Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[Spectre]

Given the roll-ups seem to be popular, it seems to make sense to keep them to a thread of their own.

I'd suggest we add all the 'first leg' bankers and their price for roll ups in on here. Plus the suggested bets and combined odds, and I'll then put them all on the first page as they're added, so we can review how we do post-Festival.

My reasoning is that some of the banker bets will go down, but I think people here are shrewd enough for the combined odds to more than outweigh that.

At the end of this we can work out whether we beat the odds after the losing bankers are paid for, and whether the bets are profitable overall when the Festival is over.

Rather than apply everyone's individual staking plans, to keep it clean I'll do it based on a 2 point win stake and 1 point each way stake for combined odds and returns.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not Cheltenham but Top Of The Game 8/1 in the Ladbroke Trophy. Target confirmed, trainer knows what is needed to win the race and goes off around half the current price.

[Lobos]

Not Cheltenham but Top Of The Game 8/1 in the Ladbroke Trophy. Target confirmed, trainer knows what is needed to win the race and goes off around half the current price.

Not keen on him for Ladbroke as per comments in NH Racing thread.

[SharpHat]

The ones i have running at the minute are Galvin in the Galway Plate (10/1) and Siskin in the Sussex (6/4)

Ive doubled Galvin with my shorter priced fancies (shiskin, envoi, al boum photo) and Siskin with the longer priced ones (lisnagar oscar, staker wallace, quilixios)

I like these bets as they are in events i would have bet in anyway, so mentally ive already budgeted some money to lose on them, makes it feel like free bets when the first leg wins, maybe thats just me. It gets risky when you start betting on events you have no interest in just to try and get a rollup going, ive been down that road too and it doesnt end well.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not keen on him for Ladbroke as per comments in NH Racing thread.

I'll take a look.

[Kevloaf]

Glen Force in the 7.25 at Ayr tonight if he hits evens

[KingSprinterSacre]

Like i said in the Skybet thread ive been doing quite a few rollups.
Just done my 2nd cash rollup (the rest have been freebets). The other cash rollup has Ferny hollow for the Supreme at 44.5/1 (other legs are all up).

Shiskin arkle
Chelsea tonight - home to relegated Norwich. Must win game in their hunt for champions league football. Toyed with -1 handicap but decided to play it safe.
Atalanta over 1.5 goals team goals tonight - 4th place home to relegation bound Brescia. Atalanta have scored atleast 2 goals in their last 8 home games while Brescia have conceded atleast 2 in 7 of their last 8 away games.
Barcelona to win - 2nd place home to midtable. Must win game with Madrid on the cusp of the title.
Leeds win - top of the league leeds home to bottom side on Thursday. Leeds can all but seal a return to the prem with a win here.
Man city to beat Arsenal at the weekend - city going for another fa cup and i expect them to have far too much firepower for Arsenals awful defence.

Rollup pays 11.53/1 with Bet365 and cashout.

Prices of the individual teams may not be to everyones liking but the overall accum looks good on paper but anything can happen - look at those tubes United conceding in the 96th min last night

[The King Pimm]

Good idea for the thread KSS. I do them on the roll ups mainly on the weekend racing so will post mine on Saturday morning.

[BookieBasher]

Clan Des Obeaux 6/1 for the King George is in a few of my Cheltenham bets to hopefully boost up the odds. Think I heard Nicholls won’t be wasting time sending him to Cheltenham next year so King George will be his Gold Cup

[Kevloaf]

Clan Des Obeaux 6/1 for the King George is in a few of my Cheltenham bets to hopefully boost up the odds. Think I heard Nicholls won’t be wasting time sending him to Cheltenham next year so King George will be his Gold Cup

I think he's very solid to be in the front 3 in the King George, no matter how deep it looks on paper, he has to be a worthy favourite!

[KingSprinterSacre]

Have CDO backed myself.
I can see that race cutting up bigtime. The only horse in the field under 20/1 i could put as definite runner would be CDO.
Santini doubtful. LIT - depends on triple crown bid but may skip after last year? Champ - hope he runs (any positive vibes id back). Dont think kemboy, monalee or allaho will travel with targets at home. The hennessy is topofthegame target, would only be a maybe for the KG. Cyrname will only be a maybe, will have his haydock targets. Defi seemingly targeting the 2m races again

[BigChaang]

I've had a bet on kev's favourite horse for the king george @ 33-1..
2nd in the ryanair this year.

[somer1]

Just laced this for a bit of fun.........
Treble
Almighwar 4/9 Kempton 7.15
Siskin 6/4 Sussex Stakes
Shishkin 4/1 Arkle

[Eggs]

....took a bit of 14-1 for Good Birthday in Saturday’s John Smith’s and popped it in a double with Shishkin for the Arkle.

[Salubrious Chin]

As mentioned by gjt here Tiz The Law is priced up 6/4 for his next race in the Travers Stakes 8th August. Having won the Belmont Stakes comfortably this next race is a stepping stone onto the Kentucky Derby where he is top price 6/4 (Hills) but as low as Evens (365).

Therefore 6/4 for the Travers looks overpriced and I agree with gjt that he should be a 1/2 shot. His nearest rival in the betting, Uncle Chuck, is 4/1 however his trainer Bob Baffert was handed a 15 day suspension yesterday after two of his horses failed drug tests. This will start 1st Aug, although his legal team will challenge it.

I've placed 0.5pt doubles on the following horses:

Bob Olinger (Ballymore) 25/1 = Becomes 64/1 if Tiz wins
Chantry House (Marsh) 16/1= Becomes 41.5/1 if Tiz wins
Saint Roi (Churdle) 20/1 = Becomes 51.5/1 if Tiz wins
Saldier (Churdle) 25/1 = Becomes 64/1 if Tiz wins
Darver Star 33/1 (Marsh) = Becomes 84/1 if Tiz wins
PTKO (QMCC) 20/1 = Becomes 51.5/1 if Tiz wins

I will likely do 1pt Envoi Allen (RSA) 7/1 as cover for the Marsh, as Betfair are joint top price. This doubles up to 19/1 and could potentially cash out for small profit once his Cheltenham target becomes clearer.

Finally one treble with Siskin 11/8 (Sussex) and Bob Olinger (Ballymore) 25/1
= Becomes 153/1 if Tiz wins

Total stakes = 3.5pts (4.5pts inc. Envoi Allen)