2025 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Agree. He was never, ever going BANC especially with the trainer/owner other two horses that were better suited to go that way. Was always going to be nothing or Arkle . He'll still not be good enough to trouble the top two though.

I thought it was a top 1 now

[Quevega]

Forgot who mentioned it today as I've watched a few things

But an interesting titbit from a timings POV.

Leau du sud (10-7) ran his County around 7 seconds slower than Majbrough (11-2) ran his triumph, obviously same course and distance and day, give or take an hour.

7 seconds on slow ground equates to around 28 lengths.

And IMO one was all out in what looked a well run handicap (placed horses all held up and winner came from last) and the other was dossing and running green.

A little insight on relative ability I think.

So definitely a top 1 IMO.

Got to jump and get round though.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Im not sure JB is a 2 miler, but I am sure he’s a better jumper than Maj as seen so far.
And the race has been won by horses that stayed further .
I would not dismiss him easily.

[darlojim]

Forgot who mentioned it today as I've watched a few things

But an interesting titbit from a timings POV.

Leau du sud (10-7) ran his County around 7 seconds slower than Majbrough (11-2) ran his triumph, obviously same course and distance and day, give or take an hour.

7 seconds on slow ground equates to around 28 lengths.

And IMO one was all out in what looked a well run handicap (placed horses all held up and winner came from last) and the other was dossing and running green.

A little insight on relative ability I think.

So definitely a top 1 IMO.

Got to jump and get round though.

But I thought Majborough was outpaced and not quick enough in the Triumph

[Quevega]

But I thought Majborough was outpaced and not quick enough in the Triumph

Yeah, anyone who thought that should give the game up IMO

edit -
For the record, your response to me makes it look like that was something I was on board with. When it most certainly was the opposite and I would not want this stain on my reputation.

[Odin]

Anyone else feel like their Arkle position just fell apart this week (from a book building perspective)?

I started this week with the race completely sown up - Sir Gino/Maj/Leau/Mistergif/Ile Atlantique - convinced I had the winner and two places. I now find myself scrambling to cover horses like Jango Baie who isn't fast enough according to his own trainer, Only By Night who I'm sure isn't good enough so will almost certainly take on, and Gidleigh Park who wasn't going until yesterday but would be a threat at least in place terms. Bonkers situation...

[TigerRolllllll]

Anyone else feel like their Arkle position just fell apart this week (from a book building perspective)?

I started this week with the race completely sown up - Sir Gino/Maj/Leau/Mistergif/Ile Atlantique - convinced I had the winner and two places. I now find myself scrambling to cover horses like Jango Baie who isn't fast enough according to his own trainer, Only By Night who I'm sure isn't good enough so will almost certainly take on, and Gidleigh Park who wasn't going until yesterday but would be a threat at least in place terms. Bonkers situation...

Sadly this happens most years in at least one race

All you can do is accept it, embrace the chaos and dive in

I did get lucky as was online when rumours started building so smashed up the likely ones that you mention & ended up in a better position, albeit off higher stakes

it’s the worst time with ante post bets ….we all prob have horses we really want to run and each day you worry about news

Hope you end up in an ok place

ps- one thing I would recommend is some cover doubles on Ballyburn making a late switch ….,it’s not impossible

[That Horse]

Anyone else feel like their Arkle position just fell apart this week (from a book building perspective)?

I started this week with the race completely sown up - Sir Gino/Maj/Leau/Mistergif/Ile Atlantique - convinced I had the winner and two places. I now find myself scrambling to cover horses like Jango Baie who isn't fast enough according to his own trainer, Only By Night who I'm sure isn't good enough so will almost certainly take on, and Gidleigh Park who wasn't going until yesterday but would be a threat at least in place terms. Bonkers situation...

Swings and roundabouts isn't it? I had Gino in some doubles but because of the whole Fighting Fifth thing, I never felt comfortable adding him as a single arkle bet until it was way too late in terms of his odds. It means my other bets are looking good at the moment but until they line up, who knows what can happen.

If you're covering the ones you've highlighted, I take it you're already covered for Ballyburn?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Anyone else feel like their Arkle position just fell apart this week (from a book building perspective)?

I started this week with the race completely sown up - Sir Gino/Maj/Leau/Mistergif/Ile Atlantique - convinced I had the winner and two places. I now find myself scrambling to cover horses like Jango Baie who isn't fast enough according to his own trainer, Only By Night who I'm sure isn't good enough so will almost certainly take on, and Gidleigh Park who wasn't going until yesterday but would be a threat at least in place terms. Bonkers situation...

Maybe he meant JB weren’t fast enough when Sir Gino was running? And now with what he’s seen from others he now thinks he’s a fair chance? That’s just guessing of course but makes sense to me.
Certainly With his jumping he should able to lay up nicely and should finish strongly being a horse that’s won further at the course.
More I think about it the more excited I get for him running a big race.

[Odin]

Cheers guys - I strongly suspect I will be OK (should still breakeven/make small profit) and I'm just covering horses through fear of them winning rather than belief they will, which isn't necessarily the strongest strategy but it's where I'm at right now. It's a touch frustrating because literally the evening before I hovered over 33/1 Touch Me Not and 25/1 Only By Night NRNB but got distracted and then decided not to cover them. Them be the breaks as we know.

I'm fortunate as well that I don't have to cover any Ballyburn NRNB doubles because he's my biggest winner in the Arkle and Dancing is easily my biggest winner in the RSA so I essentially have the related double as things have worked out. Swings and roundabouts as you say That Horse

The other side of it - and this is just poor planning from me - is that it just detracts from handicap planning which is really where I should be by now. The more I do the book building, the more I'm in awe of the guys on here who can do it on every race, keep it all together and know everything that's going on. It's genuinely impressive!

[Odin]

Maybe he meant JB weren’t fast enough when Sir Gino was running? And now with what he’s seen from others he now thinks he’s a fair chance? That’s just guessing of course but makes sense to me.
Certainly With his jumping he should able to lay up nicely and should finish strongly being a horse that’s won further at the course.
More I think about it the more excited I get for him running a big race.

Yeah it was definitely he's not as fast as SG and the way he travelled last time suggested he'd be suited by a drop in trip for me but I don't like it when horses are moved around because of others - for right or wrong.
I think Maj wins if he gets around so everything else is realistically running for places, JB could easily place with the form he has, which then becomes a winning chance if Maj doesn't get around, which is why I'm scrambling to cover him but it's still plan B for him and the odds are at a point where the each way angle is garbage compared to what it was a few days ago - that's my biggest issue I think. How do you get a good place return on a horse you don't think wins if the odds are too short atm

[TigerRolllllll]

Agree Maj looks winner

But will be his first time off levels against older horses (was only 2 pounds in Dublin) …,and fast as his jumping style is, it also opens up more possibility of clouting one

Still looks a good race ….lot of ones we are talking about as place potential are mid 150 RPR horses…,that still makes it a strong Arkle & with a potential superstar in

[BigChaang]

Roll it up with some " Bankers " ?? . . - Odin.

[Quevega]

Anyone else feel like their Arkle position just fell apart this week (from a book building perspective)?

I started this week with the race completely sown up - Sir Gino/Maj/Leau/Mistergif/Ile Atlantique - convinced I had the winner and two places. I now find myself scrambling to cover horses like Jango Baie who isn't fast enough according to his own trainer, Only By Night who I'm sure isn't good enough so will almost certainly take on, and Gidleigh Park who wasn't going until yesterday but would be a threat at least in place terms. Bonkers situation...

For future reference, when you get in a position like this it's always worth working out what would happen if ?
I've had Majborough at big odds cos i took a view pre season that paid off.

But never had Gino as a single only in some solid doubles (C Hill & Ballyburn) both obvious enough and solid enough for me to lay him at 7/10 to cover those stakes and a bit more.
I even cashed the C Hill double when news broke of his injury as I calculated that I could get back on nearer the day (expecting Majboroughs price to get closer), and the risk wasn't worth it.

And during this time when Gino was odds on, Jango was available at 380-1 + bigger, Only by Night 330-1 and bigger, Ballyburn was as big as 200+ who I'd also not backed for the arkle at any point. Not to mention Gidleigh at triple figures. Even Caldwell Potter was 400+ and I was able to lay off a bit on him this week at 60's.

So the moral of this story is watch the exchange more, as even a pound at some of these prices is good cover for most punters staking levels.

It does mean though, that if you get too creative with your thinking then you can spray money all over betfair. (guilty )-
I've come out smelling of roses on the arkle but that's not the same in other races.

But if you are focussing on a handful of races and building books then it sounds like you could definitely benefit from some small plays on betfair for cover.

Horses like Jango and Only by Night I've been able to trim down (lay at shorter) and squeeze up returns on all others.

[TigerRolllllll]

For future reference, when you get in a position like this it's always worth working out what would happen if ?
I've had Majborough at big odds cos i took a view pre season that paid off.

But never had Gino as a single only in some solid doubles (C Hill & Ballyburn) both obvious enough and solid enough for me to lay him at 7/10 to cover those stakes and a bit more.
I even cashed the C Hill double when news broke of his injury as I calculated that I could get back on nearer the day (expecting Majboroughs price to get closer), and the risk wasn't worth it.

And during this time when Gino was odds on, Jango was available at 380-1 + bigger, Only by Night 330-1 and bigger, Ballyburn was as big as 200+ who I'd also not backed for the arkle at any point. Not to mention Gidleigh at triple figures. Even Caldwell Potter was 400+ and I was able to lay off a bit on him this week at 60's.

So the moral of this story is watch the exchange more, as even a pound at some of these prices is good cover for most punters staking levels.

It does mean though, that if you get too creative with your thinking then you can spray money all over betfair. (guilty )-
I've come out smelling of roses on the arkle but that's not the same in other races.

But if you are focussing on a handful of races and building books then it sounds like you could definitely benefit from some small plays on betfair for cover.

Horses like Jango and Only by Night I've been able to trim down (lay at shorter) and squeeze up returns on all others.

Spot on !!!!

Scenario planning is also fun & when u get it right it feels great ….like u have sneaked one against the head

Just to add, doubles also a good way as well as exchanges to build cover

I didn’t do Only by night til conversations on here so thx for those raising her