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Sorry FinalFurlong, stolen your thunder for the final day! Was just doing my look over of the stats for those coming from fest again so thought I'd post the summary once more below, skipping the national out to leave the chat of that in its own thread:
3m Handicap Hurdle = Those who disappointed in a festival hanidcap and were dropped in weights have done well here. Taking this angle gives you Unowhatimeanharry, the old boy is down to 149 so may have workable mark. Didn't run in a handicap but Reserve Tank could be under estimated off 144 based on his previous course form. Those who avoided the festival completely do run well here and plenty to choose from in this, personally Southfield Harvest was a big fancy of mine for Cheltenham but was a NR in the pertemps, not sure if the reason was ground related but would be a concern if it was.
2m 4f Mersey Novice Hurdle = Many angle here. The strongest of 2 are those who skipped the festival having won 2 of the last 3 and in the last 3 years the best Ballymore form line horse placing. Unfortunately nobody comes here from the Ballymore so rules that out but My Drogo and Dreal Deal come here fresh. Dreal would need to be over his setback to fire here. Another interesting trend is horses coming from the Supreme stepping up in trip having placed in top 3 last 2 years. This gives you Ballyadam, who I personally think could come on for this trip round Aintree especially, issue is always his shoddy jumping when the going gets tough, but he should certainly be involved. Tiz's form in this is 1, 2, 1 so if you want one at a big price on this angle you have Striking A Pose, who to be honest needs a huge step up to be competitive here and surely isn't the class of his past 3 runners (Finian's Oscar, Reserve Tank & Lostintranslation.
2m Maghull Novice Chase = Best arkle form stands up here so shock Shishkin will win who saw that coming.... Think Gumball is a good play in the w/o market Aintree should suit and he was running a good race behind Shishkin at Chelts in November.
3m Liverpool Hurdle = Best Stayers Hurdle form usually places, so Paisley Park of course ticks that, whether the quicker flat Aintree and front running tactics will suit remains to be found out. 7 of the last 9 to finish top 3 were 7YO, and ITCF won last renewal, so thats two big ticks for Thyme Hill, so far these 2 have taught us nothing then. Speaking of ITCF he does look a big e/w price to me at 20/1 having already got the better of Roksana in this race before and surely having more pace that Lisnagar Oscar. The last 3 years has seen those stepping up from the Champion Hurdle have 2 wins and a 3rd place. No one fits that this year but 3 step up in trip from the festival; Roksana, Indefatigable & Thomas Darby, not sure I can see any of these over turning the form with the big 2 though.
3m 1f Handicap Chase = Here you want them to have either skipped the festival or be stepping up from the intermediate trip, with 2 of the last 3 winners coming from JLT or Brown Plate. One of those stepping up is Top Notch, could be interesting over a flat 3m with Luca Morgan claiming a handy 7lb so essentially running off 147 that looks very nice. Plenty haven't had a run at Cheltenham but for me an interesting one is Lalor at a big price of 16/1, clearly loves the course and does go well fresh, if he is ready to go he could be a big price. This is his first run over 3m but he got 2 and half at Cheltenham well enough so you would hope this translates here. Snow Leopardess is the other on my list for this, big fan of this mare and think she ran a respectable race in the NHC and the trip will suit perfectly.
2m 1f Bumper = Those who ran in the Champion Bumper and ran respectably do well here, this first pointer sends you to Super Six who was 5th in the Bumper and personally one I took out as a potential horse to watch early next year, 4YO don't tend to have the best record in this race and I'm not 100% sure if Aintree will suit. Those laid out for this with a touch of quality tend to be involved and up there, so Knappers Hill may fit this. The only other point of interest I found was Gavin Sheehan has ridden for 3 different stables over the 3 meets of this and has form of 3, 1 & 2, so his mount Brave Kingdom may be worth a look.
3m Handicap Hurdle = Those who disappointed in a festival hanidcap and were dropped in weights have done well here. Taking this angle gives you Unowhatimeanharry, the old boy is down to 149 so may have workable mark. Didn't run in a handicap but Reserve Tank could be under estimated off 144 based on his previous course form. Those who avoided the festival completely do run well here and plenty to choose from in this, personally Southfield Harvest was a big fancy of mine for Cheltenham but was a NR in the pertemps, not sure if the reason was ground related but would be a concern if it was.
2m 4f Mersey Novice Hurdle = Many angle here. The strongest of 2 are those who skipped the festival having won 2 of the last 3 and in the last 3 years the best Ballymore form line horse placing. Unfortunately nobody comes here from the Ballymore so rules that out but My Drogo and Dreal Deal come here fresh. Dreal would need to be over his setback to fire here. Another interesting trend is horses coming from the Supreme stepping up in trip having placed in top 3 last 2 years. This gives you Ballyadam, who I personally think could come on for this trip round Aintree especially, issue is always his shoddy jumping when the going gets tough, but he should certainly be involved. Tiz's form in this is 1, 2, 1 so if you want one at a big price on this angle you have Striking A Pose, who to be honest needs a huge step up to be competitive here and surely isn't the class of his past 3 runners (Finian's Oscar, Reserve Tank & Lostintranslation.
2m Maghull Novice Chase = Best arkle form stands up here so shock Shishkin will win who saw that coming.... Think Gumball is a good play in the w/o market Aintree should suit and he was running a good race behind Shishkin at Chelts in November.
3m Liverpool Hurdle = Best Stayers Hurdle form usually places, so Paisley Park of course ticks that, whether the quicker flat Aintree and front running tactics will suit remains to be found out. 7 of the last 9 to finish top 3 were 7YO, and ITCF won last renewal, so thats two big ticks for Thyme Hill, so far these 2 have taught us nothing then. Speaking of ITCF he does look a big e/w price to me at 20/1 having already got the better of Roksana in this race before and surely having more pace that Lisnagar Oscar. The last 3 years has seen those stepping up from the Champion Hurdle have 2 wins and a 3rd place. No one fits that this year but 3 step up in trip from the festival; Roksana, Indefatigable & Thomas Darby, not sure I can see any of these over turning the form with the big 2 though.
3m 1f Handicap Chase = Here you want them to have either skipped the festival or be stepping up from the intermediate trip, with 2 of the last 3 winners coming from JLT or Brown Plate. One of those stepping up is Top Notch, could be interesting over a flat 3m with Luca Morgan claiming a handy 7lb so essentially running off 147 that looks very nice. Plenty haven't had a run at Cheltenham but for me an interesting one is Lalor at a big price of 16/1, clearly loves the course and does go well fresh, if he is ready to go he could be a big price. This is his first run over 3m but he got 2 and half at Cheltenham well enough so you would hope this translates here. Snow Leopardess is the other on my list for this, big fan of this mare and think she ran a respectable race in the NHC and the trip will suit perfectly.
2m 1f Bumper = Those who ran in the Champion Bumper and ran respectably do well here, this first pointer sends you to Super Six who was 5th in the Bumper and personally one I took out as a potential horse to watch early next year, 4YO don't tend to have the best record in this race and I'm not 100% sure if Aintree will suit. Those laid out for this with a touch of quality tend to be involved and up there, so Knappers Hill may fit this. The only other point of interest I found was Gavin Sheehan has ridden for 3 different stables over the 3 meets of this and has form of 3, 1 & 2, so his mount Brave Kingdom may be worth a look.
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