General Chat

[Quevega]

Agree Q. I think Sandor Clegane is equally good value though. He’s had a shocking passage through the race and has somehow finished 3rd! Was interfered with twice and went from front to back. Will go chasing next year, and I think Nolan is the type to prefer the BANC trip over the NHC.

Yeah, I agree in some respects.
The caveat would be the competition he will face in his novice races compared to the UK rivals Stay Away will likely face.
Which makes me think the current best price 20-1 is only par value. I'd back him at 33-1 or above.
At some stage next season you're likely to get a win today price around 20-1 or above for Sandor Clegane when he steps into graded company against a Mullins/Elliott Novice or 2.
So he's not one for me, as regards backing him now.
He may be one for later.

[darlojim]

Yeah, I agree in some respects.
The caveat would be the competition he will face in his novice races compared to the UK rivals Stay Away will likely face.
Which makes me think the current best price 20-1 is only par value. I'd back him at 33-1 or above.
At some stage next season you're likely to get a win today price around 20-1 or above for Sandor Clegane when he steps into graded company against a Mullins/Elliott Novice or 2.
So he's not one for me, as regards backing him now.
He may be one for later.

I think this is a great point regarding opposition they will face Q. I have covered both stay away fay and Captain teague because of this, I feel there's a very strong chance both could go through their season pre March unbeaten meaning theres a great chance you're going to beat the SP on english runners at the fez.

[JackieMoon33]

Stay Away Fay's price is probably one of the best value prices for next year right now as I'm sure/know others have mentioned.

To win the Bartlett from the front end like that and the way they weren't really gaining was impressive, and whilst I had big funds coming if Corbett's Cross didn't duck out, I don't think on balance he'd have got up, although I wouldn't argue too much either way.

Nicholls, I think had only 4 runners across the 7 novice races and managed to win 2 of them.
Compared to Mullins who won 3 of the novice races with approx 25 runners.

The British Novice chasers (even wanky ones, and handicappers) continue to compete pretty well with the Irish so having a Nicholls trained future chaser win an open Albert Bartlett is promising for the chances of this horse in a BANC.

Should probably be single figures, on balance.

The 16/1 with Bet365 is a very generous price considering he’s a festival winner and the trainer is always at his best with staying chasers. The 10’s and 8’s would be borderline though as I feel that the AB did not live up to being the deep contest I was expecting. Willie and Henry had fancied runners that were either tailed off or pulled up but maybe they simply weren’t good enough. There are also a few horses that could be aimed at the BANC but didn’t take in the AB and they could prove value too, including last years winner if over his injury.

[Quevega]

I think this is a great point regarding opposition they will face Q. I have covered both stay away fay and Captain teague because of this, I feel there's a very strong chance both could go through their season pre March unbeaten meaning theres a great chance you're going to beat the SP on english runners at the fez.

Yeah, it's a factor that needs considering at this stage of antepost betting, as the timing of your bet will no doubt influence the value you achieve or not.
It'll not always pan out as expected but the potential rivals a bet is likely to encounter prior to March is definitely one to factor into thoughts.

I've also backed Captain Teague, for the bartlett though.
This may not work out and he may stay at shorter trips.
But breeding looks promising for further and even if he runs in the challow, I think even Nicholls may not want to go for the ballymore this time around.
Aside from the curse, he'll have in mind the Irish horses that just seem to have more pace on the day for his better novices.

[Lobos]

Could SAF be a Stayers Hurdle type ?

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Could SAF be a Stayers Hurdle type ?

IMO he’ll only go for Stayers if he sucks over Fences. This is Paul Nicholls we’re talking about.

[Quevega]

IMO he’ll on go for Stayers if he sucks over Fences. This is Paul Nicholls we’re talking about.

And same owner had Topfothegame.
BANC most likely aim for now.

[Lobos]

And same owner had Topfothegame.
BANC most likely aim for now.

Thought it was The green and white Denman colours of Paul Barber ??

[Eggs]

Could SAF be a Stayers Hurdle type ?

….if you read the pre Festival stable tours, Nicholls was highlighting SAF as a staying chaser he’s really looking forward to. Anything he did over hurdles would be a bonus.

Somebody sent a request to PP for a BANC price & they initially went 50-1.

[Quevega]

Thought it was The green and white Denman colours of Paul Barber ??

Chris Giles owned with Barber
Giles owns Stay away with another fella