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2015 Arkle Trophy Chase

Can't argue with that Mayo, superb performance great to watch, brilliant ride too, kept him under some restraint till within half mile then let him go.
 
That was amazing to watch. Surely a performance that will scare off a few in the Arkle.
 
WOW, gives clarcam 10lb and a15 length beating.....that will silence any doubters!
 
UDS was brillant for sure and is a worthy Arkle favourite but ....

I think until he wins the Arkle there will in my mind be some doubt that you can win around Cheltenham running like that. Also seems to get a bit worked up in the prelims so will have that to handle.

Jumped well in the main and could be the next chasing superstar.

 
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Old Vic said:
UDS was brillant for sure and is a worthy Arkle favourite but ....

I think until he wins the Arkle there will in my mind be some doubt that you can win around Cheltenham running like that. Also seems to get a bit worked up in the prelims so will have that to handle.

Jumped well in the main and could be the next chasing superstar.
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I remember One Man running like that to win the Champion chase many years ago, he then suffered a fatal injury at Aintree a few weeks later. If UDS stays on his feet it's difficult to see anything that will lay up with him after that, it should be a great spectacle if he can repeat that performance.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>RP ratings: Un De Sceaux rating high enough to win 19 of last 20 Arkles <a href="http://t.co/p7gOTJiKe5">pic.twitter.com/p7gOTJiKe5</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/559457694344830977">January 25, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
He really ran away from them in the home straight and there is nothing in Ireland to beat him.

It will suit Vibrato having something to shoot at but hard to believe he is up to the sakes level as UDS.

If he handles the prelims and downhill fence he wins.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Betfair sportsbook are 7/2 for UDS to win today and the Arkle if anyone's interested.
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That was massive !

I had some doubts but thought that was a stunning perfomance yesterday, He will go off odds on.

Looks like another Ruby Tuesday. Douvan UDS Faugheen Annie Power all will be worthy favourites.
 
Gault Stats

https://sites.google.com/site/gault...ndent-arkle-challenge-trophy-chase-grade-1-2m

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1) 2m

Not 8 yrs of age or older unless Grade 1 Chase winner and rated in high 150s. Hasn’t finished outside the first two on any completed chase start in England or Ireland. 1st or 2nd last time out and has had previous run since Jan 1. Has won at least 50% of all completed chase starts. Hasn't fallen in a chase. Won’t have run more than five times over fences. A chase win in a time under 4 minutes 1 sec or Grade 2 Hurdle winning time under 4 minutes is useful. French bred to be placed. Will have been rated over hurdles in excess of 142 or unbeaten over fences. Will have been favourite or second favourite last time out. Check 2014 Festival novice form. Won’t be a mare. Might be wearing blinkers for the first time. Course winner or Festival placed. Form over 2m 4f would be useful. Not Northern trained.

AGE Sizing Europe 2010 and Moscow Flyer 2002 only winners for those aged 8 since Commandante ’90. Both Sizing and Moscow rated in the high 150s when running in this and both had won the Grade 1 novice chase in December at Leopardstown. 8 yr olds do get placed. 2011 Finians Rainbow 2nd, '10 Osana 3rd, Kalahari King 2nd in '09. No 9 year old winner since Danish Flight '88. One of the great Cheltenham stats. Rock On Ruby hated the fences last year and finished last. But more of him later.
5 yr olds - Do well with smaller numbers but allowance stopped after '08. 4 winners from 12 races with approximately 20% of the runners. His Excellency 3rd of 7 runners 2013. No 5 yr olds in 3 of the last 4 years.

PRICE Favourites not a great recent record until Simonsig 2013 and Sprinter Sacre 2012. Before those only Azertyuiop ’03, Klairon Davis ’95, Remittance Man ’91. Medermit (11/4), Captain Cee Bee (5/2), Noland, War of Attrition, Sybillin, Mulligan, Decoupage and Seebald all short prices and turned over.

Western Warhorse 33s first winner priced over 11/1 since Waterloo Boy ’89. Baily Green 2nd at 33s 2013 first since Ashley Brook '05 to be placed at 20/1 plus. Only 7 horses 20/1 and over have been placed in past 20 races. As I wrote last year 'If any race is due an upset..'
Last 21 winners were favourite or second favourite on their previous run.

TRAINERS Northern based - Kahahari King 2nd '09, Tidal Bay won '08 and Monets Garden’s 2nd to Voy ’06 improves their performance from the previous decade. Overturn well beaten at 7/2 in 2013.

Irish trained 5 of the last 19 including Sizing Europe '10, Forpadytheplasterer '09, Moscow Flyer ’03 and seven others placed out of 55 triers over past 15 years. (Champagne Fever hd 2nd, Trifolium (deceased) 3rd last year. 2013 Baily Green 2012 Blackstairsmountain and Foildubh unpl. 2011 Realt Dubh 3rd).

N. Henderson. Five wins, two seconds and two thirds from 18 runners in past 21. Grandouet unpl last year. Before the Sig and Sprinter Sacre last winner was Tuitchev in 2000. He has run four horses here who had a hurdle rating in excess of 145. Three won and Finians Rainbow was second (Thanku Nick Mordin, Irish Field) Josses Hill has rating in excess of 150.

M/D. Pipe. 5 wins, 2 seconds and a third from 15 runners in past 18. Nothing placed for 7 years and then Western Warhorse. D Pipe immediately admitted that he had spent the previous two weeks trying to persuade the owner, Roger Brookhouse, not to run him. What chance have we?

P. Nicholls. In last 13 has had 19 runners. Two winners, four thirds. However since Azer '03 only three thirds from 14 runners. (Dodging Bullets unpl last year. No runner 2013, Al Ferof unpl 2012). P Nicholls currently on a losing run of 77 with Festival chasers. Petit Zig, Vibrato Valtat
A. King has only ever had 6 runners in this. Jahash in ’04 was 4th at 150/1, Kadount ’05 was travelling well when UR four out and then he won it twice with Voy Por Ustedes and My Way De Solzen. 2011 Medermit his first runner for 4 years and favourite, only 4th. No entries 2013. Valdez only 4th last year.

FORM Only Contraband (3rd) and Moscow Flyer (F) of the last 23 winners was not finish 1st or 2nd in their previous race. Of those 22 only Moscow and Ventana Canyon had actually fallen that season.

28 from last 30 winners not outside first 2 on any completed chase start that season in GB or Ire. (Not Contraband and Galas Image). Western Warhorse had won his only chase.

18 from last 23 had won at least 50% of their completed chase starts. Not Captain Chris, only one win from 4 runs.

21 of last 27 had won at least twice over fences. (Three of the exceptions where trained by M/D Pipe, Forpadytheplasterer had been 2nd in three Grade 1 chases).
Azertyuiop only winner since Anaglogs Daughter in 1980 to make most of the running. And he only took it up at the 3rd after the fall of Le Roi Miguel (Un De Sceaux)
Last 18 no more than 5 runs over fences. No headgear wearing winners in the 16 before first time blinkers on Western Warhorse.

Western Warhorse became the 5th winner since 1987 to have had less than 3 chase runs.

6 from last 7 had won over 2m 4f. Not Forpady, only had won over 2m 2f. Not Sprinter Sacre, only 2nd in an 2m 4f novice hurdle.

Only 9 from last 14 had won a Chase by Tingle Creek Day (7th December). Not Captain Chris, Well Chief or any of the last three.

SUPREME NOVICE? Champagne Fever won the Supreme before being nutted on the line here. To credit Ruby, he has been on RUK since explaining in detail why and when he should have kicked on a bit earlier. Simonsig won a Neptune. Sprinter Sacre 3rd in Supreme Novice before winning here had finished behind Al Ferof in the hurdle, Somersby 3rd in Supreme Novices before 2nd here 2010, Kalahari King 4th in Supreme Novice '08 before 2nd here '09. Noland won Supreme '06, 3rd here '08, Wild Passion 2nd Supreme '05, 4th here in '06. Medermit 2nd Supreme Novice '09 before failing here. Vautour, Josses Hill, Sgt Reckless.

COURSE FORM Only Voy Por of the last 12 winners had never run here before. Western Warhorse had been 2nd in a Cl3 hurdle off 125. The other 10 had 'good' course form. Definition as follows. Either a course winner or placed at a previous festival. Stat stretched to include Forpadytheplasterer had finished 4th in a G1 Neptune. The other 7 had also either won at least a G3 here or been placed in G2 or G1.

Irish winners of this finished placed 311211 in the December Leopardstown 2 mile novice. 2013 Defy Logic beat Trifolium and Champagne Fever. This season Clarcam a long way in front of Vautour and Ted Veale. 2011 Realt Dubh 3rd here after winning at Leopardstown. Winners of this who had run in the Irish Arkle finished 111U1FF2 in Ireland. Un De Sceaux hacked it. Clarcam well beaten

Boreen Prince 1985 last runner up in Champion Hurdle to win this the following year. Overturn failed in 2013.

Apart from Sizing Europe all winners since 1966 had had a run since Jan 1st.

Kingmaker (Warwick, Feb 7) prep race with best current record. Winner of that has finished 0123U126 in this. Bs. No Scilly Isles winner has doubled up in last 19. Oy. Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton won by Remittance man, Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig. Vibrato Valtat narrowly from Three Kingdoms. Captain Chris won after success in the 2m 4f Pendil Chase at Kempton Bs

TIMES This race is usually run in a time under 4 minutes 3 secs (2014 3mins 47 secs 2013 Simonsig did 4 mins 2 in soft ground). The three years previous were all run in 3 mins 52. 11 of last 17 winners had already won a chase in a time under 4 minutes 1 second or had posted a time under 4 minutes in at least a Grade 2 Hurdle (Sizing Europe 3.50 for an Irish Champion). Exceptions include Western Warhorse, Or Royal and Tuitchev who all had yet to contest a 2 mile chase although the latter had been 6th in the previous years Champion Hurdle. (Petit Zig finished 6th in last year's Champion Hurdle) The other exceptions were Tidal Bay who had posted a time of 4mins 6 over 2m ½ furlong when 2nd at Doncaster, Captain Chris, a course hurdle winner and G2 Pendil winner last time out and finally Simonsig, a Festival G1 winner.

2015 contenders best times.

Clarcam - 4 mins 36s1 at Leop Xmas 2m 1f.
Vautour - 4 mins 30s Navan, 3 mins 46 secs for a Supreme Novice.
Vibrato Valtat 4 mins dead for Henry VIII at Sandown, 4 mins 8 secs at Kempton both 2miles
Bmins 3 secs Kingmaker Warwick Heavy ground

BREEDING 8 of last 20 winners were French bred from about 25% of runners. 12 weren't. However a French bred has been placed at least in 11 of last 15 (Trifolium last year). Only 11 German breds have run. Well Chief hacked home, two seconds and a third. Kruguyrova '08 only placed mare of ten which have run in the past 17 years. Last mare to win Analog’s Daughter ‘80.

RATINGS 13 of last 15 rated at least 142 over hurdles. (Western Warhorse was 125, Voy Por Ustedes not officially rated but likely to not have been much over 120 - both were unbeaten over fences). 7 of last 13 had rating of 157 plus and were the top rated hurdler. 2013 Simonsig second top rated hurdler, 2012 Sprinter Sacre lowest hurdle rating 145 of first 4 home. In '11 4 of the 10 were rated 142+ and finished 1st, 2nd, 4th. In '10 8 of the 12 were rated 142+ and filled the places with the top two rated finishing 1st and 3rd. In '09, 7 of the 16 had hurdle ratings 140 and above and they filled the first 4 places. In ‘08 Tidal Bay was top rated on 149, Clopf next (fell). This year Valdez top hurdle rating currently 135

5 of last 8 winners had won a Pattern race over hurdles (not Captain Chris, Sprinter Sacre or Western Warhorse).
 
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That gualt site is good.

Clarcam was (probably over) rated 156 and UDS stuffed him by 15L giving him 10lbs. The 171 rating looks lofty but thats your basis for it.
 
Grade1 said:
That gualt site is good.

Clarcam was (probably over) rated 156 and UDS stuffed him by 15L giving him 10lbs. The 171 rating looks lofty but thats your basis for it.
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I think there is a fair amount of guesswork with novice ratings, if the 171 is accurate then UDS is probably in the wrong race with the Arkle, given improvement that you could expect from the race he should be in the QM. I know that's fanciful and Willie Mullins is too careful with his charges for that, it would be realistic to expect UDS to come on 8lbs for the weekend, giving him a rating of 179, I don't think that would put him far away whatever else turned up, even Sprinter would have to be back to his best to finish ahead of him.
 
Punters suggesting UDS for the QM just dont know how Wullie Mullins operates.That would be totally against the grain for mullins to throw a novice into the top 2m chase....he dosent do things like that.
 
How many will take on UDS /

Each way value somewhere ?
 
iainmcf said:
Punters suggesting UDS for the QM just dont know how Wullie Mullins operates.That would be totally against the grain for mullins to throw a novice into the top 2m chase....he dosent do things like that.
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If you mean me Iain I'm not suggesting UDS for the QM, I'm merely stating that if the ratings are correct then the Arkle is more of a walkover than a race and the correct race for a 2 mile chaser with that level of reting would be the QM. After the extreme caution that Mullins has excercised with the horse I certainly wouldn't expect him to break his scheduling at this stage. To put it into perspective he has already achieved a higher rating than Sprinter Sacre achieved in winning the Arkle and with the expected improvement he will be within a few pounds of the level Sprinter achieved in winning the QM, and there is nothing in that race, including the great horse himself, likely to reach a figure close to that this year. It's a mighty testament to UDS that he has reached that level with only 2 completed chases under his belt, and that lack of experience is what will keep him in novice company, as it should, I don't agree with running inexperienced horses in championship races.
 
Both Sprinter and Simonsig had high ratings going into the Arkle just like UDS, and the correct race for a chaser with those tyoe of ratingss would be the QM but not if they are novices so I would have to disagree MrMcG.
 
I don't like to see novices run in other than novice company myself, as I said in my post, but in an interview with timeform on ATR this morning they showed the comparable stats for horses over the last ten years. UDS is already rated higher than Sprinter achieved in winning the Arkle, let alone his final prep race for the Arkle, so given the horses set to line up in the QM the rating UDS is likely to achieve if he wins the Arkle would win the QM. I was just trying to put the horse into perspective in terms of where he stands compared to all the 2 mile chasers around, I read my post again though and it could be construed that I thought he should be re-routed, that's not what I meant, sorry for the confusion. I'm fairly certain Ruby is hoping to win the Arkle on UDS then go on to win the QM on Champagne Fever, After also collecting the Supreme, the Champion hurdle and the Mares race, warming him up for collecting the JLT and the Gold cup.
 
I must apologise if I interpreted your post wrongly MrMcG, its all about opinions and I respect all views and it makes it interesting to read others points of view, and I hope your right re Ruby a la Supreme, Arkle, and Gold Cup(if he chooses Boston Bob).
 
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