2022 Novice Chase Division

[Spectre]

That could well end up being true, but I wouldn't be giving up on Streets Over Doyen because of his jumping or being beaten at Worcester giving 12 pounds away to an improving Nicholls 130 chaser.

Staying on third in the Albert Bartlett ahead of some very useful horses doesn't suggest staying is a problem for him, and experience over fences counts for a lot in novice chases and open handicaps come March. McConnell is never shy of running his horses and you'd imagine he'll improve heaps in the next seven months. He'll probably run another three or four times before being put away when the winter ground arrives, and then brought back for a pre-Festival prep somewhere.

Depending on his handicap mark will presumably be the deciding factor whether he goes for one of the handicaps, or the NH Chase or RSA. Of the two novice chases the former is more likely where he would have a better chance with a good amateur on board. Whichever race he ends up in I've no doubt he'll head to the Festival, and I think an antepost bet on the NH Chase with cashout is fair enough,

[archie]

That could well end up being true, but I wouldn't be giving up on Streets Over Doyen because of his jumping or being beaten at Worcester giving 12 pounds away to an improving Nicholls 130 chaser.

Staying on third in the Albert Bartlett ahead of some very useful horses doesn't suggest staying is a problem for him, and experience over fences counts for a lot in novice chases and open handicaps come March. McConnell is never shy of running his horses and you'd imagine he'll improve heaps in the next seven months. He'll probably run another three or four times before being put away when the winter ground arrives, and then brought back for a pre-Festival prep somewhere.

Depending on his handicap mark will presumably be the deciding factor whether he goes for one of the handicaps, or the NH Chase or RSA. Of the two novice chases the former is more likely where he would have a better chance with a good amateur on board. Whichever race he ends up in I've no doubt he'll head to the Festival, and I think an antepost bet on the NH Chase with cashout is fair enough,

One man's 'staying on' is another man's 'running on at one pace'.

You wouldn't rule him out on the basis of one poor run but poor it was yesterday and there are no positives to be taken from it.

I only see this from the point of view of picking the winner with one or two bets. I quite accept that building a book is a different mindset especially with cash out.

[Spectre]

One man's 'staying on' is another man's 'running on at one pace'.

I think that's a fair point Archie, and I agree it's easy to interpret either way.

I think in the case of Streets Over Doyen, it's okay either way though. We know he has enough basic ability to take in decent races if he jumps well enough, and there is sufficient in his background to suggest a trip isn't an issue. In fact arguably getting 3m6f in the G2 NH Chase is easier than getting 3m in the G1 RSA.

Of course he didn't jump well enough at Worcester, and on a bad day, which he's had before, it's his basic ability that got him close enough to an improving novice giving a load of weight away. If McConnell sharpens up his jumping then I still see him as interesting. His overall profile also suggests a stiff track is better for him, and a flat track like Worcester may not play to his strengths.

The book approach is important as you point out though. I most definitely am not making a case for him as the winner of the NH Chase at this stage. Just that he's one I want in my mix at 40/1.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

One man's 'staying on' is another man's 'running on at one pace'.

You wouldn't rule him out on the basis of one poor run but poor it was yesterday and there are no positives to be taken from it.

I only see this from the point of view of picking the winner with one or two bets. I quite accept that building a book is a different mindset especially with cash out.

I would interpret ‘staying on’ as closing the gap to the leading horses approaching the finish, whereas ‘running on at one pace’ would more likely indicate no closure of the gap.

[Lobos]

I have a gut feeling that none of us on here have yet mentioned next year's NHC winner. He's out there somewhere though !! The race always throws up a surprise winner. I don't know the stats but I doubt very much that the eventual winner has ever been in the top 10 in the AP betting at this time of year. I do love the race though and am determined to have the winner again.

[Istabraq]

I have a gut feeling that none of us on here have yet mentioned next year's NHC winner. He's out there somewhere though !! The race always throws up a surprise winner.

I’d be fairly sure the majority of winners in the past 10-15 years were well fancied, perhaps not all short prices in August but certainly well touted by Autumn…

[Lobos]

I’d be fairly sure the majority of winners in the past 10-15 years were well fancied, perhaps not all short prices in August but certainly well touted by Autumn…

Autumn yes, August.... very much doubt many if any were in top 10 of betting. Don't suppose there's any hope of checking it though??? There's a 100/1 shot lurking out there now.

[Spectre]

Galvin last year Lobos!

[Istabraq]

Ravenhill and Rathvinden would both have been high on the list in ante post books, both ironically coming through the previous Summer novice chase programme…

[Lobos]

Think all 3 of those would have been 33s+ at this time. Galvin was 20's TWAR as I backed him so would have been much bigger to win the NHC outright. Took 33's on Rathvinden at this time as well. Ravenhill would have been very big as he disappointed at Galway.

JUST looked through last year's posts ....... Galvin was 25's on August 22 ......not sure who was head of the market though.

[Lbur4288]

I am intending to get The Bosses Oscar into my book for the NH chase. 33/1 in places at the moment and ticks a lot of boxes for me.

[Garrison Savannah]

I am intending to get The Bosses Oscar into my book for the NH chase. 33/1 in places at the moment and ticks a lot of boxes for me.

You’re not the only one - though I think it’d be wise to wait to hear of his well being after lto

[Lobos]

You’re not the only one - though I think it’d be wise to wait to hear of his well being after lto

Agree. Stable tours won't be too long coming once the crappy Flat season is done with !

[Istabraq]

I am intending to get The Bosses Oscar into my book for the NH chase. 33/1 in places at the moment and ticks a lot of boxes for me.

I’ve got a sneak he’ll be their Kim Muir horse.
The experience Run Wild Fred has accumulated as well as the ability he has shown suggests to me he’ll be the Elliott #1 horse for the NHC.
That would give Elliott two serious chances of gold…

[Lbur4288]

I’ve got a sneak he’ll be their Kim Muir horse.
The experience Run Wild Fred has accumulated as well as the ability he has shown suggests to me he’ll be the Elliott #1 horse for the NHC.
That would give Elliott two serious chances of gold…

We would have to see a few losing runs if he was to go down that path to bring his UK rating down. Wouldnt be the first time that's been done.