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Cheltenham Festival Handicaps

Mall Dini has already got a chase mark of 142 in Ireland so even the handicapper there has caught him. That is 3lb higher than his winning mark in the Pertemps. Phil Smith usually adds between 5-7lb on average so he'll be close to 150 I reckon. That will rule him out of the Kim Muir as he'll be above the ceiling. Seems like the plot may have been busted already.
 
I think Mall dini will get between his Irish mark of 142 and 145, I cant see how Phil can justify any higher. On Chapmans show hes always very good at explaining why he came to the decisions he has, even if people don't agree with it. I don't see how he could justify 150 looks too high and I reckon 142-145. The 145 is his hurdle mark id imagine he would of had for winning the Pertemps. But I could be worong
 
billymag said:
I think Mall dini will get between his Irish mark of 142 and 145, I cant see how Phil can justify any higher. On Chapmans show hes always very good at explaining why he came to the decisions he has, even if people don't agree with it. I don't see how he could justify 150 looks too high and I reckon 142-145. The 145 is his hurdle mark id imagine he would of had for winning the Pertemps. But I could be worong
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The main problem here is that there is no consistency to how much Phil Smith increases the Irish Horses marks. Sometimes he barely changes them and other times it's close to a stone. I certainly would not want to risk a bet on the Kim Muir with a ceiling of 145 without the NR concession.
 
His Pertemps mark was 139. He'll be much closer to 150 than 140 imo. I can't imagine Phil Smith will leave him on his Irish mark, considering he is already a festival handicap winner.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
The main problem here is that there is no consistency to how much Phil Smith increases the Irish Horses marks. Sometimes he barely changes them and other times it's close to a stone. I certainly would not want to risk a bet on the Kim Muir with a ceiling of 145 without the NR concession.
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Completely agree with that point, at times it seems he just adds an arbitrary number to the Irish horses to stop them having a chance. Mall Dini won the Pertemps of 139 last year, so I'd be surprised if he gives it a mark under 145.
 
HardyEustace said:
Completely agree with that point, at times it seems he just adds an arbitrary number to the Irish horses to stop them having a chance. Mall Dini won the Pertemps of 139 last year, so I'd be surprised if he gives it a mark under 145.
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One thing I do agree on is that Phil Smith has to make the increases and it's not to stop the Irish horses having a chance. There seems to be a massive disparity in the ratings systems in Ireland and UK and if he made no changes, the UK horses would never win a handicap at Cheltenham. Even with the increases Phil Smith makes, the Irish still bag more than their fair share of handicap races so it just highlights that the two handicap systems are not aligned.
 
Would anyone be able to put a me a quick list together of the mark range for each handicap?
 
I cant have COI for any of the handicaps after his latest exploits. The 4 miler looks too short for such a plodder imo.
 
Close brothers is 0-140, Kim Muir and the Martin Pipe are 0-145, everything else are open handicaps.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
That's how I see it too
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The danger with Pipe is you never know if the horse is slow or being plotted. He's a master at handicapping a horse and it would not surprise me if COI suddenly springs back to life at Cheltenham once the headgear is back on. On visual performances I'd totally agree the 4 miler looks the best option but you can't always take what you see with his horses as being the truth.
 
Didn't they pay a fortune for COI?

They'll need to win a few handicaps to get that money back.
 
Campeador injured
Out for season
 
Liammet said:
Campeador injured
Out for season
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I think Mr Smith had already scuppered his chances. He should have a good handicap in him in Ireland if he can conquer those last flight nerves.
 
Huge news that, Campeador was starting to get mentions at every turn....
 
I have a feeling about Rock the Kasbah winning one of the handicaps this year. Anyone able to hazard a guess which is most likely for him to enter? I see he's in the Brown Advisory betting
 
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