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Having recently joined this forum, it has been so enlightening and educative to read the many posts, ideas and betting principles of people. There are so many topics ripe for discussion, and the knowledge within is fantastic. Once again, kudos to those who have created this forum, such a great idea and very user friendly. My hat off to you.
A topic that is always key (and I guess should be for nearly everyone here) for me, but which I hadn’t noticed under a ‘banner’ was the one of how each and everyone of us actually assesses value. How do we interpret if an evens money shot is great value or the worst bet in the world? I’ve always been fascinated by what value means to each and every person. And in nearly every instance, it means something different.
A good example, as I’ve touched on in my ‘ante post ‘22’ diary is the current price differential between Shishkin & Energumene for next year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase - it fascinates me. And I know it gets many punters talking. Both horses are rated identical, and yet one horse sits at 6/4 general (though 2/1 is available) and another at 5/1 available at several bookmakers. Both horses have proven they are genuinely a class above their peers, and on several occasions. But the bookmakers don’t have any information nor evidence of Energumene running at Cheltenham yet, on that specific course where Shishkin has once won a race despite looking in desperate trouble before the turn for home, and on the other occasion, hosed up by 12 lengths jogging the final furlong whilst all others are very hard off the bridle.
So though I’ve heard many conversations about why on earth both horses aren’t sitting around the 5/2 mark currently, the bookmakers have to surely assess what they know currently, and not what they don’t? And with Cheltenham course evidence?
It’s one that really intrigues me, and I’d love to learn of people’s thoughts.
As mentioned, I have a very unique approach when it comes to the festival - I hardly place any bets, if at all post Christmas, a few during the preceding Summer, but a very large majority before the festival 12 months in advance of the festival I’m actually wanting to place bets on. It serves me well. And it where I gain (despite 25% of bets being lost, I’m totally at ease with this) tremendous value.
When it comes to ‘value’ and betting on the festival (say, for 2022), I try to think like this -
*A fortnight before the 2021 festival, why take 4/9 on Monkfish (eventually went off 1/4) when you can take 8/1 on him winning a Gold Cup just 12 months later? Surely if all evidence and money making him a 4/9 shot over 3 miles and fences, then I don’t want that price. I want the 8/1 (and 12/1 a month earlier) readily available for a year later. We know which race he’s going, and if he’s 4/9 to win an ‘RSA’, surely the 8/1 halves over 5 mins later?
* The identical same with Shishkin. Why take 1/2 on an Arkle when the 5/1 at the very same time for 12 months later is readily available? We know where he’s going, and we also probably admit to ourselves that Shishkin might even win a Queen Mother a year in, advance if he didn’t run his Arkle. It was a possible result, for sure.
There are many, many examples of these type of ‘easy win’ bets I feel - Bob Olinger for the Marsh at 25/1 the day he hosed up in the Ballymore, and though I do spend an INCREDIBLE amount of time every day searching for value,most of many months in advance, it admittedly is a bonkers and brave way to do things, but just for me at least, is a sensible way of attaining value.
So I’m really intrigued - what represents value to people when they are placing a bet? What do they look for? How do they assess if a 1/2 bet is rubbish value, or if that 1/2 bet within days might become a 1/6 price and this attaining 3 times the price?
I’m fascinated by this subject matter. And will be totally intrigued to learn of everyone’s thoughts.
A topic that is always key (and I guess should be for nearly everyone here) for me, but which I hadn’t noticed under a ‘banner’ was the one of how each and everyone of us actually assesses value. How do we interpret if an evens money shot is great value or the worst bet in the world? I’ve always been fascinated by what value means to each and every person. And in nearly every instance, it means something different.
A good example, as I’ve touched on in my ‘ante post ‘22’ diary is the current price differential between Shishkin & Energumene for next year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase - it fascinates me. And I know it gets many punters talking. Both horses are rated identical, and yet one horse sits at 6/4 general (though 2/1 is available) and another at 5/1 available at several bookmakers. Both horses have proven they are genuinely a class above their peers, and on several occasions. But the bookmakers don’t have any information nor evidence of Energumene running at Cheltenham yet, on that specific course where Shishkin has once won a race despite looking in desperate trouble before the turn for home, and on the other occasion, hosed up by 12 lengths jogging the final furlong whilst all others are very hard off the bridle.
So though I’ve heard many conversations about why on earth both horses aren’t sitting around the 5/2 mark currently, the bookmakers have to surely assess what they know currently, and not what they don’t? And with Cheltenham course evidence?
It’s one that really intrigues me, and I’d love to learn of people’s thoughts.
As mentioned, I have a very unique approach when it comes to the festival - I hardly place any bets, if at all post Christmas, a few during the preceding Summer, but a very large majority before the festival 12 months in advance of the festival I’m actually wanting to place bets on. It serves me well. And it where I gain (despite 25% of bets being lost, I’m totally at ease with this) tremendous value.
When it comes to ‘value’ and betting on the festival (say, for 2022), I try to think like this -
*A fortnight before the 2021 festival, why take 4/9 on Monkfish (eventually went off 1/4) when you can take 8/1 on him winning a Gold Cup just 12 months later? Surely if all evidence and money making him a 4/9 shot over 3 miles and fences, then I don’t want that price. I want the 8/1 (and 12/1 a month earlier) readily available for a year later. We know which race he’s going, and if he’s 4/9 to win an ‘RSA’, surely the 8/1 halves over 5 mins later?
* The identical same with Shishkin. Why take 1/2 on an Arkle when the 5/1 at the very same time for 12 months later is readily available? We know where he’s going, and we also probably admit to ourselves that Shishkin might even win a Queen Mother a year in, advance if he didn’t run his Arkle. It was a possible result, for sure.
There are many, many examples of these type of ‘easy win’ bets I feel - Bob Olinger for the Marsh at 25/1 the day he hosed up in the Ballymore, and though I do spend an INCREDIBLE amount of time every day searching for value,most of many months in advance, it admittedly is a bonkers and brave way to do things, but just for me at least, is a sensible way of attaining value.
So I’m really intrigued - what represents value to people when they are placing a bet? What do they look for? How do they assess if a 1/2 bet is rubbish value, or if that 1/2 bet within days might become a 1/6 price and this attaining 3 times the price?
I’m fascinated by this subject matter. And will be totally intrigued to learn of everyone’s thoughts.
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