Yorks Ebor Meeting Day 2 - 18/8/2016

[bitchy]

1.55 York – Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes


As we’ve been fairly accustomed to, this sales race has proven pretty tricky to decipher over the years. However, Hamdan Al Maktoum has landed the last two contests and RUSUMAAT is fancied to deliver a third here. Mark Johnston’s charge has had a fairly busy year already having started out in early April and produced a career-best last time out in a hot nursery at Goodwood. The son of Arcano hit the front two furlongs out and despite being challenged on all sides, he stuck to his guns and only failed to reel Final Reckoning back in inside the final half a furlong. He gave the winner 5lb and to get as close as he did on those terms will likely prove to be a particularly good effort. Prior to his Goodwood run, he sluiced up in a Catterick novice weight under a penalty and that form has been franked with the runner-up, nearly five lengths back, running out a ready winner at Chepstow earlier this month and following up back at that track yesterday. He holds an eye-catching entry in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes later in the season and his proven form in big fields will certainly help his cause. The drying ground is another plus.

It may be a different story for his stablemate Miss Infinity who just got up in a soft ground Listed race in France last time out. Connections thought that she may be better on decent ground but she was well beaten in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes on good to firm in July and the way she stayed on over seven furlongs last time wouldn’t suggest that a drop back to six would particularly suit. She does hold a raft of big race entries later in the season but the autumn ground may be the perfect foil for her.

Another that may be doing a rain dance is Danielsflyer who hasn’t been seen since going down by the narrowest of margins to Legendary Lunch in the Listed Woodcote Stakes at Epsom on Oaks day. The Dandy Man colt came with a strong late run and may have just got his head in front before losing out on the nod. Having only ever raced on good to soft ground on turf (finished second on debut on the Southwell fibresand), he enters the unknown here but if coping with the conditions, he will hold a leading chance.

Kevin Ryan landed back-to-back renewals of this in 2011 & 2012 and holds a strong hand here with a quartet of runners. Hemingway is the most interesting of the bunch having struck at Pontefract last time. He found the minimum trip on the sharp side and just got up in the shadow of the post which suggests that the step up to six furlongs here should bring about a bit of improvement. Fellow last time out scorer Perfect Madge has a bit to prove having finished down the field in the Weatherbys Super Sprint on her penultimate start. Like her stablemate, the five furlongs there may have proved too sharp and she does have the benefit of receiving weight from most of the field here. Both Heir of Excitement and Perfect Symphony have a bit to find with a couple of re-opposing rivals here and look up against it.

The Sylvester Kirk string are in fine fettle at present and Mr Hobbs must be considered with the eye-catching booking of Frankie Dettori in the plate. He took a while to really get to grips with things but showed a good attitude to battle back to the front at Newbury last time to shed his maiden tag. The front two pulled clear that day and the form has been franked with the runner-up, Phijee, landing minor events at Carlisle and Ripon on his next two starts. There are a couple of more progressive types in the field but the streetwise son of Harbour Watch has a chance to make the frame.

Stormy Clouds is already an experienced campaigner having had eight starts since making her debut at Kempton back in March. She chased home Mrs Danvers in the Weatherbys Super Sprint in July and finished third behind that same rival in the Listed St Hugh’s Stakes last week. The step up to six furlongs here is a first for her but she has been finishing her races off well and could have a say in matters.
On the back of his win in a decent-looking nursery last time, Rainbow Mist looks to have a shout but the quick conditions may just knock his chances slightly. His third-place in the Two Year Old Trophy at Beverley in May was a particularly strong run given that the first and second, Prince of Lir and The Last Lion, went on to fill the same placings in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and his latest effort was rather impressive. Slower ground would enhance his chances a great deal but that doesn’t look likely with the forecast at present.

MY Advice


RUSUMAAT– 0.5pt win @ 7/1 (SkyBet, bet365, Ladbrokes)



2.30 York – Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2)


This year’s Lowther looks to revolve around the pair of Frankel fillies in the line-up and FAIR EVA will take a huge amount of beating. The Juddmonte filly has been bred for greatness being by the undefeated Frankel out of the Group 1 winning mare African Rose. She was heavily backed ahead of her racecourse debut at Haydock back in June and rewarded her followers with a sumptuous display. She looked like the winner from a fair way out and cruised clear to a facile four length win. The form of that race has been boosted as well with the runner-up, the re-opposing Nations Alexander, and the third, Miss Infinity, both scoring at Listed level subsequently. Roger Charlton’s filly was again a warm order in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on King George day and produced another impressive rout of the opposition, finishing four lengths ahead of Kilmah in second. After just two runs, she looks to be the top juvenile filly in Britain and Ireland and can extend her unbeaten run to three here.

The one that can chase her home is the other Frankel filly in the field, Queen Kindly. She is another who is bred to be something special being out of the 2009 Lowther winner Lady Of The Desert and has already shown a high level of form in her three runs to date. Easy wins in a pair of Catterick novice events sandwiched a fine third in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, where greenness may have cost her the race, and with the promise of more to come once she gets the hang of things, she could be the biggest danger.

Ballydoyle challenger Roly Poly boasts the highest level of form on offer following her win from Magical Fire in the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket’s July Festival but she does have a 3lb penalty to contend with here as a result of that. Sounder underfoot conditions have proven to be to her liking so things should be perfect for her here but the suspicion is that could well improve past her in receipt of weight.

MY Advice

FAIR EVA – 2.5pts win @ 1/2 (bet365, William Hill)

[bitchy]

3.05 York – Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap)


With 20/1, 8/1, 25/1, 12/1 and 25/1 winners in the last five renewals of this race, it’s clearly not been an easy puzzle to solve and with plenty of high-quality, experienced mile handicappers engaged in this year’s renewal of the race, it’s certainly competitive once again.

Chil The Kite was last year’s winner, a superb performance off top weight for trainer Hughie Morrison, and after a couple of unsuccessful runs this season, he races off the same mark now as he did a year ago, so clearly he has to be respected. Goerge Baker again takes the ride, so everything is as it was twelve months ago. However, at this stage in the seven-year-old’s career, it does seem that he prefers a little bit of give in the ground, as he had in 2015, so on this quick surface, he might just find a few too fast for him.

Another seven-year-old, Fort Bastion is right down the other end of the weights, racing off a mark of 93 – his lowest since winning at Thirsk in May 2014. David O’Meara’s charge may not have won for over a year now and hasn’t looked as if he’s about to win a race like this, but the trainer is a master at getting horses right for the big day, and this useful handicapper could well have been given a big chance by the handicapper. William Buick is an eye-catching booking and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this horse outran his odds, even though he’s another who might just like the ground a little less quick than good to firm.

However, this is a race that’s been dominated by three and four-year-olds for the most part, winning three and four renewals respectively from the last ten years and I think this race is ripe for an improving younger horse to make a mark in. Marco Botti doesn’t seem to have many winners on the turf these days, but he has two entered here that look to hold decent chances of improving that record. Fanciful Angel has shown good form around the world, from Ascot to San Siro to Meydan, most recently finishing a good eighth in the International Stakes at Ascot over seven furlongs. However, this return to a mile at a track like York should suit, especially on this quick ground and Daniel Muscutt’s helpful 3lb claim means that the Dark Angel gelding will be running off 102, his lowest ever mark in a handicap. Azraff also represents Botti here and has dropped back down to a mark of 99, the same mark from which he was fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup. He’s been running very consistently this season, has a good draw in 16 and the son of Paco Boy holds good claims, even though he may well need to drop a few pounds more in the handicap to get back in the winners’ enclosure (highest winning mark is 95).

The most unexposed contender in the field is the thrice-raced Red Napoleon, trained by Ralph Beckett and with James Doyle booked for the ride. He’s already registered two wins in his short career and looks a decent miler in the making. However, the form of his last win, over the 74-rated The Gay Cavalier, certainly doesn’t stack up to him being able to run well off a mark of 95 here. There were excuses for making such hard work of that rival, mainly due to the trip being a mile and a quarter, further than he’d want, and of course he’s entitled to improve plenty for that run, but there’s nothing in that effort that suggests he should be up to winning a race as competitive as this, this early in his career.

David O’Meara has FIVE in the race and even apart from the aforementioned Fort Bastion, you’d expect him to have one or two in the shake-up at the end. One of his most intriguing contenders is Firmament, who, after a successful stint on the all-weather, returned to the turf with a decent effort in fourth behind Franklin D at Newmarket in July. He has since won again on the all-weather and his mark has gone up 5lbs as a result, but there could be plenty more to come from this son of Cape Cross and he’s worth keeping on the right side of.

But it’s the only three-year-old in the race that catches my eye most and I’m clearly not the only one to have been interested in the Sir Michael Stoute-trained MUSTASHRY as he’s been installed as a strong favourite for the race. It is easy to see why he’s so strongly fancied: he receives a 6lb weight-for-age allowance, he’s improving at a rate of knots on his preferred quick ground and he’s got as nice draw in 17. His last run was a hard-fought victory at Ascot over the likes of Pirouette, Folkswood and Von Blucher, all very useful animals, and he’s only gone up 5lbs for that win. The weight allowance here though, means he’s effectively running off a pound lower than that Ascot win and for a progressive sort like this Tamayuz colt, which means trouble for the rest of the field. He’s likely to be prominently ridden by Paul Hanagan, which will suit his honest, strong travelling style of racing and I find it hugely difficult to see him being anywhere outside the top 4 in a race that lacks many contenders with a profile as progressive as his.


MY Advice


MUSTASHRY – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)



3.40 York – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)


The fillies take centre stage on Thursday and Aidan O’Brien sends over a strong team as he searches for a fourth victory in this Group 1 contest.

In terms of the betting, the most fancied of his quartet is Found who has only finished outside the top three on one occasion during her career, when ninth in the Arc last October. Her last run saw her finish a close second to My Dream Boat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on ground which would have been slower than ideal. The ground here is likely to be more suitable for the filly and she is pretty versatile over 1m2f or 1m4f so she looks to have plenty going in her favour. The one negative is that she has to concede 10lb to the three-year-olds which could be quite tough and at around 7/4 I think we will take her on.
Her biggest danger is likely to come in the shape of her stablemate SEVENTH HEAVEN who may have been disappointing in the Oaks at Epsom but other than that, she looks to have a very progressive profile. She just didn’t handle the undulations of Epsom but having beaten Architecture in the Lingfield Oaks Trial earlier in the season, she confirmed her superiority when landing the Irish Oaks from that rival last time. I am not surprised that Seamie Heffernan has got onto Found here but Colm O’Donoghue is an able replacement and I don’t think we have seen the best of this filly yet. This track should suit her well and I fancy her to run a big race.

Ballydoyle are also represented by Even Song who landed the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot but she failed to build on that when well-beaten in the Irish Oaks last time. She was well-fancied to continue her improvement there but she ran no sort of race and it is hard to know what to expect from her here. The quartet is completed by Group 3 winner Pretty Perfect who finished behind Even Song in the Irish Oaks and could be the one to set the pace under Paul Hanagan.

Nobody has trained more winners of this race than Sir Michael Stoute and he is represented here by Queen’s Trust who was last seen chasing home Minding in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. She seems to be getting better with racing as the stable’s runners often do and a repeat of her latest performance would put her right in the mix here.

Of the older fillies, it is hard to dismiss the chances of Charlie Appleby’s Endless Time who picked up where she left off last season by winning the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks on her first start of the campaign. She stayed on well in the closing stages to get the better of Furia Cruzada and she should strip fitter for that run.

Of those at bigger prices, Luca Cumani’s Koora ran well here in the Middleton Stakes on her seasonal reappearance and also ran well over course and distance in the Galtres Stakes last year. She has to put a disappointing run in Ireland behind her but it would be no surprise to see her bounce back in more familiar surroundings.

Also worth a small mention is Turret Rocks who represents last year’s winning stable and Jim Bolger has always held this filly in high regard. He believes that the quick ground here will show her in a much better light and although she has plenty to find with the main protagonists I think she could run better than her sizeable odds suggest.


MY Advice


SEVENTH HEAVEN – 1.5pts win @ 9/2 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)

[bitchy]

4.20 York – EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race)


This race has only been won twice in the last ten years by a filly that wasn’t three years old and this year could well be a continuation of the trend given the extra weight that the likes of Twitch, Anzhelika and Pandora have to shoulder. Each would have a chance here, but giving 10lbs to some of these improving three-year-old fillies is a very tough task indeed, so I’d prefer to focus on those younger improvers.
Abingdon heads the list and the market at the moment and Sir Michael Stoute’s Street Cry filly certainly possesses some decent form, including a Listed win, a defeat of Ajman Princess in an Ascot Maiden and a second to Fireglow in a Newmarket Listed race last time out. There was a time when the Lancashire Oaks was the purported target for this filly, but connections seem to think that this is a winnable opening for her, even though she does have to shoulder a 4lb penalty for winning that Listed contest at Nebury. This filly stays well and will enjoy the fast ground, being by Street Cry, so she certainly has a favourite’s chance considering her improvement may not have finished yet, but the extra weight and the way she still seemed to be learning when taking a while to pick up last time are legitimate concerns.
Luca Cumani seems to finally be hitting some kind of form now and he’s represented by Tiptree, who was last seen finishing a short head behind Abingdon in the Listed contest at Newmarket won by Fireglow. She ran a very similar race to Stoute’s filly that day and off 1lb better terms, she would possibly finish ahead of that rival here. However, I don’t think Abingdon will be held up quite as dramatically as she was that day, so Tiptree will have a larger gap to close this time around. It’s not impossible that this filly will have improved again, but I have a sneaking suspicion that she’d prefer slightly slower ground and won’t enjoy the quick conditions in the same way Abingdon will.

One who comes into the race completely unexposed and who could be anything is the John Gosden-trained To Eternity, who broke her maiden tag on the all-weather at Wolverhampton in a similar move to how her stablemate Wings Of Desire (also owned by Lady Bamford) entered the winners’ enclosure for the first time. That horse went on to win the Dante on his next start and while this filly may not be in that league, the fashion of her victory last time out suggests that she’s certainly lots better than just competing in maiden company. The step up to a mile and a half clearly suited and given she’s entered in the Group 1 Fillies & Mares’ Stakes on Champions Day; connections clearly expect the daughter of Galileo to have come on plenty again for that. The concerns would be her inexperience and the large jump from Class 5 to Listed class racing.

Both Dermot Weld and John Oxx have come across the Irish Sea to win this race with three-year-olds in the past seven years and this time, it could be Jim Bolger who adds to the good record of the Irish raiders from the classic generation. Glamorous Approach is a filly that was once touted by the trainer as an Oaks candidate, but even though her form tailed off and that failed to materialise, she clearly possesses some real ability for Bolger to be so positive about her at the start of the season. To me, it seems that running this filly on soft ground hasn’t really suited her, what she really wants is a trip on better ground, something she’ll certainly get here. She won on her racecourse debut on good to firm ground and later won really nicely in a Listed race on good ground at Newmarket, defeating the likes of Landofhopeandglory, Move Up and Ormito. As that was a two-year-old contest, she escapes a penalty for that win and has a chance to redeem herself here off the minimum weight of 8-11. She was last seen finishing third over two miles at the Curragh, a trip that was probably too far and given that it was her first run for over two months, she may have come on for that. If this New Approach filly can return to the form she showed at the end of last season and at the start of the 2016 campaign, she could have a great chance in what looks a very open race.


MY Advice


GLAMOROUS APPROACH – 1pt win @ 11/2 (SkyBet)



4.55 York – Eventmasters.Co.Uk EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap)


The card on Thursday concludes with this 7f handicap for the fillies and there is more than one or two in this field who are hoping for a return to form here.

Ed Dunlop’s Sharaakah had been running well without winning including at Royal Ascot and Sandown in Listed company but her latest effort at Haydock was more than a shade disappointing. She missed the break and ran into trouble in running so perhaps the run wasn’t as bad as it first appeared, but I’m not sure the drop back in trip is ideal and she has plenty of weight on her back.

Opal Tiara is another who needs to get back on track having been beaten in Group 3 company at Goodwood at the end of last month. Prior to that she had been impressive when accounting for the smart Red Box at Carlisle and she may just not have handled the track at Goodwood last time. She has a wide draw to overcome here but her best form would give her a chance here.

Mark Johnston saddles three runners and the pick of those looks to be Hawatif who comes here in search of the hat-trick, having followed up her Doncaster success at Goodwood last time. She has only gone up 4lb for that latest half-length success and she should run her usual solid race.

Her stablemate Dawaa is also interesting not least because Paul Hanagan appears to have chosen her over the lightly-raced Jadaayil. She won over course and distance back in July and ran well of her elevated mark when third to Spangled at Newmarket last time. Clearly Hanagan feels that this filly is better equipped for this test, but it would be no surprise to see the other Hamdan Al Maktoum runner go well on just her fourth start.

Richard Fahey is no stranger to success on the Knavesmire and he saddles Mustique in this particular contest. The filly encountered traffic problems at Musselburgh last time when chasing home the progressive Lucky Violet and she looks to have a decent chance off the same mark here. How well-handicapped she is at present is hard to know but she seemed to appreciate the step up to seven furlongs and there could be more to come.

However, the one who I like in this is DUTCH MIST who may have been well beaten here in May but since the blinkers have gone on, she has really thrived. She got her head in front at Pontefract in June over six furlongs before going down narrowly over the same course and distance next time. She was running on in the closing stages last time which suggests the return to seven furlongs should suit and given the form she is in at present, I think she can outrun her odds of around 10/1.

MY Advice


DUTCH MIST – 0.5pt e/w @ 10/1 (SkyBet)

[dazzler]

Good job bitchy, surely O'Meara strikes today I,ve sided with firmament for a decent ew bet . And ew double with Pandora. Good luck m8.