One way to narrow the field for the Aintree Grand National is to look at the stats profile of previous winners.
There are a number of variables which can be looked at including the age of the horse, the weight the horse is carrying, where it was bred, starting price, previous course form, and the jockey or trainer. Lets us start by listing the winners since 1981 :
| Year | Horse | Age | Weight | Jockey | Trainer | SP | Run |
| 2015 | Many Clouds | 8 | 11-09 | L P Aspell | O Sherwood | 25/1 | 39 |
| 2014 | Pineau De Re | 11 | 10-06 | L P Aspell | Dr RPD Newland | 25/1 | 40 |
| 2013 | Auroras Encore | 11 | 10-03 | Ryan Mania | Sue Smith | 66/1 | 40 |
| 2012 | Neptune Collonges | 11 | 11-06 | Daryl Jacob | Paul Nicholls | 33/1 | 40 |
| 2011 | Ballabriggs | 10 | 11-00 | Jason Maguire | Donald McCain | 14/1 | 40 |
| 2010 | Don’t Push It | 10 | 11-05 | Tony McCoy | Jonjo O’Neill | 10/1 | 40 |
| 2009 | Mon Mome | 9 | 11-02 | Liam Treadwell | Venetia Williams | 100/1 | 40 |
| 2008 | Comply or Die | 9 | 10-09 | Timmy Murphy | David Pipe | 7/1 JF | 40 |
| 2007 | Silver Birch | 10 | 10-06 | Robbie Power | Gordon Elliott IRE | 33/1 | 40 |
| 2006 | Numbersixvalverde | 10 | 10-08 | Niall Madden | Martin Brassil IRE | 11/1 | 40 |
| 2005 | Hedgehunter | 9 | 11-01 | Ruby Walsh | Willie Mullins IRE | 7/1 F | 40 |
| 2004 | Amberleigh House | 12 | 10-10 | Graham Lee | Donald McCain | 16/1 | 39 |
| 2003 | Monty’s Pass | 10 | 10-07 | Barry Geraghty | Jimmy Mangan IRE | 16/1 | 40 |
| 2002 | Bindaree | 8 | 10-04 | Jim Culloty | Nigel Twiston-Davies | 20/1 | 40 |
| 2001 | Red Marauder | 11 | 10-11 | Richard Guest | Norman Mason | 33/1 | 40 |
| 2000 | Papillon | 9 | 10-12 | Ruby Walsh | Ted Walsh IRE | 10/1 | 40 |
| 1999 | Bobbyjo | 9 | 10-00 | Paul Carberry | Tommy Carberry IRE | 10/1 | 32 |
| 1998 | Earth Summit | 10 | 10-05 | Carl Llewellyn | Nigel Twiston-Davies | 7/1 F | 37 |
| 1997 | Lord Gyllene | 9 | 10-00 | Tony Dobbin | Steve Brookshaw | 14/1 | 36 |
| 1996 | Rough Quest | 10 | 10-07 | Mick Fitzgerald | Terry Casey | 7/1 F | 27 |
| 1995 | Royal Athlete | 12 | 10-06 | Jason Titley | Jenny Pitman | 40/1 | 35 |
| 1994 | Miinnehoma | 11 | 10-08 | Richard Dunwoody | Martin Pipe | 16/1 | 36 |
| 1993 | Void Race | ||||||
| 1992 | Party Politics | 8 | 10-07 | Carl Llewellyn | Nick Gaselee | 14/1 | 40 |
| 1991 | Seagram | 11 | 10-06 | Nigel Hawke | David Barons | 12/1 | 40 |
| 1990 | Mr Frisk | 11 | 10-06 | Marcus Armytage | Kim Bailey | 16/1 | 38 |
| 1989 | Little Polveir | 12 | 10-03 | Jimmy Frost | Toby Balding | 28/1 | 40 |
| 1988 | Rhyme ‘N’ Reason | 9 | 11-00 | Brendan Powell | David Elsworth | 10/1 | 40 |
| 1987 | Maori Venture | 11 | 10-13 | Steve Knight | Andrew Turnell | 28/1 | 40 |
| 1986 | West Tip | 9 | 10-11 | Richard Dunwoody | Michael Oliver | 15/2 | 40 |
| 1985 | Last Suspect | 11 | 10-05 | Hywel Davies | Tim Forster | 50/1 | 40 |
| 1984 | Hallo Dandy | 10 | 10-02 | Neale Doughty | Gordon Richards | 13/1 | 40 |
| 1983 | Corbiere | 8 | 11-04 | Ben De Haan | Jenny Pitman | 13/1 | 41 |
| 1982 | Grittar | 9 | 11-05 | Mr Dick Saunders | Frank Gilman | 7/1 F | 39 |
| 1981 | Aldaniti | 11 | 10-13 | Bob Champion | Josh Gifford | 10/1 | 39 |
Using this data we can profile a typical Grand National Winner. What we seem to be looking for is a horse fitting these trends:
Age : As you can see in the last decade the winner has been aged either 9 or 10 on six occasions. Before Many Clouds last year Bindaree in 2002 had been the last 8 year old winner. The previous three winners were aged 11.
Weight : This has become tricky to call. Between 2009 and 2012 the winner carried 11st or more to victory. The advice used to be to rule these horses out. The 2013 and 2014 renewals had reaffirmed the old trend with 10 6 and 10 3 carried to victory in 2014 and 2013. Only one horse in the first 16 ( Rocky Creek 11-5) carried more than 11 st in 2014. Then Many Clouds wins in 2015 under 11 9 – the highest carried to victory since Red Rum in 1974.
Starting Price: Just five favourites have won in the past 30 years but you would just have about got your money back if you backed them all ! The Grand National is not quite the lottery some would have us believe. Mon Mome’s success at 100/1 in 2009 and Aurora Encore at 66/1 in 2013 ( returned 133/1 on the tote) are real outliers in terms of price. The 2012 winner Neptune Collonges, Red Maurader and Silver Birch were next highest priced winners at 33/1. We normally advise to focus on the top 8 ( i.e. 20% of the field ) in the betting. Over the last twenty years over 65 % of the winners have come from this group.
Trainer: Paul Nicholls won this for the first time in 2012 and Nicky Henderson have yet to win this race. An Irish trained horse has not won since Silver Birch in 2007 but they should still be respected. Bobbyjo’s win for the Carberry’s in 1999 sparked a brief period of Irish dominance and they have won 6 of the last 16 (37%) renewals from c. 20% of all runners.
Previous Races : No winner since 1970 had failed to win over at least three miles beforehand. A trip over the fences is also a positive. 8 of the last 13 winners had had a trip over the fences beforehand. A run within 50 days is also preferred. Aldaniti in 1981 was the last to have had a prep run more than seven weeks beforehand.
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Grand National Meeting 2016 Previous Winners And 10 Year Trends
