2025 Grand National

[Bluefox21]

Hope I haven't missed another thread.

Looking to be a real high quality field this year and unlikely to be an outright stamina test given forecasted conditions.

Nicholls appears to have a strong team and I've landed on Stay Away Fay at the prices. Partly as would love Bryony to come back and win the big one but also think this is a very nice horse who has lost his way a little bit and now at a low weight as a result.

80/1 with Wiliam Hill is more than far.

At the other end of the prices both Stumpton and Vanillier appeal. It's hard not to see both in the mix.

[Istabraq]

Have to say I disagree with the stamina angle, since they made these fences easier (too easy for me) horses go at them much quicker than they used to and give them no respect, I expect to see very few ‘Fs’ and plenty of ‘PU’.
I’d love to see a price on their being more PU than finishers…

[Istabraq]

100/1 Duffle Coat all gone now, some 66s around but general 50/1…

[Kauto’s star]

100/1 Duffle Coat all gone now, some 66s around but general 50/1…

Dammit, been banging on about this one for a while and haven’t managed to get on yet! 66s with coral it is then

[FinalFurlong91]

Is it just me that can't have stumptown winning at all

Setting myself up for egg on my face fully here

But he's been winning very uncompetitive cross country races against regressive old horses and is now going into the grand national

Queue him winning on the snaff and Keith donoghue shushing me as he crosses the line

[Bluefox21]

I guess the way he picked up in the cross country was pretty impressive and you know he will stay the trip.

I'd prefer Vanillier at the prices/weights though.

[Kauto’s star]

I guess the way he picked up in the cross country was pretty impressive and you know he will stay the trip.

I'd prefer Vanillier at the prices/weights though.

I agree, I’ve covered for the same reasons you’ve mentioned, but would prefer others if honest. I’m still devastated from Vanillier XC run at chelt so can’t bring myself to back him now

[FinalFurlong91]

Age – 8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 9
Price – 3 of the last 11 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 4/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 7/11 winners were priced 11/1 or bigger
Last Run – 5/11 winners won on their last run before the Grand National, 2/11 placed on their last run, 9/11 winners had their last run within the last 49 days
6/11 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival on their last run (2 in the Cross Country Chase, 2 in the Trophy Handicap Chase, 1 in the Pertemps Final, 1 in the Gold Cup)
Weights – 9/11 winners carried between 10st 3lbs and 11st 5lbs
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 3/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 10/11 winners had at least 5 runs over 3 miles or longer, 8/11 winners had at least 7 runs over 3 miles or longer, 8/11 had at least 1 win over 3 miles or longer, 7/11 had at least 2 wins over 3 miles or longer
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/11 winners had at least 6 runs over hurdles, 8/11 had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/11 winners had at least 9 previous chase runs, 9/11 had at least 2 previous chase wins, 8/11 had at least 3 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/11 winners were rated between 146 and 160
Grade Wins – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in grade 1-3 races
Season Form – 11/11 had at least 3 previous runs that season, 9/11 winners had no more than 6 runs that season, 9/11 had at least 1 previous win that season

A few trends

I edited the age one as it said 9 of the last 11 were 7 to 9 but imo that was misleading as there was only one 7 year old and he was the first for a very long time.

the interesting ones imo

11/11 3 or more runs
10/11 had 5 or more runs over 3 miles+
9/11 had won a race that season
9/11 carried 10st3 to 11st5
9/11 ran in last 49 days
8/11 aged 8 or 9

[Craigy14]

Age – 8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 9
Price – 3 of the last 11 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 4/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 7/11 winners were priced 11/1 or bigger
Last Run – 5/11 winners won on their last run before the Grand National, 2/11 placed on their last run, 9/11 winners had their last run within the last 49 days
6/11 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival on their last run (2 in the Cross Country Chase, 2 in the Trophy Handicap Chase, 1 in the Pertemps Final, 1 in the Gold Cup)
Weights – 9/11 winners carried between 10st 3lbs and 11st 5lbs
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 3/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 10/11 winners had at least 5 runs over 3 miles or longer, 8/11 winners had at least 7 runs over 3 miles or longer, 8/11 had at least 1 win over 3 miles or longer, 7/11 had at least 2 wins over 3 miles or longer
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/11 winners had at least 6 runs over hurdles, 8/11 had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/11 winners had at least 9 previous chase runs, 9/11 had at least 2 previous chase wins, 8/11 had at least 3 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/11 winners were rated between 146 and 160
Grade Wins – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in grade 1-3 races
Season Form – 11/11 had at least 3 previous runs that season, 9/11 winners had no more than 6 runs that season, 9/11 had at least 1 previous win that season

A few trends

I edited the age one as it said 9 of the last 11 were 7 to 9 but imo that was misleading as there was only one 7 year old and he was the first for a very long time.

the interesting ones imo

11/11 3 or more runs
10/11 had 5 or more runs over 3 miles+
9/11 had won a race that season
9/11 carried 10st3 to 11st5
9/11 ran in last 49 days
8/11 aged 8 or 9

Picking the bottom of your quote the interesting trends it looks like you’ll want to be backing Stumptown FF

I backed him while back and really like his chances to be honest. Prefer him over the 2 7 year olds at the top of the market. Would fancy Intense more if the ground was worse, but this will be the fastest he’s ever raced on.

[Quevega]

I find these trend lists amusing, especially the 8/10 type stats, or in this case 11.
I especially like it when the lists are put up like this in articles and then they never mention the horses that fit.

Stumptown, Hyland & Beauport.

I think
None will carry my money, although I would have concerns over Stumpy and Hyland.

[Call The Cops]

What do we think Jockey bookings will be? Will help further indicate pecking order and influence prices no doubt

Will be interesting to see who Mark Walsh picks out of Iroko, MOTW and Perceval Legallois, if Jonjo rides for his Dad or one of JPs battalion, if Patrick is going to add a few extra lbs to Nick Rocketts back and if Rachael rides Senior Chief we know all of a sudden we'll have another horse at 12/1 or shorter to add to the mix

1. I Am Maximus- Paul
2. Royale Pagaille- Charlie Deustch
3. Nick Rockett- Patrick
4. Grangeclare West- Brian Hayes
5. Hewick- Gavin
6. Minella Indo- Daragh O'Keefe?
7. Appreciate It- Sean O'Keefe?
8. Minella Cocooner- Danny
9. Conflated- Jordan Gainford?
10. Stumptown- Keith
11. Hitman- Freddie Gingell
12. Beauport- Tom Bellamy
13. Bravemansgame- James Reveley
14. Chantry House- Sean Bowen?
15. Threeunderthrufive- Harry Skelton
16. Perceval Legallois- Mark Walsh?
17. Kandoo Kid- Harry Cobden
18. Iroko- Jonjo?
19. Intense Raffles- JJ
20. Senior Chief- Rachael?
21. Idas Boy- Harry Bannister
22. Fil Dor- Danny Gilligan?
23. Broadway Boy- STD
24. Coko Beach- Sam Ewing?
25. Stay Away Fay- ?
26. Meetingofthewaters- Mark Walsh?
27. Monbeg Genius- Jonjo?
28. Vanillier- Sean Flanagan
29. Horantzau D'Airy- Ciaran Gethings
30. Hyland- Nico
31. Celebre D'Allen- Callum Pritchard?
32. Three Card Brag- Jack
33. Twig- Beau Morgan
34. Duffle Coat-?

[FinalFurlong91]

Horses that fit the trends i picked

Stumptown
beauport
hyland

monbeg genius and three card brag just missed the 49 days otherwise fit the others

Senior chief only has 4 runs at 3m+ so misses out but has 2 runs at 2m7f

My fancy kandoo kid has no chance on the trends having only run twice this season (the 11/11) and only having run over 3 miles+ twice (the 10/11) so would need to bust a few trends.

These are always fun to look at but trends are made to be broken

Perhaps I dismissed stumptown too easily lol

May have a few pennies on beauport and hyland for a laugh though

Beauport has tried extreme trips 4 times with form figures of P1P1 winning the midlands and Berkshire nationals pulling up in the classic chase and Scottish national. He seems best fresh or after a decent break.

[Old Vic]

Sean Bowen on Three Card Brag

https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/grand-national-festival/hes-been-a-very-lucky-rider-for-them-gordon-elliott-snaps-up-sean-bowen-to-ride-his-biggest-grand-national-hope-ahDsn1d3mIzA/

Nicholls announced his jockeys already also.

[Quevega]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHHhOpImKcw

nice watch. Papillon, ruby and his dad reminisce

[Old Vic]

J J could do with a winner before Saturday

on the cold list for 72 rides 69 days

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/jockey/88288/j-j-slevin

Trainer not on fire either

Last 14 days

Wins: 0Runs: 6(0%)
Since win jumps: 45 runs 111 days