

 

[Leman14]

I'm not having a pop mate just interested in different approaches.

You'll be on some high if CoC gets his head in front:very_drunk:

Not taken that way
I’ve paid the price is recent years, by not backing my strong fancies enough and “wasting” pts elsewhere.
Not something I do regularly, but IF he lines up - there will be butterflies!!!

 

[BigChaang]

I'm not having a pop mate just interested in different approaches.

You'll be on some high if CoC gets his head in front:very_drunk:

If he does Leman , I'll be waiting for you in the Quvega bar !!!!!!!.

 

[Kevloaf]

Is your average bet 1 pt I'm assuming kev?

Because 1 pt is a solid bet to me and my average stake outside of the festival. And 10pts is a huge ammount. Without going into sums.

I'd say the average is probably over 2 pts (which in theory is why I should have changed my "pts to £££ ratio" at the start of the season to be 1 pt as 2 pts now (if that makes sense) as I rarely would bet less than 2 pts on anything

For example, the 10 pts on FO should actually realistically be 5 pts.

I suppose I use a 10 pt scale, and most people use 1-5?

 

[Scooby91]

I'd say the average is probably over 2 pts (which in theory is why I should have changed my "pts to £££ ratio" at the start of the season to be 1 pt as 2 pts now (if that makes sense) as I rarely would bet less than 2 pts on anything

For example, the 10 pts on FO should actually realistically be 5 pts.

I suppose I use a 10 pt scale, and most people use 1-5?

I'd say the average is probably over 2 pts (which in theory is why I should have changed my "pts to £££ ratio" at the start of the season to be 1 pt as 2 pts now (if that makes sense) as I rarely would bet less than 2 pts on anything

For example, the 10 pts on FO should actually realistically be 5 pts.

I suppose I use a 10 pt scale, and most people use 1-5?

That does make sense.
I don't really have a scale. But my average bet with the books is 1pt or 1pt ew. And any more I have to have serious conviction which would be the quick price after the race when theyre impressive and the same price is still available briefly.

 

[Leman14]

I suppose I use a 10 pt scale, and most people use 1-5?

I seem to be using a 23pt scale with Cause Of Causes!!!:highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

I seem to be using a 23pt scale with Cause Of Causes!!!:highly_amused:

I used a 100.5 pt scale when Frankel was running :highly_amused:

 

[Liammet]

Anyone got any concerns about the effects of a hard race in the national will have on cause of causes ?
I know from stats winners of the national struggle to win another race,not sure about placed horses
The horse is 10 now and has not seen a racecourse since
I don't think the race at loepardstown will be that informative either
Not that many miles on the clock but reminds me of on the fringe in the Foxhunters last year
Hope I am wrong as a lot of you seem knee deep in the horse this year

 

[charlie]

Anyone got any concerns about the effects of a hard race in the national will have on cause of causes ?
I know from stats winners of the national struggle to win another race,not sure about placed horses
The horse is 10 now and has not seen a racecourse since
I don't think the race at loepardstown will be that informative either
Not that many miles on the clock but reminds me of on the fringe in the Foxhunters last year
Hope I am wrong as a lot of you seem knee deep in the horse this year

That's why, if I were you, I would be covering with Tiger Roll 12/1 NRNB. He is 8 and the above concerns do not apply.

 

[Vautour]

I wouldn’t be too concerned. Amberleigh house was 3rd in the national and won it the next year. Hedge hunter won and came second in the gold cup the next year. Alvarado placed in it 4 times in recent years. He would already have been out this year but for having a temperature. I should add that the specific plan was to race him lightly so he is perfect for a spring campaign.

However I am well past knee deep, balls deep, shoulder deep on CoC so cant have anything bad said about his chances!