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2026 Novice Chasers

Carnage at Taunton said:
If you do manage to find something that you think can beat him, do me a favour and let me know?
I’d be careful how much cash you part with in your quest though.
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I’m sorry 😂 but love a challenge. Taking him on all day long. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong 😊
 
SeanRock said:
The only way she’ll be reverting back to hurdles is if she’s a lucky winner or beaten on Sunday which isn’t likely barring a fall. She was impressive at Limerick last time out despite conditions being in The Big Westerner’s favour.

It’s not too much of a stretch to think she’ll be single figures again for Mares Chase if she wins cozily? And if Spindleberry’s owners get their way with a tilt at the Gold Cup she’ll be PT’s mount. I think the 25/1 currently available is worth the risk.
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I hope she wins well. Unlike most, I actually like the mares chase (it’s done me well in the past) throw her in the mixer.
 
I think that Willies got little in the way of graded open hurdles players at the festival, bar Lossiemouth.
I just think that he’d look a complete turd if he didn’t send her to churdle if she won at DRF. And if you believe she’ll win in a fortnight then 13/2 is a gift for churdle, win or each way as you wish
 
Guinness Village said:
I think that Willies got little in the way of graded open hurdles players at the festival, bar Lossiemouth.
I just think that he’d look a complete turd if he didn’t send her to churdle if she won at DRF. And if you believe she’ll win in a fortnight then 13/2 is a gift for churdle, win or each way as you wish
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1,000,000,000%
 
Eggs said:
…W Mullins re Jade;

Her run at Christmas when second to The Big Westerner puts her in here with a right chance and I decided to go down the novice chase route rather than the beginners’ one which gives us the option of possibly going back over hurdles later in the season if things don’t work out, and possibly keeping her novice status for next year.

But I feel with the improvement since the last run she will be very competitive in this field.
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A few points from Willies note;

1) am I reading the above correctly in that if you run in a ‘beginners chase’ then whether you win or not, you automatically lose your novice status for the following year ? - that appears to be the implication.

2) so we now know what Willie thinks ‘very competitive’ means…..it’s where you have around a 20lb rating advantage to the rest of the field!😂 (based upon Sundays race in which she is 1/5 to win)

3) why would Willie mention ‘reverting to hurdles’ or even contemplate it, when JDG appears to have jumped well on her two novice chases this season, the last when just being beaten by a horse highly thought of and who is third fav for this seasons BANC?….also when she is a 1/5 shot to win her first chase of the season on Sunday?

Something just seems ‘afoot’ here as JDG shouldn’t be 25/1 for the Mares Chase IMO unless you have a very strong view (or intel) that says that she is very unlikely to run in the Mares Chase at this years festival……why…..well she was due to go chasing last season (9/1 AP to win the Mares Chase early doors) before a small injury that meant she had an interrupted season which resulted in the decision to stay hurdling……she beat all bar Lossiemouth in last years Mares Hurdle at the festival and was third to Golden Ace and BDA in the previous years Mares novice hurdle at the festival……she also trounced Spindleberry over hurdles beforehand……an impressive CV from a graded Mare starting a novice chase campaign. If converting her hurdle rating to fences then she has nothing to fear from most in the Mares Chase betting and if showing a few pounds improvement then none bar maybe, Dinoblue

If you say her first run this year was poor, given how far she was beaten by Kala Conti, who she should have beaten easily based upon hurdles form for both, then wasn’t it at a time where we were saying that Willies looked to be needing their first runs ? Also the same Kala Conti who went on to beat Kargese and is now being talked about as a live contender for a few different chases at the festival this season.

Her second run appeared much better and she looked the winner before the last, maybe just being outstayed by the TBW?…..TBW whose form ties in with JDS, which before his last run in heavy ground, looked the best staying novice chase form at the time bar Final Demand?

Do the layers think her race at the festival could be dependent upon whether Lossiemouth runs in the CH…..is that what a part of the 25/1 price to win the Mares Chase is, rather than form?

Unless she going to be one horse that doesn’t at least match their hurdle rating over fences, or we are being ‘put away’, then she should be half the price she is in the Mares Chase and most certainly not 5/1 to finish second or third, which she effectively is at 25/1.

However I am reluctant to go in again as I have in the back of my mind that ‘reverting’ could still be the number one option for Willie and in turn her festival target, irrespective of Sundays win, as he did initially say at the end of last season that he might keep her hurdling this year and there was the ‘one of either JDG and Kargese would stay hurdling’ in this years stable tours info…..yet that was cobblers as both have run in two novice chases so far this season! 😂 …..so maybe ‘reverting’ could also be cobblers !😂

This Cheltenham AP game is hard enough without the contradicting trainer info we get from a few trainers, so maybe it’s the opposite viewpoint to the trainer that sometimes offers the value, although with it additional risk 🤔
 
Wayward Lad said:
A few points from Willies note;

1) am I reading the above correctly in that if you run in a ‘beginners chase’ then whether you win or not, you automatically lose your novice status for the following year ? - that appears to be the implication.

2) so we now know what Willie thinks ‘very competitive’ means…..it’s where you have around a 20lb rating advantage to the rest of the field!😂 (based upon Sundays race in which she is 1/5 to win)

3) why would Willie mention ‘reverting to hurdles’ or even contemplate it, when JDG appears to have jumped well on her two novice chases this season, the last when just being beaten by a horse highly thought of and who is third fav for this seasons BANC?….also when she is a 1/5 shot to win her first chase of the season on Sunday?

Something just seems ‘afoot’ here as JDG shouldn’t be 25/1 for the Mares Chase IMO unless you have a very strong view (or intel) that says that she is very unlikely to run in the Mares Chase at this years festival……why…..well she was due to go chasing last season (9/1 AP to win the Mares Chase early doors) before a small injury that meant she had an interrupted season which resulted in the decision to stay hurdling……she beat all bar Lossiemouth in last years Mares Hurdle at the festival and was third to Golden Ace and BDA in the previous years Mares novice hurdle at the festival……she also trounced Spindleberry over hurdles beforehand……an impressive CV from a graded Mare starting a novice chase campaign. If converting her hurdle rating to fences then she has nothing to fear from most in the Mares Chase betting and if showing a few pounds improvement then none bar maybe, Dinoblue

If you say her first run this year was poor, given how far she was beaten by Kala Conti, who she should have beaten easily based upon hurdles form for both, then wasn’t it at a time where we were saying that Willies looked to be needing their first runs ? Also the same Kala Conti who went on to beat Kargese and is now being talked about as a live contender for a few different chases at the festival this season.

Her second run appeared much better and she looked the winner before the last, maybe just being outstayed by the TBW?…..TBW whose form ties in with JDS, which before his last run in heavy ground, looked the best staying novice chase form at the time bar Final Demand?

Do the layers think her race at the festival could be dependent upon whether Lossiemouth runs in the CH…..is that what a part of the 25/1 price to win the Mares Chase is, rather than form?

Unless she going to be one horse that doesn’t at least match their hurdle rating over fences, or we are being ‘put away’, then she should be half the price she is in the Mares Chase and most certainly not 5/1 to finish second or third, which she effectively is at 25/1.

However I am reluctant to go in again as I have in the back of my mind that ‘reverting’ could still be the number one option for Willie and in turn her festival target, irrespective of Sundays win, as he did initially say at the end of last season that he might keep her hurdling this year and there was the ‘one of either JDG and Kargese would stay hurdling’ in this years stable tours info…..yet that was cobblers as both have run in two novice chases so far this season! 😂 …..so maybe ‘reverting’ could also be cobblers !😂

This Cheltenham AP game is hard enough without the contradicting trainer info we get from a few trainers, so maybe it’s the opposite viewpoint to the trainer that sometimes offers the value, although with it additional risk 🤔
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I am in the same boat as you. Backed early season, initially disappointed, then coming back around to the idea, and then considering going back in. Just can’t pull the trigger though for some reason….same niggling doubt (plus have lossie as a big winner or loser for the champion hurdle- potentially horrible related bet). Willie has bypassed this with many a novice chaser (despite winning it with one or two) and already has two darts (unless Spindleberry wins the thyestes). If she runs she has a cracking each way shout….although same could be said about the hurdle race 😰
 
"Do the layers think her race at the festival could be dependent upon whether Lossiemouth runs in the CH…..is that what a part of the 25/1 price to win the Mares Chase is, rather than form?"

Even as a mares chase backer i fully expect JDG to be lining up in the mares hurdle if lossie wins at the drf and goes champion

He has dinoblue and spindleberry for the mares chase if she goes for the hurdle

A race she finished 2nd in even with a poor prep last year
 
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Bang on the money FF. My thoughts entirely.



.......and Willies.
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
"Do the layers think her race at the festival could be dependent upon whether Lossiemouth runs in the CH…..is that what a part of the 25/1 price to win the Mares Chase is, rather than form?"

Even as a mares chase backer i fully expect JDG to be lining up in the mares hurdle if lossie wins at the drf and goes champion

He has dinoblue and spindleberry for the mares chase if she goes for the hurdle

A race she finished 2nd in even with a poor prep last year
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Thats where I am.

Convinced if Lossie wins Dublin she goes champion, and can see what Mullins is doing by entering all and sundry, If she proves she's the best he has then she earns a chance to go for it. And thats what he'll say "that she's earned the right"
The constant effort on some to lay her at 8 and 9 to one on the exchange is a slight worry though, as although only for small amounts it seems odd to me, and I keep biting with the odd fiver 😞 so its double whammy for some one, hopefully not me.

Then as long as he still has good ammo for the Mares chase still, he does not need to send the novice Jade du grugy to that race which looks potentially a hot race anyhow.

If you look at the whole mantra of send them to the race they think they can win, then Jade is not going to the right race, cos even if she bolts up against that bag of shite sunday she's behind several other likely runners on form. If lossie does not go mares hurdle then she goes there as second fav.

So running in the mares hurdle and then coming back next year would be something willie would be comfortable with for sure.
He did not run spindleberry last year and she had won her novice races perfectly well, and was not still a maiden after 2 runs.

In the mares chase there is every chance she has to face spindleberry, dinoblue, into the night, big westerner, kala conti, panic attack.
Even if only four turn up, she's fifth Fav.
There#s no wonder 25-1 is available.

I think willie is determined to prove a point to spindleberry's owner also, the latest entries look like he's giving her a chance but i think willie will probably want to be proven right here.
 
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Hes also done it before and won the race

Benie had 3 chase starts, then won the mares hurdle
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Hes also done it before and won the race

Benie had 3 chase starts, then won the mares hurdle
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Vrooum Vroum Mag also. Although she did take a hurdle race or 2 in before the mares, after being unbeaten in 6 or 7 chase starts prior to that and almost Fav for the ryanair.
Interesting stat on Vroum also.
In her first 13 starts for willie she won 12 of them and went off odds on every time.
My favourite win of hers was in the Punchestown champion hurdle when once again my "she's not got the pace for 2 miles merchants" mates were left red faced.
 
Lobos said:
Bang on the money FF. My thoughts entirely.



.......and Willies.
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Oh god, better add it to my singles that could both go down if lossie doesn’t go champion….only live once. It’s a shame the same the other related double (Gino/lossie) is too short for me to be interested in now.
 
Kauto’s star said:
Oh god, better add it to my singles that could both go down if lossie doesn’t go champion….only live once. It’s a shame the same the other related double (Gino/lossie) is too short for me to be interested in now.
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You'd need to make that a treble and include wodhooh.
But I'd wait for nrnb myself
 
The Lossie (Champion Hurdle) and Jade (Mares Hurdle) double is one I'm sure many of us have got. The related part of it creates obvious value. Even if I'm not sure I'd really fancy Jade to beat Wodhooh.
 
Betting seems to suggest Romeo Coolio is going to run in the Irish Arkle at DRF. Be a good race if Kopek makes it.

And I suppose it'll give them an idea of where Romeo is with the 2 milers ahead of Cheltenham.

Wasn't expecting him to run there though. Had hoped for an easier race for Kopek, with the interrupted prep. May only win 10 lengths or so now.
 
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