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Always found it odd that the Kelso and Haydock trials come after the weights but always a date that confirms the Spring festivals are just around the corner...Originally posted by archie View PostComment
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Been a while since I've posted here after an abject failure to predict place horses other than Tiger Roll (of course!) in this one last year. But we go again.
Weights are to be unveiled in a couple of weeks, and looking away from Tiger Roll/Magic of Light/Walk In The Mill, it'd be a good idea to have a look at ANIBALE FLY (33/1, 1/4 1-5 with b365, antepost not NRNB). This is based on a model I mentioned last year that has had the odd tweak, including pedigree, and a few other things. But... whatever. Why Anibale Fly?
- Drop in the handicap: the only horse of the first 5 home to have a lower mark now. 16.5L 5th in the GN and two 60L+ defeats this season explain that but, for purposes of studying form for this April, in my opinion you can disregard those runs this term. Both in Grade 1 company, the first was over an inadequate 20f, the second when December's Savills Chase at Leopardstown turned into a sprint off the final bend and a near-blanket finish. AF was outpaced on ground quicker than he'd prefer (3m on yielding too sharp for him these days) but he was only 10L down before the final fence when Geraghty stopped riding so as to look after him. It's wasn't the stinker of a run that it looks on paper.
His mark as topweight last April was OR164 but his Irish mark is now OR158 - identical to Magic Of Light’s (+7 on the GN) and Rathvinden’s (+4). It would be logical for the handicapper to mirror this parity for the GN, as the changes reflect the distances last April. Indeed, even if he compresses Tiger Roll’s mark from 172 to say 169, it would mean AF lining up broadly on level terms with all 3 of the them, compared to the last GN.
Incidentally, at OR158, he’d likely be around 12lbs well-in with GN 4th Walk In The Mill.
... So yeah, he's on level terms - what makes him the pick?
- Targeted prep: runs in the 3m Irish GC BUT will avoid the Cheltenham GC. It sounds like, as a result, prep is entirely focused on Aintree. Last year, AF was a close 2nd (all out, staying on strongly) behind Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup, notching a new RPR high of 174 (+5 on previous, recorded in the 2018 GC, prior to his 4th place in the GN with 11.08 on heavy). 22 days later he lumped topweight of 11.10 (under a deputising Mark Walsh) to finish a very creditable 5th (16.5L) at Aintree, behind a winner who'd also run at Cheltenham (but had cruised to victory, barely off the bridle) and 3 others who'd been prepped specifically for the GN.
He's only ten: surely he has more in the tank this time round?
- There could be a big drop in absolute weight: this benefits AF no end. As Ruby Walsh has said, you want probably at most 11st on your back to win a GN. If every 1lb above 11 stone is exponentially harder to carry in a GN, all other things being equal, it works just as powerfully in reverse and, if Tiger Roll lines up on 4 April, even with weight compression, AF is likely to be carrying around 11 stone - possibly even a little under. That's a meaningful drop from top weight.
So with two previous places, could it be third time lucky? It certainly could be - strong place potential at 11st, and might yet even be in it to win it outright. There are GN debutants with similar profiles but Aintree is unique so AF's experience over the fences means he's on the slip. Hopefully at a bigger price come Sunday evening but 33/1 is not to be sniffed at.Comment
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I like that Pads, excellent case made...Comment
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With you with both of those. Backed them straight after the Becher.Comment
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I had an antepost slip for that too. Next year they're saying for that one now.Comment
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Kimberlite Candy to go straight to the G.National - racing t.v today.Comment
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Anyone know of any links to get live updates of the announcements of the weights tomorrow?Comment
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Any racing media outlet/journalist via twitter usually...Originally posted by OscarWhisky View PostComment
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Probably will be here first https://twitter.com/RacenewsService?...Ctwgr%5Eauthor unless someone breaks the embargoComment
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Tiger Roll 11st 10lb
���� Delta Work 11st 10lb
���� Bristol De Mai 11st 8lb
���� Native River 11st 6lb
���� Anibale Fly 11st 2lb
���� Aso 11st 2lb
���� Cadmium 11st 2lb
���� Elegant Escape 11st 2lb
���� Top Ville Ben 11st 2lb
���� Total Recall 10st 13lb
���� Magic Of Light 10st 12lb
���� Burrows Saint 10st 10lb
���� Lake View Lad 10st 8lb
���� Vintage Clouds 10st 8lb
���� Pleasant Company 10st 7lb
���� Potters Corner 10st 6lbComment
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Every chance something runs from out the handicap, when did that last happen ?Comment
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Lovely weight for Native River; surely goes here nowComment
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Exactly what I thought FTM! Just backed him myself at 22/1 with the Hills boost. Pleased with the mark for Burrows Saint too as he's the only other Ive backed.Originally posted by FaugheenTheMachine View PostLast edited by Can't Catch Me; 11 February 2020, 04:00 PM.Comment
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