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Reference logic theory. The 2018 virtual had Chase The Spud as a close second. PU previous two runs, PU in the real event itself!
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One thing I have picked up off the finishing line podcast is the liking of the horse having won or come second in it's last run. Most, but not all fit this trend in the virtual placings (I think 4 or 5 out of 6 each year). The good news is the shortlist were all first or second last time out, except Magic of Light whos was last in a hurdle race but won his last chase start. I've chucked Total Recall in as it has a lot in it's favour.
2pts ew Magic of Light
2pt win Any Second Now
1pt ew Walk in The Mill
1pt ew Kimberlite Candy
1pt ew Ballyoptic
1pt ew Total Recall
Potential trend busters would be. That I'd be worried about under 25-1
Ok Corral - Ran in four miler, which they appear to like but was PU, but also won last time, which also seems to be liked by the computer.
Burrows Saint - aged 7 and woman jockey and won irish national and last time out?Comment
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Originally posted by Quevega View Post
Another very strong trend: The last chase won by ALL TWELVE horses to place 1 to 4 in the last 3 virtual grand nationals was over a distance of at least three miles.
That may sound like stating the bleeding obvious.
But this is either one hell of a coincidence or horses who won last time over shorter trips - maybe a GN prep - are being penalised by the computer.
If the trend continues tomorrow 14 horses in the field have no chance of making the first four .
They include four of the top seven in the betting - and (deep intake of breath) two on Q's shortlist!!
Here's the list who fail the 3-mile test:
Aso
Peregrine Run
Alpha Des Obeaux
Magic of Light
Burrow Saint
Definitely Red
Tout Est Permis
Shattered Love
Any Second Now
Death Duty
Ramses De Teillee (last win was 3-mile hurdle and last chase win was over 2m 71/2f on heavy at Chepstow carrying 11st 10lbs so leaving him out is just a tad harsh!)
Valtor
Saint Xavier (won 3m hurdle race, before that won chase over 2m 71/2 f at Auteuil).
Warriors Tale
If you add the 3-mile trend to Q's discovery that the computer likes horses who have won or finished second last time out - you are left with only 11 possible winners.
They are:
Tiger Roll
Total Recall
The Storyteller
Ballyoptic
Ok Corral
Jury Duty
Acapella Bourgeois
Potters Corner
Kildisart
Kimberlite Candy
Walk in the Mill
Should you wish, you can go one step further to narrow the potential winners down even more: In the real Grand National 10 of the 16 placed horses in the last 4 years have run off a mark of between 147 and 152.
In tomorrow's virtual race just 5 horses qualify on all three of these virtual-real hybrid trends:
Acapella Bourgeois 33-1
Potters Corner 18-1
Kildisart 50-1
Kimberlite Candy 16-1
Walk in the Mill 16-1
I'd say this scenario certainly means a bold virtual show from KC and WITM is extremely likely.Last edited by nortonscoin200; 3 April 2020, 12:30 PM.Comment
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I think the staying trip form stat is a good callOriginally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
and they are unlikely to be able to factor in Plotted/target types that have prep runs over shorter or hurdles for example. This may go against some fancied types that have other ticks in boxes.
Consistent form over a trip and winning last time may help some unfashionable types.Comment
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It is looking good for the two at the bottom now.
Walk in the mill & Kimberlite candy have to go close.Comment
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Totally agree Q, reckon they are probably the two stand-out bets.Originally posted by Quevega View Post
But ignore 50-1 Kildisart at your peril .....reckon he might sneak into the first five at least!!Comment
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You've banged on it about that much, you've forced me into backing it.Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
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There used to be a very strong trend that horses not only won over 3m+ but had also chalked up a victory with a value of £20k+ (this used to be higher), proving that only classy horses can win...Comment
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Sorry, I've been like a broken record.Originally posted by Quevega View PostYou've banged on it about that much, you've forced me into backing it.
What I don't understand though is why they have priced him up at 50-1.
I totally accept your point that it's the computer that set the prices so it would be a bit odd if the same computer that made Kildisart one of the rags then allowed him to win.
But you would have thought he should be 25-1 tops as a horse in the right age bracket, at the right end of the handicap, as a 3m chase course winner and only being beaten a neck in the Ultima (often a good GN guide) giving away 11lbs to the winner
Had he been 25s am I wrong in thinking he may well have made your short-list?
Anyway, I promise to buy you a drink at the Cheltenham Festival next year if Kildisart doesn't make the frame.
Whatever the result it's been great fun having a horse racing puzzle to solve for the first time since the Festival.
Good luck with your bets.Last edited by nortonscoin200; 3 April 2020, 01:20 PM.Comment
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My bets are placed
Walk in the Mill
Ballyoptic
Kildisart (Norton’s, I’ll happily buy you 2 pints of over priced piss at next years Festival if he wins!!)
I‘m hoping that after the thrashing Britain took at this seasons festival the computer will factor in a bit of patriotic pride and make it a British winner to restore some credibility
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Sporting Life's effort is almost identical, as myself and others have mentioned, Tiger Roll is even money to place.Comment
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Yes they have.Originally posted by Old Vic View Postand they used my virtual Paul Townend line.
plagiariistic Journalistic lurkeristicsComment
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One of the five places will be Tiger Roll but he won't win. Do you really just want your money back?
If you want to win £11 for each £10 then you bet Walk In The Mill each-way. If there is any logic to the result then he is in the five.Comment
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Kildisart at 50-1
Magic of Light 18-1
Kimberlite Candy 16-1
Walk in the Mill 16-1
Backed each of them 1pt each wayComment
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