Paddy Power Gold Cup 2012 Official Thread

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Good analysis on one of my old boards ( Diamond Geezer on neigh)

Recent Paddy Power Gold Cup Winners

2011 – Great Endeavour (8/1)
2010 – Little Josh (20/1)
2009 – Tranquil Sea (11/2 fav)
2008 – Imperial Commander (13/2)
2007 – L’Antartique (13/2)
2006 – Exotic Dancer (16/1)
2005 – Our Vic (9/2 fav)
2004 – Celestial Gold (12/1)
2003 – Fondmort (3/1 fav)
2002 – Cyfor Malta (16/1)


Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends

10/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before

Take out The Disengager, Casey Top,Questions Answered

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before

Take out Al Ferof, Forpadydeplasterer, Michael Flips, Triolo D'Alene

9/10 – Won by a UK-based trainer

Take out Jamsie Hall

8/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old

Take out Poquelin, Wishful Thinking, Calgary Bay,Divers, Finger On The Pulse

7/10 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/10 – Had won at Cheltenham before
6/10 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Aged 7 years-old
4/10 – Won their last race
5/10 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
4/10 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled just 6 placed horses (no winners) from his last 21 runners


Eliminating horses on the top four stats leaves

Hunt Ball, Grands Crus, Aerial, Nadiya De La Vega, Walkon, Kingsmere, Gilbary with the most likely winner based on the other stats being Nadiya De La Vega

That's if you go by stats of course

[Sprinter]

Triolo backers should be encouraged by Barrys Blog

TRIOLO D’ALENE WORTH THE WEIGHT IN MY BID TO STRIKE GOLD AT CHELTENHAM

You could say that I’ll be experiencing the lighter side of life this weekend because I’ll be attempting to get down to 10st 1lb to ride TRIOLO D’ALENE (2.35) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

It takes something special for me to do that light and I’m very hopeful that this will be worthwhile.

The last time I did it was at the Galway Festival and you might remember it nearly came off back in November 2010 when I did the 10st 1lb on Burton Port when we were second in the Hennessy Gold Cup.

It’s a gradual process and I’ve been watching what I’ve been eating over the past few days.

What works for me is just picking a little and not having a large meal and that means that my weight was good going into Clonmel on Thursday when I had 10st 7lb.

I usually have a good run and after racing at Cheltenham on Friday I’ll get down to Oaksey House in Lambourn and get on the treadmill to work up a good sweat.

Although it’s not easy, it’s not as though I do it very often so it doesn’t come as a massive shock to the system. It would be another matter if you had to do it all the time.

As I said, I’m very optimistic that the effort will be worth it because this is a valuable pot to be going for but the quality of the field reflects that - I can’t remember more strength in depth.

But while some of the others have got ratings to go with their improvement, I feel that I’m on a horse that is still on the right side of the handicapper because there are good reasons to think that we haven’t seen him at his best yet.

As you might remember, he was one of our strong fancies going into last season’s Cheltenham Festival when he was a disappointment in the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase and finished 29 lengths eleventh to Hunt Ball.

Don’t think I haven’t got a lot of respect for Hunt Ball, because I’d won on him the time before and I’m sure this drop back from three miles at Aintree when he was third to Follow The Plan will suit him fine.

We’ve now got a 13lb pull with Hunt Ball and although that won’t be enough on paper, I’m absolutely certain you didn’t see the real Triolo D’Alene that day because his wind wasn’t right.

He didn’t run anywhere near the form that had won him two chases in France and one at Ascot.

Nicky Henderson has seen to that and I was delighted with him when he came back to run eight lengths second to Zitenka at Market Rasen in May.

The reason I was pleased was because the trip was shy of Saturday at two and a half and Market Rasen would not be a track that would bring out his best. He needs a strong gallop and he’ll get that at Cheltenham.

While I’m mindful of Hunt Ball, the one I’m most concerned about is Al Ferof. He paid the price of trying to put it up to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase and was in front when he made a really bad mistake four out.

He was right on the pace at Aintree after that when he tried two and a half for the first time over fences and I can see him being ridden with a little more restraint this time so the trip should be fine.

I won the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup on Quantitativeeasing and he’s a player here despite the 10lb higher mark and I’d have respect for another of the Seven Barrows representatives, Nadiya De La Vega. She’s up 8lb for winning last time at Cheltenham but that won’t stop her being competitive.

I’ve had some really good days on Forpadydeplasterer who’s now on a fair enough mark of 150. I can see him right in the action from three out but the young improvers might just have too much on him at the age of ten.

In fact, it’s hard to put a line through any of the leading players in this, including Grands Crus who might just be suited to dropping back to two miles five but I’m not swapping mine for anything.

[Yeehaa]

Another view...

Is Grands Crus worth a bet for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at prices around the 5/2 mark at Cheltenham on Saturday?

That is the question most punters coming to Prestbury Park will be asking themselves and it's hard to get away from his credentials, especially when trainer David Pipe bangs in an opening day double courtesy of Dynaste and Swing Bill.

You all know why he can win, but I'll be swerving him at the prices. I'm convinced he'll be a stone better than a 157 horse in time, but so was Long Run and he only managed third.

It's a tough race to win no matter how well handicapped you might be and I'm just put off by his tendency to race with the choke out, esecially first time up in a heat like this.

I'm not convinced any of his main market rivals; Al Ferof, Walkon and Hunt Ball are particularly well handicapped with TRIOLO D'ALENE the one I'd be most interested in at the top of the market.

It's his effort at Market Rasen that highlights his credentials for this contest. He travelled really well that day but couldn't match the finishing effort of Zitenka once headed.

However, to me it showed he's got a handicap in him off this sort of mark (just 2lb higher on Saturday) and at 14/1 he rates a value poke to land the contest for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

The ground will be perfect for him, he goes well fresh and could be primed to strike off his light weight.

I'm loathe to back another in the contest given I've already backed two non-runners for the race ante-post but I can't resist the claims of CASEY TOP each-way at 50/1.

The case for him is a simple one. If you include his jockey's claim he's only 8lb higher than when he hacked up at Killarney in May where he beat previous Paddy Power winner Tranquil Sea, and is actually 2lb better off than when a good second in the Galway Plate.

He failed to stay three miles in heavy ground when 11th in the Kerry National and perhaps that effort explains his 50/1 quotes.

However, 2m5f on better ground is perfect for him and this front-runner is usually a good jumper. When he gets into a rhythm, he's hard to peg back.

Certainly, there's enough in his favour to back him each-way to small stakes at such a big price.

[Sprinter]

Tom Scudamore's faith in Grands Crus is undiminished as he looks forward to riding the ante-post favourite in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Scudamore guided the seven-year-old grey to each of his three victories over fences last season and forgives him an under-par performance in the RSA Chase at the Festival in March.

"I'm looking forward to it. I had a sit on him last week. He's in good order. It's going to be a tough, competitive race, but I'm very happy with him and wouldn't swap him for anything," he said.

"From an early stage he wasn't his normal self in the RSA, but he wouldn't be the first horse to bounce back from that race. I've got maximum belief in him and hopefully he'll show it. It's a cracking race, but that's why the Paddy Power and the Hennessy are the two winter classics before the King George. They are great races to win and I hope we can do it."

Scudamore is seeking the first success in this prestigious handicap chase which his father, Peter, won in 1988 on Pegwell Bay. Grands Crus' trainer David Pipe saddled Great Endeavour to victory 12 months ago to open his account in a race his father, Martin, dominated for so long with eight victories.

The present incumbent at Pond House is simply hoping for a smooth run in the race, saying: "He's well, but it's a very hot and competitive race. With luck in running, hopefully he'll be thereabouts."

Hunt Ball was last season's big success story, rising a staggering 88lb in the ratings as he won seven races including the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase at the Festival. He was beaten in his last start, but that was in the Grade One Betfred Bowl at Aintree, where he was third to Follow The Plan.

Trainer Keiran Burke said: "I'm a bit nervous, but I've done all my work now and it's down to the horse and jockey on the day. Hunt Ball is a very laid-back horse and you have to make him work. He has been back in a while following his summer break, as we didn't want to get him fit too quickly.

"The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a hot handicap chase and you have to be ready for a race like that. He has had a racecourse gallop and lots of schooling. He is a bigger and stronger horse this year, having grown a little bit over the summer. Hopefully, he has improved, too.

"Aintree came quickly after Cheltenham. It was the end of a long season and I think he was just a bit tired. We won't know if last season has left its mark until he runs on Saturday. I don't think it has - he feels brilliant."

[Yeehaa]

@BillEsdaile: One firm has just gone 9/1 Triolo D'Alene for tomorrow #paddypower Gold Cup. He might be pricewise, but surely he's not good enough #jumping

[JohnC]

Looks like forpady & triolo price wise ?

[Sefton]

Timeform provide a runner-by-runner guide to the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Saturday's feature race at Cheltenham due off at 14:35...

Poquelin boasts excellent record at this track (last 5 wins here) and made respectable return when fourth at Ascot (3m) earlier this month. Ought to be competitive off this mark.

Al Ferof won the 2011 Supreme Novices' and made good start over fences last term, winning twice and fine third in Ascot Grade 1. Below par at festival and Aintree after, but makes shortlist on 2012/13 return.

Calgary Bay enjoyed excellent start to 2012, winning over 21f here on New Year's Day before career-best success in Skybet Chase at Doncaster. Tailed off in Grand National, but since joined Mick Channon.

Hunt Ball had remarkable 2011/12, improving with each start and winning 7 of his 9 outings, including at festival over C&D. Better still when third in Betfair Bowl (25f) and further improvement possible.

Grands Crus a top-class hurdler who looked outstanding novice when slamming Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in Feltham. Forgiven effort in RSA subsequently and holds strong claims off lenient-looking initial mark.

Quantitativeeasing compiled good record last term, second in this race 12 months ago before scoring at this venue in December. Bit disappointing subsequently, but not impossibly treated on 2012/13 return.

Aerial kicked off his campaign last season with fourth-placed effort in this and landed Grade 3 handicap at Newbury in March. Probably needs to find improvement to be winning off this mark, however.

Tanks For That has good record fresh, as evidenced with success on his seasonal debut over 2m at this meeting last year. Second in Grand Annual at Festival and probably better at that trip, so passed over.

Forpadydeplasterer winless since 2009 Arkle, though has finished in frame most starts since. Encouraging efforts in Gowran Grade 2 chase and on Flat recently and could go well at big price.

Nadiya de la Vega has gone well fresh in past and landed hotly-contested handicap after 10 months off over 2½m here last month. Not always easiest to catch right, however, and 8 lb rise for that demands more now.

Michael Flips' best novice effort came when second in the Scilly Isles Chase in February. Possibly needed run after 8 months off at Ascot last time, arguably doing too much too soon and type to bounce back.

Walkon didn't really kick on after promising start over fences last year, though there's probably a bigger performance in him at some stage and he's gone well fresh in past, so can't be discounted.

The Disengager is a front runner who has made hay so far in 2012/13, winning 4 races from May onwards, including listed handicap at Market Rasen. New mark makes life tougher here, though.

Divers, a 2011 Festival winner and twice made frame here last season, third in this event and fourth in Byrne Group Plate. Seasonal return easy enough to excuse, though jumping remains point of concern.

Triolo d'Alene won twice over fences in France and made useful winning start for new yard in 19f Ascot handicap in January. Below par behind Hunt Ball at festival, but bounced back at Market Rasen in May.

Kingsmere is better over fences than hurdles, winning at Cartmel and Stratford in summer and set to go close before falling last time. This big-field scenario presents an entirely different challenge, however.

Casey Top a useful front-running chaser who won at Killarney in May. Further improvement when second in Galway Plate, but disappointed when unable to dominate in Kerry National last time. Others preferred.

Finger Onthe Pulse 2008 Festival winner who finished third behind Nadiya de La Vega in 2½m handicap latest start (last outing for Tom Taaffe). Remains to be seen if he can back that up for new yard.

Questions Answered fairly useful hurdler/chaser at best, creditable efforts over 3m in the mud when placed in Kerry and Munster Nationals this term. Faces different conditions here, though, and 7 lb out of weights.

Gilbarry hinted at return to form before falling 4 out in handicap here in April. Typically not fluent when behind couple of these over 2½m here last month and easy to dismiss from 10 lb wrong.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Grands Crus
2. Al Ferof
3. Forpadydeplasterer

Timeform Verdict: Although competitive, this handicap could boil down to a pair of second-season chasers, namely Grands Crus and Al Ferof. The suspicion is the former's current mark vastly underplays his true ability, so he's taken to triumph. Walkon is also respected, while Forpadydeplasterer appeals for each-way purposes.

[mayo]

Tom Lee

Nadiya Not To Be Missed In Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup

It doesn’t seem like five minutes since David Pipe’s Great Endeavour was powering up the Cheltenham hill to see off Quantitativeeasing and co to claim the 2011 Paddy Power Gold Cup, but 12 months on it’s showtime for those bidding to claim this year’s renewal, worth a not insignificant £91,120 to the winner.

Live on Channel 4 at 2.35pm the big race is oozing with star quality, not least from 157-rated favourite Grands Crus, as the classy grey son of Dom Alco looks to give Pipe consecutive wins in the race.

Before him his father Martin took this race a staggering eight times, and it’s not hard to see why bookmakers aren’t taking too many chances with Grands Crus, especially when you consider he was a 10 length course and distance winner here on his chasing debut a year ago.

That said, he hasn’t seen the track for 248 days, and could only finish a disappointing 18 length fourth to Bobs Worth when sent off 6/5 market leader for the RSA Chase here in March.

Running in a handicap for the first time in two years there is the chance he could turn this into a procession, but at the prices there are plenty of value alternatives to try and at least find one to join him in the frame, and charismatic West Country owner Anthony Knott hasn’t been shy in voicing his confidence in Hunt Ball’s chances of adding to his novices’ handicap win at the Festival back in March.

He’s on an identical mark to Grands Crus, but this really is where the going gets tough for a horse who made an almost miraculous rise up through the ranks in 2011/12.

It’d be a great story if he were to win and reward his connections with another day in the spotlight, but the likes of Walkon, Al Ferof and the very well backed Triolo D’Alene will ensure a vert stern test.

The one I like though is available at bigger odds than any of them, and with a couple of the bookmakers willing to lay us the fifth place concession each way I’m going to suggest a few quid each way on one of Nicky Henderson’s trio in the race Nadiya De La Vega.

Henderson was out of luck with four runners at the track on Friday, but has three chances to bag the big one a day later, with Quantitativeeasing (second in this in 2011), Triolo D’Alene and Nadiya De La Vega all holding more than a squeak (Tanks For That is a non runner).

Nadiya De La Vega is a tough daughter of Lost World, and proved her fitness and wellbeing with a course and distance win here at the Showcase meeting exactly four weeks ago.

She’s entitled to come on for that run, and with track, trip and ground to suit you’d have to think she can be in the mix, especially as an 8lbs rise put her in on 145 and a racing weight of 10.8.

Champion jockey AP McCoy is available to ride after steering her home last time, and at six years of age this could be a big season for her.

She certainly hasn’t got too many miles on the clock, but does have a very likeable attitude, and at 14/1 with the sponsors or bet365 (both are offering each way 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5) she makes plenty of appeal (William Hill go 16′s, but only to four places).

[mayo]

Right lads heading in so last word from the Donn..

There are a couple of routes into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. You could say that it is very difficult to carry big weights to victory in the race. You could point to the fact that only two horses in the last nine years have carried more than 10st 13lb to victory, and that only the top class pair, Bradbury Star and Cyfor Malta, both of whom excelled over two and a half miles at Cheltenham, have carried more than 11st 8lb since Very Promising in 1986.

If you were to adopt that line, you would start at the bottom of the handicap and work your way up. You would stop and have a look at Triolo D’Alene, you would note that the lowest weight at which Barry Geraghty had ridden in the last 12 months was 10st 2lb, and that he had committed to ride the five-year-old despite the fact that Nicky Henderson had three other entries in the race. (Okay, so AP had the pick of the two JP McManus horses, but there were still other good rides apparently available to Barry without the need for him to survive on a chicken wing and a half a bowl of pasta for the last five days.)

You might move on from Triolo D’Alene (too inexperienced, and all the value is gone now anyway) and alight on Walkon. Rated 143 over fences, 10lb lower than over hurdles, at his best when he is fresh, time to catch him is on his seasonal debut, goes well at Cheltenham, a little bit of rain won’t hinder. It’s all good stuff.

However, you could adopt the opposite approach. You could point to the fact that eight of the last 19 renewals were won by horses carrying 11st 2lb or more. You could conclude that class rules in this race, and that today’s renewal is the classiest renewal in ages, perhaps ever – seven horses are rated 155 or higher, compared to a maximum of three and a minimum of none in recent years – so you are probably going to need a well-handicapped horse who has class more than just a well-handicapped horse to win it.

If you were to do that, you would conclude that the Paddy Power would be won by a horse who would have the potential to go on afterwards and win the King George. If you did, you would say Grands Crus definitely, Al Ferof probably, Walkon possibly, Hunt Ball maybe.

There is no doubting Grands Crus’s class. He was a hugely impressive winner of the Feltham Chase at Kempton last December, beating Charlie Hall Chase winner SIlviniaco Conti and RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth, and clocking a faster time than Kauto Star clocked in winning the King George later on the day.

He did disappoint in the RSA Chase on his only run since, but that probably wasn’t his running. Either the trip at the track or the season was too long and he was just found out.

There is no doubting Al Ferof’s class either. He won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, beating the top class Nicky Henderson pair Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre into second and third places respectively, with Cue Card back in fourth, and he finished third in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot last January as a mere novice, just over three lengths behind subsequent Champion Chase hero Finian’s Rainbow. A mark of 159 is high enough, but it is difficult to argue that it is not merited.

On top of that, he goes well at Cheltenham, the step up to two and a half miles should be in his favour even though he has the pace for two miles, and Paul Nicholls has reported that he has been really happy with the horse over the last two weeks, that he has schooled and worked really well. Put the cherry that is Ruby Walsh on top of the cake that is the case for Al Ferof, and it is a compelling one.

Grands Crus is going to take a lot of beating, it is difficult to pick holes, and Al Ferof does have to concede 2lb to him, but the disparity in their respective odds (3.6 and 9.6) is probably greater than it should be. Al Ferof shouldn’t be three times Grands Crus’s price. He isn’t three times less likely to win the race than Grands Crus, if that makes sense.

You can argue the case for Hunt Ball, and the scribes would be assured of some colourful quotes from his colourful owner if he did happen to go and win. It would be some story – from a rating of 69 to winning the Paddy Power off 157 – but the hype has probably shortened his price at least a little, and it may continue to shorten today as the public latch on even more. I don’t know who the Morning Line guest today is, but if you were betting on it without any prior knowledge, you would put Anthony Knott in as clear favourite.

The afore-mentioned Walkon is also on my shortlist. He may not have the obvious class that Grands Crus and Al Ferof have, but he is still classy, he finished second in a Triumph Hurdle and he won a Matalan Anniversary Hurdle. As well as that, he gets 16lb from Al Ferof and 14lb from Grands Crus. That’s a stone for finishing a neck behind David Pipe’s horse in the RSA Chase. 9.2 is fair.

Of the rest, Forpadydeplasterer is thrown in on old form and he could be a player if it doesn’t rain overnight, and Micheal Flips is the other horse for whom you could make a case. He finished 13 lengths in front of Walkon in the re-scheduled Scilly Isles Chase at Newbury in February, and he is just 2lb worse off. But Walkon is better than he showed that day, he should leave that form well behind on his seasonal debut – at his best when he is fresh – and you just would have liked to have seen Micheal Flips run a little better on his seasonal debut at Ascot, albeit over an inadequate two miles.

I fear Grands Crus, but I am happy to let him run at 3.6. At the prices, I am with Al Ferof and Walkon.

[Sprinter]

That is some post mayo. donn is a legend !

[johnno]

Fixed your list ...good shortlist now imo.

You had two of first 3 their sprinter. Each way I hope !

[Hoof]

Handicappers Blog

NOT SO GRANDS
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is usually one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season, but as Grands Crus continued to shorten in the pre-race betting I began to wonder if he was going to turn this year’s race into a rout, writes Mark Olley

He was/is undeniably well handicapped on the pick of his hurdles form, but he hadn’t quite reached that level over fences despite beating some top-class rivals in small field events. He was also having his first chase outside of novice company and was tackling a big field for the first time over fences.

During the race itself he travelled pretty well until coming under pressure before three out but then dropped out tamely. No reasons for this performance could be found immediately post-race, although he did lose a shoe, but I would be amazed if something didn’t come to light once he is given a more thorough assessment back at home.

So is he well handicapped over fences? His rating won’t be changed for this run so I guess we will have to wait for another day to find out!

Second season chasers have a fine record in the Paddy Power and with Grands Crus disappointing it was left to Al Ferof to uphold their reputation, something he did in fine style. This was Paul Nicholls’ geldings first run in handicap company and by running out a decisive winner under 11-8 he confirmed himself a top-class 2m4f performer.

I based the race around the runner-up Walkon who clearly runs extremely well when fresh, having won on his reappearance last season and been denied narrowly in a handicap hurdle (from a mark of 148) the previous year. I have him returning to his best chase figure of 148 – this he achieved twice last term, in Novices at Exeter and Newbury.

The above means that Al Ferof moves up 9lb to a new rating of 168. To put this into context the last five Ryanair Chase winners at the Festival have been rated 170-168-168-165-168, so this run is equal to all but one of those! Al Ferof will reportedly tackle 3m in the King George next and his season looks sure to revolve around whether he stays that longer trip. If he doesn’t he must surely go very close in the Ryanair.