I have taken a look at the horses that placed and whether they ran at Cheltenham or not over the past 3 runnings at Aintree, I did similar for trials day before we lost it and know some people find it useful so thought I'd share this again if it may be of use for some people!
Manifesto 2m 4f Nov Chase
2017
1st - Flying Angel - 6th JLT
2nd - Cloudy Dream - 2nd Arkle
3rd - Top Notch - 2nd JLT
2018
1st - Finian's Oscar - 5th JLT
2nd - Rene's Oscar - No Fest Run
3rd - Calino D'airy - No Fest Run
2019
1st - Kalashnikov - UR Arkle
2nd - La Baue Au Roi - No Fest Run
3rd - Mengli Khan - 3rd JLT
No shock here that JLT runners come to this, interestingly it seems that those lower placed perform okay, I'm assuming this is probably due to the liklihood of the JLT winners not coming here and potentailly those horse's being better suited by Aintree's flatter nature, but no one in this years field had a poor run at the festival. Fusil is rightly favourite for Thursday based on his 2nd in the Marsh but a couple have stepped up in trip from the arkle and taken 1st & 2nd respectively and that for me may be a big plus for Eldorado Allen who stayed on well for his Arkle 2nd and the form behind Shishkin can only be a plus.
Juvenile 2m Hurdle
2017
1st- Defi Du Seuil - 1st Triumph
2nd - Divin Bere - 2nd Boodles
3rd - Bedrock - No Fest Run
2018
1st - We Have A Dream - No Fest Run
2nd - Gumball - PU Triumph
3rd - Apple's Shakira - 4th Triumph
2019
1st - Pentland Hills - 1st Triumph
2nd - Fakir D'oudairies - 4th Supreme
3rd - Christopher Wood - No Fest Run
The best juveniles tend to come to the top yet again with Cheltenham form carrying across. This would place Adagio at the top of
the pile using that, however Monmiral on raw form has 5L or so on him if you look at their respective results across the season
against Nassalam at face value. Either way I would expect the winner to come from them 2.
Betway Bowl 3m Chase
2017
1st - Tea For Two - UR Gold Cup
2nd - Cue Card - F Gold Cup
3rd - Smad Place - 8th Gold Cup
2018
1st - Might Bite - 2nd Gold Cup
2nd - Bristol De Mai - No Fest Run
3rd - Clan Des Obeaux - No Fest Run
2019
1st - Kemboy - UR Gold Cup
2nd - Clan Des Obeaux - 5th Gold Cup
3rd - Balko Des Flos - 7th Ryanair
Many ways to look at this one but starting with a fact not covered by the top 3 shown above; 2017 & 2019 all runners came from Cheltenham Festival. So it then makes Bristol & Obeaux's runs in 2018 stand out and suggest that those fresh from avoiding the Festival mayhem may be good for this race. This doesn't provide much value in Clan Des Obeaux's case with him being favourite, but Waiting Patiently is another who skipped the festival who may well then be worth a look. Personally I feel he is a touch too skinny as 5s, I've never been a huge fan of his but his run in the King George shows he can get 3m (even if Frodon did lead a merry dance during that) and he had 6L on Clan round Kempton. Much may depend on how much pace is in the race, so maybe on whether Native River can bowl along at the front (shit pun intended). His 4th in the GC does fit the trends of lower in GC, I would loose my mind if he won this but lets be realistic 3m round Aintree on good ground it's all going against him. The really interesting thing that shows here is that you want those who were way off the pace in the Gold Cup that are better suited to Aintree, Aso in theory would be that back with a flatter 3m but his course form is far from inspiring and is priced as he should be. One coming off the back of a disappointing festival for me is Mister Fisher at 9/1. He wasn't jumping too bad early on but Allaho justs killed everyone in that field with his pace and electric jumping which saw the Fish make a few mistakes before leading to being pulled up. He may well be the best e/w bet of those coming from the festival with ground to suit and no Allaho to disrupt the flow, Native may well give him a target to sit behind and if his jumping holds up alongside my favourite warrior then he may go close with a flat 3 miles and will be one I may have to have onside. Tiger Roll obviously doesn't have any past cheese hoppers to compare to but it would be ultimate O'Leary shithousery to win this.
Aintree 2m 4f Hurdle
2017
1st - Buveur D'air - 1st Champion Hurdle
2nd - My Tent Or Yours - 2nd Champion Hurdle
3rd - The New One - 5th Champion Hurdle
2018
1st - L'Ami Serge - 8th Stayers Hurdle
2nd - Supasundae - 2nd Stayers Hurdle
3rd - Clyne - No Fest Run
2019
1st - Supasundae - 7th Stayers Hurdle
2nd - Buveur D'Air - F Champion Hurdle
3rd - Ch'tibello - 1st County Hurdle
First look theres an interesting record of those coming from the Stayers Hurdle to this race, but it may well be that those horses were better suited by the intermediate trip. There is no one who fits this coming down in trip from the festival but there are a few who come from the fest. Of those Buzz doesnt have the handicap win you would suspect you need to come close here. The best form of the Champion Hurdle sits with Not So Sleepy who for me isn't good enough he seemed to cling on to take his 5th last month and not sure if the step up will help personally, but at a range of 20-33/1 wouldn't knock anyone chancing him e/w in a race where I know 4 places are about. Silver Streak was only just behind him but his one try at this trip hasn't painted him in glory at all. Abacadabras comes off the back of a fall and could well be the classiest horse from Cheltenham for me, which seems to certainly rise to the top in this, with step up in trip setting to suit he should go close.
Interestingly a stat again not shown is the one of those who have no festival run. At the moment they are 0/7 for places in the top 3 over the last 3 years. However in all fairness none of those 7 runners have the form lines that some of those bring into this race who skipped March. There are big players that may well break that stat, with McFabulous and Brewin'upastorm clashing again after the laters 5.5L win at Fontwell around 5/6 weeks ago. However McFabulous did concede 6lb that day so that may well make a difference Brewin seems to have renewed life in his hurdling career since coming back from Chasing, with 2 impressive wins. Both horses hold interesting Aintree form with Brewin taking 2nd in Mersey Novices Hurdle in 2019 & McFabulous winning the bumper the same year. The market has them around the same price initially but the younger of the 2 has been more fancied in McFab. As good as these 2 are if anyone cares where I'm looking it will be the other British horse who skipped Chelts for this, Song For Someone. The 9/1 available seems far too big for me for a horse that continues to improve all season and has had this as a long term target since before Christmas. He has plenty of positives which mean I'm willing to forgive his defeat to Goshen in what was quite tough ground.
Of those not mentioned Jason The Militant and Buevuer D'Air probably deserve a mention. BDA has proven his form in this and could be too big at 11/1 if he still retains his ability which there certainly were glimpses of at Haydock during his comeback 2nd. Jason has Rachel onboard which will no doubt see casual punters plough into him now they have finally seen how good the Queen of racing is after years of having Bryony touted as the 2nd coming of AP by ITV, but thats a different story. His form is very nice to look at and has him in and around the top of the Irish 2m hurdling division but to be honest his price seems a little skinny being around 5/1 at most places seeing as he tends to be stayed past at the finishing post earlier in the season.
Foxhunters Chase 2m 5f
*Runners obviously either ran in the festival Foxhunter chase or didn't so position is from Chelts if they did
2017
1st - Dineur - No Fest Run
2nd - Balnaslow - 5th
3rd - Big Fella Thanks - No Fest Run
4th - Pacha Du Polder - 1st
5th - Mendip Express - 9th
2018
*1st DSQ after so all technically bumped up 1 place
1st - Balnaslow - 7th
2nd - Bears Affair - No Fest Run
3rd - Greensalt - No Fest Run
4th - Barrakilla - No Fest Run
5th - On The Fringe - 9th
2019
1st - Top Wood - 3rd
2nd - Burning Ambition - No Fest Run
3rd - Road To Riches - No Fest Run
4th - Coastal Tiep - PU
5th - Road To Rome - 4th
Looked at top 5 here due to place terms an general field sizes. Bit of a mixed bag, no surprise really as this race if 7f shorter than its Festival counterpart. This suggests
that some can come on from the fest to run well, with Billaway the obvious favourite having claims, of the other 3 who ran at cheltenham Latenightpass certainly seems to tick boxes for this with the last 2 horses who were past the post first running respectably at the festival themselves, and him arguably not quite seeing out the distance could be a good e/w alternative to Billaway at 10/1. Only 3 who have placed were under the age of 10 so that may go against the 2 previously mentioned here.7/15 places were to those who skipped the festival so plenty to pick from in this field to fit that. Too many to run through here but the obvious route to go down now we have Amateurs back in the saddle is to focus on the big 3 amateur jocks, here are their form in this race below:
Mullins PU
Codd PU F PU
O'Connor 212
Surprisingly Codd has a very poor record last 3 years, and it looks like O'Connor is the king of the national course, with this in mind I will probably be chancing the 25/1 available for his mount of Federici, as horse who is proven to get these fences with a good pilot on board, seems worth a dabble! Caution should be stressed as Federici is likely not quite the levels of his previous rides in this but it certainly seems too big all the same to me.
Red Rum 2m Handicap Chase
2017
1st - Double W's - 9th Brown Plate (down 1lb)
2nd - Theinval - 3rd Annual (up 4lb)
3rd - Bun Doran - 6th Brown Plate (no change)
4th - Yorkist - No Fest Run
5th- Romain De Senam - No Fest Run
2018
1st - Bentelimar - No Fest Run
2nd - Theinval - 4th Annual (no change)
3rd - Gino Trail - 2nd Annual (up 1lb)
4th - Doitforthevillage - 6th Annual (no change)
5th - Bun Doran - No Fest Run
2019
1st - Moon Over Germany - No Fest Run
2nd - Lady Buttons - 4th Mares Hurdle
3rd - Champagne At Tara - 9th Annual (down 2lb)
4th - Adrrastos - No Fest Run
5th - Brelan D'As - 3rd Annual (up 2lb)
As above looked at top 5 again due to place terms and field size. Turns out 9 of the 15 who finished top 5 actually did have a run at the festival so taking that as something to focus on there are just 3 horses that fit this profile. The first of those is one I know people were keen on in the Annual, Zanza. He was pushed along early before pulling up after being hampered by a faller, he hasn't seen his mark changed so still comes here off 145. Personally I feel like he is well within the grasp of the handicapper and I won't be touching him, however in his favour he may well have needed the run as any break over 90 days his form read 6, PU, 4, PU, in fact his form for his 2nd run after that break is 1, 1, 2, so I wouldn't put you off him at 12/1 if you were a fan of his! Another of these options came from the Annual too, On The Slopes. Personally he is my main choice in this race, his 4th in the Annual is nice form and tends to match the profile of those who then do well in this race. His mark is untouched and the flatter nature of Aintree should hopefully suit this prominent runner and 8/1 with 5 places seems very worth taking. The other option from the festival is Sully D'oc who ran the Plate. On 2017 we saw 1st & 3rd come from the plate outside the top 5. His 8th suits that, and for me he was running okay early on, Richie did nudge him along just after 3 out so clearly wasn't happy and this drop back in trip may well suit him, 25/1 with 5 places tempts in, especially an outsider JP horse its always tempting in a handicap, with him also carrying under 11stone being a bonus.
Mares Bumper 2m 1f
Only 2 mares ran the bumper than this, Irish Roe in 2017 (20th bumper) coming 7th & The Glancing Queen (5th) winning it. So Elle Est Belle may have a chance. I think Eileendover could be very solid in this and tough to beat, however 4YO don't have the best record in recent years and Elle Est Belle does have course form along with cracking Festival form. The only angle I've found is that Alan King has 2nd & 1st in last 2 meetings. The win with Glancing Queen makes sense with her quality form, Midnightreferendum 2nd at 25/1, so may be worth watching Finest View one he has entered this year, her prep was just on the AW in a jumpers bumper with weight on her side, but visually won it well and quite easily so might be worth a go at 25/1 based on King's recent approach in this race for a placer at higher odds.
I think based on all of the above I'll be getting the following on side, still need to look and finalise any others but these lot I'll definately cover:
Eldorado Allen
Mister Fisher
Song For Someone, heart may win out and end up covering D'Air too
Latenightpass & Federici
On The Slopes & Sully D'oc
Finest View
Oh and obviously no prize's for guessing my inevitable bet on Native River
