Tweet
No thread on the favourite ...couldnt find it anyway 
Mordin
The Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse is a very important Grand National Trial. Since it was first run ten horses have reached the first three in it while earning Racing Post ratings bigger than 150 (like this year's 123) and then gone on to run in the Grand National that same season. Four of the ten placed in the Grand National, as you can see from their record below:
2005....Hedgehunter...................WON
2008....Snowy Morning..............third
............Hedgehunter...................thirteen th
2009....Black Apalachi..............unseated (when leading 22nd)
............Snowy Morning.............ninth
2010....Black Apalachi..............second
............Vic Venturi....................unseated (when prominent 20th)
2011....Oscar Time......................second
............The Midnight Club.........sixth
...........Arbor Supreme...............fell
This year's Bobbyjo was a very strong contest in which the whole field were Grand National entrants. It was won by small field specialist ROI DU MEE (40) who showed once more that he can run fast enough to win a weak Grade 1 if the field is small enough. He's surely not big enough to cope with the huge field and giant fences at Aintree. But I'd be rather interested in his chances in the Betfred Bowl at the same meeting if six or less line up.
The runner up was PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (40) who is now favourite with several bookies for the Grand National. And I concede he ran a tremendous race.
However there are a couple of things about Prince De Beauchene that make him look a bad proposition for the Grand National - as I mentioned before he was forced to miss last year's race with a stress fracture of the hip.
Firstly there is the way that Prince De Beauchene races with his head rather low. This seems to ensure that when he lands a little steeply over a fence his jockey can't grab on to his neck to hang on as it's not within reach. This gives him much more chance of unseating his rider than other horses. Watch the video of the Bobbyjo Chase closely and you'll see this happened at the final fence where Prince De Beauchene was half on his knees landing over the jump and jockey Paul Townend got thrown forward slightly in the saddle.
This sort of thing is not of huge importance over normal fences. But over the giant fences on the Grand National course it's another matter.
The Grand National fences are taller than at other tracks and horses inevitably land more steeply - increasing the risk of them propelling their rider out of the saddle. It therefore makes sense that if a horse has unseated its rider at all recently it will be a poor risk to complete the course let alone win around Aintree. This has to be especially true for one with a low head carriage like Prince de Beauchene. To see what I mean download the video of the Bobbyjo and freeze it as he lands over the last and ask yourself what would happen to his jockey if he did that at Bechers.
Only one of the last twenty two Grand National winners (Bindaree) unseated their rider in one of their last seventeen starts before the big race. If the same proportion of National runners has unseated that recently over the last twenty two years as they have over the last fourteen then 267 have done so for that single success.
Prince De Beauchene unseated his rider nine runs back at Carlisle. He also unseated once in France (he was remounted to finish third).
The other concern is that Prince de Beauchene seems to get outpaced by the strong gallop that tends to build up around giant two mile plus ovals like Aintree. He's lost all three times he's run around tracks that big but prior to his smart Bobbyjo run he would have won eight of the last nine times he'd run beyond 12 furlongs on smaller tracks off breaks of ten weeks or less but for unseating that one time in France.
Mordin
The Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse is a very important Grand National Trial. Since it was first run ten horses have reached the first three in it while earning Racing Post ratings bigger than 150 (like this year's 123) and then gone on to run in the Grand National that same season. Four of the ten placed in the Grand National, as you can see from their record below:
2005....Hedgehunter...................WON
2008....Snowy Morning..............third
............Hedgehunter...................thirteen th
2009....Black Apalachi..............unseated (when leading 22nd)
............Snowy Morning.............ninth
2010....Black Apalachi..............second
............Vic Venturi....................unseated (when prominent 20th)
2011....Oscar Time......................second
............The Midnight Club.........sixth
...........Arbor Supreme...............fell
This year's Bobbyjo was a very strong contest in which the whole field were Grand National entrants. It was won by small field specialist ROI DU MEE (40) who showed once more that he can run fast enough to win a weak Grade 1 if the field is small enough. He's surely not big enough to cope with the huge field and giant fences at Aintree. But I'd be rather interested in his chances in the Betfred Bowl at the same meeting if six or less line up.
The runner up was PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (40) who is now favourite with several bookies for the Grand National. And I concede he ran a tremendous race.
However there are a couple of things about Prince De Beauchene that make him look a bad proposition for the Grand National - as I mentioned before he was forced to miss last year's race with a stress fracture of the hip.
Firstly there is the way that Prince De Beauchene races with his head rather low. This seems to ensure that when he lands a little steeply over a fence his jockey can't grab on to his neck to hang on as it's not within reach. This gives him much more chance of unseating his rider than other horses. Watch the video of the Bobbyjo Chase closely and you'll see this happened at the final fence where Prince De Beauchene was half on his knees landing over the jump and jockey Paul Townend got thrown forward slightly in the saddle.
This sort of thing is not of huge importance over normal fences. But over the giant fences on the Grand National course it's another matter.
The Grand National fences are taller than at other tracks and horses inevitably land more steeply - increasing the risk of them propelling their rider out of the saddle. It therefore makes sense that if a horse has unseated its rider at all recently it will be a poor risk to complete the course let alone win around Aintree. This has to be especially true for one with a low head carriage like Prince de Beauchene. To see what I mean download the video of the Bobbyjo and freeze it as he lands over the last and ask yourself what would happen to his jockey if he did that at Bechers.
Only one of the last twenty two Grand National winners (Bindaree) unseated their rider in one of their last seventeen starts before the big race. If the same proportion of National runners has unseated that recently over the last twenty two years as they have over the last fourteen then 267 have done so for that single success.
Prince De Beauchene unseated his rider nine runs back at Carlisle. He also unseated once in France (he was remounted to finish third).
The other concern is that Prince de Beauchene seems to get outpaced by the strong gallop that tends to build up around giant two mile plus ovals like Aintree. He's lost all three times he's run around tracks that big but prior to his smart Bobbyjo run he would have won eight of the last nine times he'd run beyond 12 furlongs on smaller tracks off breaks of ten weeks or less but for unseating that one time in France.
Comment