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Champion Bumper 2020

365 in to 5/6
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Ferny Hollow has opened up 5/4 with Bet365 lads!

Surely that is absolutely huge!
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I wouldn't like to be your girlfriend...

Your definition of huge doesn't quite measure up :p
 
Kevloaf said:
I wouldn't like to be your girlfriend...

Your definition of huge doesn't quite measure up :p
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Ha - well played. :highly_amused:

Harry Findlay once said in his book that ‘the common gambler is scared of getting involved on short price favourites because it’s hard to make big money. However, if you think there’s a 1/3 poke at 4/6, the value is huge’. I predict Ferny Hollow is punted off the boards tomorrow and wins doing handstands at somewhere between 4/9 and 1/3.

Maybe it is just me but that 5/4 is a massive price. It suggests he has less than 50% chance of winning! I think that is wrong so I’ve backed him accordingly.

If I win, great. If I lose, at least I’ve posted it on here and we can look back and laugh.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Ha - well played. :highly_amused:

Harry Findlay once said in his book that ‘the common gambler is scared of getting involved on short price favourites because it’s hard to make big money. However, if you think there’s a 1/3 poke at 4/6, the value is huge’. I predict Ferny Hollow is punted off the boards tomorrow and wins doing handstands at somewhere between 4/9 and 1/3.

Maybe it is just me but that 5/4 is a massive price. It suggests he has less than 50% chance of winning! I think that is wrong so I’ve backed him accordingly.

If I win, great. If I lose, at least I’ve posted it on here and we can look back and laugh.
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He could win it easily. However backing a horse that short, when you've not the slightest idea how good the opposition is, is not a long term way to success.
 
Scooby91 said:
He could win it easily. However backing a horse that short, when you've not the slightest idea how good the opposition is, is not a long term way to success.
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took the words out of my mouth.

FFS, Mom, it's a bumper.
But I hope you're right.
 
Wide Receiver is rumored to be Gordon’s bumper tool this year. He was entered up but I’m sure he didn’t want to meet Willie’s hot pot this soon in the season!

FH into 16/1 across the board...
 
Jesus MOM I’m sorry but complete guesser from the above comes to mind. Might well win, but as scooby says, long term that won’t work
 
quevega said:
took the words out of my mouth.

FFS, Mom, it's a bumper.
But I hope you're right.
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I can’t actually remember the last time I backed a horse in a bumper tbh - possibly Son of Camas at the Punchestown festival when he got beat (and ironically has won twice when I’ve not backed him since).

But I genuinely think the 5/4 was a gift. The talk for this horse has been enough to have me expecting big things. We will see..
 
Scooby91 said:
He could win it easily. However backing a horse that short, when you've not the slightest idea how good the opposition is, is not a long term way to success.
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I would probably agree backing horses relatively blind in bumpers is not a long term strategy but as I have just said in the above post, I haven’t actually backed one in a bumper this season before this.

I would say this race and horse is an exception to my rule rather than a long-term betting strategy. That long-term strategy is having its best season profit wise to date so far so perhaps I ought to have stuck to ignoring the bumpers but I really do think Ferny Hollow is going to be very much above average. At the very least, he ought to have been marginally odds on based on the recent talk alone - let alone the fact he’s been spoken about for many months almost everywhere.

Nobody will be surprised to hear I’ve had 1.5 points on him this afternoon for the Bumper in March at 20/1. Perhaps I’ll let my inner Elegantly Tasted our and declare that Ferny Hollow is the one.. :highly_amused:
 
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As said on a diff thread work is manic around this time of year so not watching much racing and just having little bets on the late/night racing. I also have had a bit on FH for the champ bumper after reading ET's post.Thinks it was more to do with money sat in 365 account and bored as she had Strictly on :highly_amused:
 
From 9/11 #35

archie said:
There's always the exception to prove the rule but I'd say that this was very early for Willie to be getting out his main hopes in the Champion Bumper.
Last season, Blue Sari didn't appear until 24 January and the season before it was
14/1 Tornado Flyer
27/12 Carefully Selected
13/1 Relegate
26/12 Blackbow
16/12 Colreevy
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Most trainers are creatures of habit and, although it's now just early rather than very early, it would be unusual for Willie to plan this sort of campaign for his best bumper horse.
 
archie said:
From 9/11 #35



Most trainers are creatures of habit and, although it's now just early rather than very early, it would be unusual for Willie to plan this sort of campaign for his best bumper horse.
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Last years weather and not running a lot of his bumpers might have something to do with it.
 
archie said:
From 9/11 #35



Most trainers are creatures of habit and, although it's now just early rather than very early, it would be unusual for Willie to plan this sort of campaign for his best bumper horse.
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After last years weather. Habit or not.
I'd say Willie's intelligent enough to get them out when he can (if fit)
 
It was the previous season not just last season that the figures covered. I'm happy for someone else to go through the last ten years but our bumper horse came back in to pre-training later than the hurdlers with an eye on the Christmas meetings.
 
archie said:
It was the previous season not just last season that the figures covered. I'm happy for someone else to go through the last ten years but our bumper horse came back in to pre-training later than the hurdlers with an eye on the Christmas meetings.
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I'm hoping power of pause is the one for down royal. Time will tell.
 
I don’t think it was a great ride particularly from Patrick Mullins but no excuses here from me.

You win some, you lose some. We go again.
 
I missed the race, how was ferny hollow?.....Bet365 have kept the price at 14/1 still, is it worth cashing out now?
 
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