Aintree Day 1

[charlie]

Moon Over Germany 14/1 with B365 is far too high a price. 7s with PP. Jordan Gainford on board and won in 2019. Cracking value.

The rain in 2019 was a massive factor in the win and ground will be good come Thursday so 14's looks about right to me.

[The King Pimm]

So this is where the Aintree debate is at!! Probably worth advertising these threads on the General thread on the Cheltenham section.

it’s a continuous shame the fields in many of the Aintree races are small but there are a few tasty races. The conundrum for me is do I back the horses kept fresh for Aintree or back the horses that bombed or didn’t last long at the Festival?? Is Zanza worth another chance?? Is Clan Des Obeux as good as the British handicapper thinks?? Is Tiger Roll about to reach his peak and fall off the other side?? WI’ll Nicky Henderson’s season finally get going??

[jack1092]

The rain in 2019 was a massive factor in the win and ground will be good come Thursday so 14's looks about right to me.

Went off 11/2 and bolted in. Gainford's stealing his claim, regardless of your view on how to interpret the claim itself (i know Archie doesn't take the 7lb literally). You could interpret his last run as a prep. We know the English remain to have terribly handicapped horses.

Is 14/1 right? I'd say he's single figures anyway.

Like Honeyball's horse as well.

[Lobos]

Think Jason The Millitant is the best bet on the 1st Day. Kept fresh specifically for this race , Will love the tight flat course and the 2 1/2 miles, has really solid form and the hottest combination of trainer/Jockey.

[SeanRock]

Think Jason The Millitant is the best bet on the 1st Day. Kept fresh specifically for this race , Will love the tight flat course and the 2 1/2 miles, has really solid form and the hottest combination of trainer/Jockey.

Agreed have doubled JTM e/w up with Elle Est Belle in the Mares Bumper!

Also doubled up Monmiral with Thyme Hill in a win double...

My only Aintree bets bar Discorama in the big one!

[jack1092]

If there's a horse i think is reasonably overpriced it is Wheres Maud Gone. She beat Salt Wind by 8ls on her debut, who has ran good races + since won a Fairyhouse maiden by 5ls RPR125. Sam Curling said after her win. "She is a good filly. She was actually entered in a point to point last weekend but she was showing so much pace we said we'd come here." Third won a bumper and ran decent over first 2 hurdle starts. 4th finished 1.5ls off recent Fairyhouse handicap winner Stand Off.
Sold to Laura Morgan, a trainer very adept with her bumper runners, 43 runners, 9 winners and 8 placed in the last 5 seasons, she went to Ayr and faced NI raider Condesa. She only ended up beating her a Nk but also gave her 7pd (she travelled very well but Condesa stuck on well). The Crawfords have been back doing well in bumpers this season especially in the UK. Condesa then went on to run very nicely behind Party Central at the weekend getting 4pds. Party Central was beaten a nk by Grangee off levels, who was beaten 8.5ls by Eileendover. Grangee carried 10pd more that day when beaten by Eileendover.
So by my workings that doesn't leave Eileendover an evens shot vs 20/1. O'Connor booked to ride.

1 favourite has won this in the last 9 renewals as well. In saying that, i don't think she should even be favourite and come the day she might well not be.

[CueCard]

Like a couple in Sametegal and Zanza that have already been mentioned quite heavily above.

Also will have a small e/w play on Where’s Maud Gone in the mares bumper - she’s very well-bred and I’ve heard that connections think they have a good one on their hands. I’d respect Elle Est Belle also, with her form at Cheltenham last month being clearly the best in the field imo.

[CueCard]

If there's a horse i think is reasonably overpriced it is Wheres Maud Gone. She beat Salt Wind by 8ls on her debut, who has ran good races + since won a Fairyhouse maiden by 5ls RPR125. Sam Curling said after her win. "She is a good filly. She was actually entered in a point to point last weekend but she was showing so much pace we said we'd come here." Third won a bumper and ran decent over first 2 hurdle starts. 4th finished 1.5ls off recent Fairyhouse handicap winner Stand Off.
Sold to Laura Morgan, a trainer very adept with her bumper runners, 43 runners, 9 winners and 8 placed in the last 5 seasons, she went to Ayr and faced NI raider Condesa. She only ended up beating her a Nk but also gave her 7pd (she travelled very well but Condesa stuck on well). The Crawfords have been back doing well in bumpers this season especially in the UK. Condesa then went on to run very nicely behind Party Central at the weekend getting 4pds. Party Central was beaten a nk by Grangee off levels, who was beaten 8.5ls by Eileendover. Grangee carried 10pd more that day when beaten by Eileendover.
So by my workings that doesn't leave Eileendover an evens shot vs 20/1. O'Connor booked to ride.

1 favourite has won this in the last 9 renewals as well. In saying that, i don't think she should even be favourite and come the day she might well not be.

Great minds think alike, Jack

On a serious note, your write up is excellent and strengthens my resolve with her. Fingers crossed for a good run.

[Middle_Of_March]

Very much keen on Waiting Patiently, Adagio, Moon Over Germany and Song For Someone on day 1. All just look far too big imo for various different reasons.

I will elaborate more tomorrow but in particular, Adagio is miles too big at 9/4 & Moon Over Germany is a 7s shot available at 14s. Value..

[FinalFurlong91]

Waiting patiently gives me headaches

He seems to run on into the places no matter the trip

Just for once just to see what happens I wish they'd ride him handier

[Pendil1111]

My selections so far

Manifesto Novice chase
The Shunter

I dont think this looks a very strong grade 1 at all, and I am happy to give the shunter a chance out of handicap company. Haven't backed him yet so this will be price dependant.

Betway Bowl
Mister Fisher e/w 10/1 (AP)

Think Clan is opposable going left handed, Tiger is opposable over normal fences, Waiting Patiently never wins these days, Native River would prefer softer ground and a stiffer track.

So sided with the younger horse e/w hoping he can get into a better jumping rhythm over 3 miles, though I'm worried about how hard a race the ryanair was but the double figures tempted me in.

Aintree Hurdle
Mcfabulous 7/2 (AP)

Horse hated Fontwell, didnt look happy from some way out going around such a tight track, back at a proper track I expect him to be back to his best and have had him pencilled in as the winner of this race all season.

Brewinupastorm looks the main danger but I'm hopeful he will reverse the form.

Red Rum handicap
Zanza e/w 10/1 (AP)

If staying on his feet, on a line though sky pirate and ibleo he is very very well handicapped.

Any day 1 fancies for you guys?

Day1
13.45 Phoenix Way (ew)
14.20 Adagio (nap)
14.50 Waiting Patiently
15.25 Abracadabras
Buveur DAir (ew)
16.05 Billaway
16.40 Getaway Trump
17.15 Wheres Maud Gone

Only suggestions and Buveur DAir is more in hope than anything else

[charlie]

Went off 11/2 and bolted in. Gainford's stealing his claim, regardless of your view on how to interpret the claim itself (i know Archie doesn't take the 7lb literally). You could interpret his last run as a prep. We know the English remain to have terribly handicapped horses.

Is 14/1 right? I'd say he's single figures anyway.

Like Honeyball's horse as well.

in 2019 is ran off 136 when the ground came up soft and the race wasn't too deep. 2 years on and he carries more weight even with the claim, has poor form on anything with good in the going description, and is racing in a better race. 14/1 might be a little big, but its by no means a gift.

[DenmanSacre]

If there's a horse i think is reasonably overpriced it is Wheres Maud Gone. She beat Salt Wind by 8ls on her debut, who has ran good races + since won a Fairyhouse maiden by 5ls RPR125. Sam Curling said after her win. "She is a good filly. She was actually entered in a point to point last weekend but she was showing so much pace we said we'd come here." Third won a bumper and ran decent over first 2 hurdle starts. 4th finished 1.5ls off recent Fairyhouse handicap winner Stand Off.
Sold to Laura Morgan, a trainer very adept with her bumper runners, 43 runners, 9 winners and 8 placed in the last 5 seasons, she went to Ayr and faced NI raider Condesa. She only ended up beating her a Nk but also gave her 7pd (she travelled very well but Condesa stuck on well). The Crawfords have been back doing well in bumpers this season especially in the UK. Condesa then went on to run very nicely behind Party Central at the weekend getting 4pds. Party Central was beaten a nk by Grangee off levels, who was beaten 8.5ls by Eileendover. Grangee carried 10pd more that day when beaten by Eileendover.
So by my workings that doesn't leave Eileendover an evens shot vs 20/1. O'Connor booked to ride.

1 favourite has won this in the last 9 renewals as well. In saying that, i don't think she should even be favourite and come the day she might well not be.

She was ill during her first bumper win according to the owners with gastric ulcers so she did well to win so impressively. She was in my tracker after that win and I was surprised at her price. She is definitely overpriced at 20/1.

[Stormez]

Think Jason The Millitant is the best bet on the 1st Day. Kept fresh specifically for this race , Will love the tight flat course and the 2 1/2 miles, has really solid form and the hottest combination of trainer/Jockey.

Henry is not so hot at the moment!

[Stormez]

My early stabs at tomorrow......

The Shunter
Adagio
Waiting Patiently
Latenightpass
On The Slopes