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2026 Novice Hurdlers

The turners is looking like it could be one of the most competitive races of the week

Normally headed by a noticeable shortie, who has form to back it up. Also could be a big field so pace could well be very strong from the off

Might not be a typical renewal

Haven’t dug into the race yet, it’s next on my list, but I do think it’s a unusual one this year
 
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I do get the feeling if/when Mighty Park is confirmed going that way then he'll be smashed in. Short enough as it is but after the Faugheen comment I could see him going of 2/1 ish.
 
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Lobos said:
I do get the feeling if/when Mighty Park is confirmed going that way then he'll be smashed in. Short enough as it is but after the Faugheen comment I could see him going of 2/1 ish.
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He won't be that short, Impaire only went off 5/2
 
Any reason They Call Me Hugo has disappeared from the Flutter sites and the Exchange? Can't find anything anywhere.
 
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Speedy17 said:
Any reason They Call Me Hugo has disappeared from the Flutter sites and the Exchange? Can't find anything anywhere.
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Unfortunatley it looks like he must have been taken out of the race, I had a bit on him on exchange and its now showing the odds as "1" which is what happens when they have been removed.
 
Lobos said:
I do get the feeling if/when Mighty Park is confirmed going that way then he'll be smashed in. Short enough as it is but after the Faugheen comment I could see him going of 2/1 ish.
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So we have Faugheen vs Denman to look forward, going from the trainers comments lol
Really interesting race from a betting perspective, if folks dont like the top two in the market
One for the weekend I think, will get proper stuck into it
 
Lobos said:
I do get the feeling if/when Mighty Park is confirmed going that way then he'll be smashed in. Short enough as it is but after the Faugheen comment I could see him going of 2/1 ish.
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Has Mullins had a bang on the head? Faugheen had won five races prior to winning at the Festival. Mighty Park is already a ridiculous price. Amazing how many punters are so willing to buy into the hype. You would think on the day bookmakers would have more than enough opposition to want to get him.
 
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kinloch brae said:
Has Mullins had a bang on the head? Faugheen had won five races prior to winning at the Festival. Mighty Park is already a ridiculous price. Amazing how many punters are so willing to buy into the hype. You would think on the day bookmakers would have more than enough opposition to want to get him.
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As someone on the big MP prices before his maiden i hope the money continues to pile into him. Hes my only current bet in race but the ones below him in the market will be great ew cover on the day at nice prices. When i done the bet i fully expected him to get another race in before the Turners so the prep is far from ideal. AOI and Ballyfad look like great ew value depending on the ground.
 
kinloch brae said:
Has Mullins had a bang on the head? Faugheen had won five races prior to winning at the Festival. Mighty Park is already a ridiculous price. Amazing how many punters are so willing to buy into the hype. You would think on the day bookmakers would have more than enough opposition to want to get him.
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I tend to agree although playing devils advocate Faugheen improved 10 pounds from 1st to second run. Similar improvement from mighty park has him eclipsing Faugheens Neptune run. Plenty have believed Willie has had a bang on the head before only to discover his heads made of titanium.

Would be interesting to know what the average improvement for a graded Willie novice is from run one to two. I suspect less than 10 pounds but would also be interesting to know what percentage do improve by 10+ pounds.

Doing it at the festival in what looks like a competitive heat is another matter of course.
 
The horse I keep coming back to for the Turners is Shuttle Diplomacy.

The key form line is with Rasko and how you rate his runs this season.

Xmas debut was at a time when Willie's were generally poor but he looked good - would he have been even better if Willie's were fully firing - maybe not - there are always horses that defy otherwise poor stable form. In this race, Shuttle ran well but ultimately came up a couple of lengths short, but, significantly, was giving Rasko 8lbs.

Rasko then represented Mullins in the Grade One at DRF as Paul's ride. Willie later claimed he perhaps wasn't race fit which seems strange. Not Willie's MO to have a horse represent him at that level if they aren't ready. Perhaps Willie is slightly clutching at straws for an underwhelming bunch of novice hurdlers. Shuttle's subsequent run was a very impressive win at Naas. Really seemed to step forward from the Xmas run.

My thinking is along the lines of: Rasko won narrowly at Xmas in receipt of 8lbs. If both horses showed a similar level of improvement, where would that have put Shuttle if he'd run in the DRF race? Could easily argue he'd have been bang in the mix. In that case the price discrepancy between Shuttle (25/1) and the three DRF protagonists (all sub 8/1) is way too big.

Would be interested in other people's thoughts?
 
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jrjr said:
My thinking is along the lines of: Rasko won narrowly at Xmas in receipt of 8lbs. If both horses showed a similar level of improvement, where would that have put Shuttle if he'd run in the DRF race?
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Shuttle Diplomacy had already ran twice prior to their encounter. It was Rasko's first run of the season where you could argue Mullin's horses were running a bit average. For me Rasko has more right to improve after their meeting.

Personally I'm not a massive fan of the horses profile coming into the race. Underwhelming when beat by Sortudo as well.
 
Not usually big on stats, but I thought it was worth looking at the Turner's winners from the outset - 1971.

If Mighty Park wins, he will be the most inexperienced winner in the history of the race. Three horses have won off the back of one hurdle win: 1985 ex-flat horse Asir; 2002 Galileo, who also had several runs on the flat, and 2008 Fiveforthree, who had three runs in bumpers.

It was pretty much standard to have four or more runs, but in more recent times that has dropped to three, and even two where Mullins has been involved. It appears that unfortunately, horses seem to be far more molly coddled than they used to be.

Against that the Graded novice hurdles, other than the DRF two-mile race, have not looked anything special. So you are left guessing as to how good the remaining maiden and novice races have been.
 
Just watched the Kempton gallop thing, There's a bit when Old Park Star is walking round , the customery slo mo edit they do these days, not often I'd say this but he looks so well in his skin, fit as a flea, bit of rib on show & muscles everywhere you want them, if he races as good as he looks atm he's going to take some stopping.

Edit - I will add he does need another year to fill his frame properly though, in great condition but when he steps into chasing he'll need a bit more about him.
 
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Patrick...

I think Sober is overpriced in the Supreme. He has high-class Flat form and while his jumping needs to brush up, it will. It looks a red-hot Supreme this year but he is a Group winner on the Flat, he is two from two over hurdles and he has Montjeu as his grandsire. What’s not to like?
 
Lobos said:
Patrick...

I think Sober is overpriced in the Supreme. He has high-class Flat form and while his jumping needs to brush up, it will. It looks a red-hot Supreme this year but he is a Group winner on the Flat, he is two from two over hurdles and he has Montjeu as his grandsire. What’s not to like?
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That's his Supreme ride sorted then!
 
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