2026 Champion Hurdle

[archie]

Wants to see Hyland win the Hennessey...

It's worth more than twice as much as the Fighting Fifth.

Apart from that, he's 74 and I can guarantee you that a 45 mile round trip to the course is more attractive than 570 miles.

 

[Quevega]

Don’t think Henderson has ever gone to the fighting fifth
So it’s a non starter

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Don’t think Henderson has ever gone to the fighting fifth
So it’s a non starter

Thinking about it, I’ve seen him watching the FF in the paddock at Newbury, think it was when Binocular finished 2nd to Overturn…not happy!!

 

[Quevega]

Thinking about it, I’ve seen him watching the FF in the paddock at Newbury, think it was when Binocular finished 2nd to Overturn…not happy!!

He was on Nick Luck yesterday and said he'd never been.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Newbury?
What the hell is running at Newbury that trumps con hill

Probably more to do with the 600 mile round road trip and a 5am alarm....

 

[Guinness Village]

He often goes to the queen’s or pheasant after racing on the Saturday

 

[Runragged]

Would the County Hurdle route not be more likely, As a non-novice, he has already had the required three runs has he not? Is it only novices which must run five times to qualify.

Yes, if able to get two runs into him before handicaps are declared as need 5 starts as stated. A lot would depend on when Mullins can get him back to the track and what he does. If he hacks up in a grade 2/3 then they could well consider the Champion Hurdle. If he is in need of the run and gets beat then they may look to get another run into him to qualify for something like the County. He cannot be handicapped purely based on what horses he ran close to did in the future, it must be on the whole form of the races. This is where RPRs can at least give you a guide, as they often tie closely with OR give or take a few pounds. Kawaboomga has a high of 136 RPR which is why I would estimate low 140s, plus a bit of British tax if coming over.

 

[Quevega]

Yes, if able to get two runs into him before handicaps are declared as need 5 starts as stated. A lot would depend on when Mullins can get him back to the track and what he does. If he hacks up in a grade 2/3 then they could well consider the Champion Hurdle. If he is in need of the run and gets beat then they may look to get another run into him to qualify for something like the County. He cannot be handicapped purely based on what horses he ran close to did in the future, it must be on the whole form of the races. This is where RPRs can at least give you a guide, as they often tie closely with OR give or take a few pounds. Kawaboomga has a high of 136 RPR which is why I would estimate low 140s, plus a bit of British tax if coming over.

For a variety of reasons we'll probably never find out so it's a pointless discussion but the statement you made below is not completely correct...

He cannot be handicapped purely based on what horses he ran close to did in the future

Collateral form can and is often taken into account when assessing a horse's official handicap rating. Once entered into a handicap.
So whilst they won't "purely" handicap based on the subsequent form of others, they will certainly consider it and factor this into calculations

In this particular instance given the protagonists in his 2 maidens being the first and second in the supreme novices and considering the relative distances beaten or won by, i'd expect them to factor that in and not rate him as if time ended after his maiden win.

I would acknowledge that they may allow for some leeway in respect of the others improving as this would be understandable, but you could not argue with them if they did rate him 150+. Which is what I've done.

Like I said, we'll probably never know and we are almost certainly wasting our time here.

 

[Runragged]

For a variety of reasons we'll probably never find out so it's a pointless discussion but the statement you made below is not completely correct...

He is eligible to be entered in a handicap at any time so we may well find out in a month or two.

Collateral form can and is often taken into account when assessing a horse's official handicap rating. Once entered into a handicap.
So whilst they won't "purely" handicap based on the subsequent form of others, they will certainly consider it and factor this into calculations

In this particular instance given the protagonists in his 2 maidens being the first and second in the supreme novices and considering the relative distances beaten or won by, i'd expect them to factor that in and not rate him as if time ended after his maiden win.

I would acknowledge that they may allow for some leeway in respect of the others improving as this would be understandable, but you could not argue with them if they did rate him 150+. Which is what I've done.

Like I said, we'll probably never know and we are almost certainly wasting our time here.

I have factored in collateral form, hence suggesting a rating of mid 140s. If not then I would be saying high 130s. The thing is you cannot solely rate Kawaboomga based on improvement two other horses have made as Kawaboomga may not make the same relative improvement. Based on RPR's Kopek has improved 20lb and William Munny 22lb (20lb if accounting for a 2lb higher rating on his 2nd to Workahead) since their runs against Kawaboomga. You are guessing that he will have improved the same by his next start. As an aside, if using RPRs as a guide once again, Munny improved by 14lb for his run following defeat to Kawa, whilst Kopek improved 17lb having won first time up and going into grade 1 level.

 

[Quevega]

He is eligible to be entered in a handicap at any time so we may well find out in a month or two.




I have factored in collateral form, hence suggesting a rating of mid 140s. If not then I would be saying high 130s. The thing is you cannot solely rate Kawaboomga based on improvement two other horses have made as Kawaboomga may not make the same relative improvement. Based on RPR's Kopek has improved 20lb and William Munny 22lb (20lb if accounting for a 2lb higher rating on his 2nd to Workahead) since their runs against Kawaboomga. You are guessing that he will have improved the same by his next start. As an aside, if using RPRs as a guide once again, Munny improved by 14lb for his run following defeat to Kawa, whilst Kopek improved 17lb having won first time up and going into grade 1 level.

With the greatest of respect, Fuck RPR's.
We obviously don't agree, so we'll agree on that.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

With the greatest of respect, Fuck RPR's.
We obviously don't agree, so we'll agree on that.

I know we disagree on RPR's however I do agree not basing a rating through them. I use them for a small part of the big picture, and FWIW I would have Kawaboomga in the 150's too.

If he ends up sub 150 in a handicap pre festival he's a proper bet for me.

I'm wondering if they may enter him in the handicap at the DRF (if he is sub 150) that Gaelic Warrior won, and if he won that then head to the Champion Hurdle with him.

All of this assuming he is back, fit and well, of course.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

He often goes to the queen’s or pheasant after racing on the Saturday

Queens used to be a great racing pub, still is then?

 

[Quevega]

I know we disagree on RPR's however I do agree not basing a rating through them. I use them for a small part of the big picture, and FWIW I would have Kawaboomga in the 150's too.

If he ends up sub 150 in a handicap pre festival he's a proper bet for me.

I'm wondering if they may enter him in the handicap at the DRF (if he is sub 150) that Gaelic Warrior won, and if he won that then head to the Champion Hurdle with him.

All of this assuming he is back, fit and well, of course.

Yeah, his Irish handicap mark would definitely be likely lower and would be interesting to see if it happens, and I agree that any mark around the 145 range and almost every punter I know would want to be on him for a handicap.

I don't disagree on RPR's completely, they just don't form a large part of my decision making and are way down the list of considerations.
If you watch enough racing and punt on a daily basis then they really shouldn't play a large part IMO.

They are a point of reference to help assess your own opinion against another but that's all.
The same as official ratings really, although these matter a lot more as if you disagree with these and think you have an edge then you can make plays accordingly.

I can completely see the value of RPR's for those that don;t spend as much time on racing (by design or not), and also for those that do look to them often, but are critical thinkers, as then the use of them is likely to be more valuable.

Following through ignorance though is more of an issue as they (Racing Post) are not and never have been "independent of incentive".
The very nature of them means they should not be trusted fully IMO.
No problem with Racing Post whatsoever but you have to factor this into your thought process.

 

[Runragged]

Without going too much off point, I'm talking about what the handicapper will do and what the horse will be rated, not what I think he should be rated. I don't believe the handicapper will rate the horse in the 150s and I gave the reasons for that belief.

As to the reference of RPR's, like I said, it is just a guide with the idea of showing what the handicapper may well do. Though the numbers differ, they do give a clue as to how the handicapper may go about it also. The difference with RPRs is they have to account for every race run as opposed to once a horse has earned a handicap mark.

Good idea on the Dublin Festival 2m handicap. The race is capped at 150 so in my belief he would get in. Could also prep in the same race Gaelic did with the Munster Hurdle just a few weeks before.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Constitution Hill a sea of blue for the FF today.

Also been stronger than TNL on the exchanges too over the past week or so.

Whether this support is relayed to the track is another thing.

Despite the above, Constitution Hill is still much bigger than TNL to win the FF & the Champion Hurdle. CH is an 8/1 shot, TNL is 11/2.

 

[Eggs]

Connections of Anzadam expect to have a better idea of where he stands in the two-mile pecking order after he puts his unbeaten record in the line in a mouthwatering renewal of the BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on Saturday.

The French recruit has looked every inch a top-class horse in the making in winning his first two starts at Grade Three level in Ireland for Willie Mullins, the most recent of those coming in the Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas in late January.

But he will face a far sterner test of his ability at Gosforth Park this weekend, with deposed champion Constitution Hill and another unbeaten rival in The New Lion lying in wait.

Speaking at Tramore on Tuesday, Patrick Mullins – assistant to his father – told Racing TV: “Anzadam did a lovely bit of work after racing in Punchestown on Sunday, Paul (Townend) was really happy with him.

“He’s going over there (to Newcastle) and its not going to be an easy task – it’s the Champion Hurdle bar Lossiemouth really and I always think it’s hard to travel for your first run, but we’ll know more after it.

“It’s going to be a proper race.”

With State Man sidelined for the season by injury, much attention has surrounded Lossiemouth, who looked as good as ever when dominating her rivals in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown on her seasonal debut.

Paddy Power make the grey their 3-1 favourite to lift the title at Cheltenham in March, with The New Lion 7-2, Constitution Hill 9-2 and Anzadam a 6-1 shot ahead of this weekend’s key trial.

Reflecting on Lossiemouth’s comeback success, Mullins added: “I thought it was a fantastic performance. Irancy ran poorly and the other two were probably out of their depth, but she’s gone solid fractions and kept going all the way to the line – she didn’t let up anywhere.

“It was a fair pipe-opener and hopefully it will be on to Leopardstown at Christmas now.”

 

[ComplyOrDie]

“He’s going over there (to Newcastle) and its not going to be an easy task – it’s the Champion Hurdle bar Lossiemouth really and I always think it’s hard to travel for your first run, but we’ll know more after it.

I feel like the vibes are strong she'll end up in the Champion Hurdle, as she should really.

I don't think this is the first time he's mentioned Lossiemouth for the Champion Hurdle either, but I'll need to find the quote.

Like he's giving us little clues or maybe I'm reading too much in to it haha!

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Heard it all last season though didn't we, also got the 2 year plan mentioned constantly, only difference this year is they have no State man, if they're happy to run they should, for me they didn't think she was good enough last year, she probably isn't going to be any better this year, suppose the way the race panned out might have them wondering if they should've taken the gamble anyhow, we'll not know until the week before I expect, all options will be kept open until 24 or 48hr decs, one thing is for sure, Golden Ace is forever a CH winner due to her owners conviction...does Ricci have the same conviction to take a chance or will he go for an easier option.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Heard it all last season though didn't we, also got the 2 year plan mentioned constantly, only difference this year is they have no State man, if they're happy to run they should, for me they didn't think she was good enough last year, she probably isn't going to be any better this year, suppose the way the race panned out might have them wondering if they should've taken the gamble anyhow, we'll not know until the week before I expect, all options will be kept open until 24 or 48hr decs, one thing is for sure, Golden Ace is forever a CH winner due to her owners conviction...does Ricci have the same conviction to take a chance or will he go for an easier option.

I think a LOT of the decision will now depend on Anzadam.

IF he wins the FF and wins it well then she'll be back to the Mares in no time, IMO. As Willie said, the FF is, with the exception of Lossiemouth, a Champion Hurdle race, based on the market, at least.

I really like Anzadam, and want him to live up to the hype, but I would also like to see Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle, so I'm a bit on the fence, as we know they won't send both there if they don't have to.

The 'hints' seem to suggest she'll take her place in the race this year, but they could just be red herrings, and Anzadam could be the one! Not long to wait now though that's for sure!

 

[Craigy14]

Constitution Hill a sea of blue for the FF today.

Also been stronger than TNL on the exchanges too over the past week or so.

Whether this support is relayed to the track is another thing.

Despite the above, Constitution Hill is still much bigger than TNL to win the FF & the Champion Hurdle. CH is an 8/1 shot, TNL is 11/2.

He ate his breaky then done a shite this afternoon……so I heard anyway